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    855: Russia's Wagner Group and Why Coups Fail | Out of the Loop

    en-usJuly 04, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Sharing your home with Airbnb guestsIncorporating an Airbnb-style guest room brings extra income and allows you to share your world with travelers. Personal touches make guests feel welcome, and staying informed is crucial for understanding complex events.

      Turning your home into an Airbnb not only brings in extra income but also allows you to share a piece of your world with travelers. The hosts, Jen and Jordan, share their experience of incorporating an Airbnb-style guest room in their own home and the joy of making their guests feel welcome with personal touches. They emphasize the value of making your home an active part of your adventures instead of letting it gather dust. Additionally, they discuss the importance of being informed and critical thinkers, as demonstrated in their latest episode about the attempted coup in Russia and the role of Wagner, a private military group. This episode highlights the value of understanding complex events and the importance of seeking expert insights to make sense of the world around us.

    • An Appeal to Authority Turns into a Mutiny: The Wagner Group's Coup Attempt in RussiaThe Wagner Group, a private military force led by Evgeny Prigozhin, attempted to stage a coup in Russia but it evolved into a mutiny or rebellion. Built from a catering company, Wagner has been involved in conflicts worldwide, including Ukraine, Syria, and Libya. Its lack of legal status didn't stop it from influencing global politics.

      Wagner, a private military force led by Evgeny Prigozhin, attempted to stage what appeared to be a coup in Russia, but it quickly evolved into a mutiny or rebellion. Prigozhin, a former chef, built Wagner from a catering company to a powerful military force through connections to Vladimir Putin. The force first emerged in Eastern Ukraine during the conflict in 2014 and was likely part of the Russian government's covert efforts to support local rebellions. Despite its lack of legal status, Wagner has been involved in various conflicts around the world, including Syria and Libya. The attempted coup was an appeal to authority initially, but it quickly escalated and may have been a response to internal power struggles within the Russian government. The event highlights the influence and power of private military forces in global politics.

    • Russian private military company hires mercenaries with neo-Nazi ideologiesThe Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, recruits mercenaries from various backgrounds, including those with neo-Nazi ideologies, due to their shared white nationalist beliefs. They also recruit from penal colonies to quickly replenish losses, but effectiveness is uncertain.

      The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, has recruited mercenaries with various backgrounds, including those with neo-Nazi ideologies. This overlap can be explained by the fact that these groups often share ideologies, particularly white nationalism. Many mercenaries come from cultures that promote self-defense, martial arts, and guns. The state's need for violent individuals willing to work for money overrides the concern for their ideologies. Initially, Wagner was sidelined during the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but they were later called upon due to their extensive rolodex and ability to recruit manpower. In a desperate attempt to replenish their losses, Wagner turned to Russian penal colonies, offering convicts freedom in exchange for their service in the war. This strategy allowed Wagner to quickly recruit large numbers of men, but it is unclear how effective they were on the battlefield.

    • Convicts Fighting for Wagner Group in Ukraine Offered Reduced Sentences or FreedomConvicts, offered freedom or shorter sentences, join the Wagner Group to fight in Ukraine. They view their commander with respect and don't see themselves as victims, despite risks.

      The Wagner Group, a private military company involved in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, offers convicts reduced sentences or even freedom in exchange for fighting on the front lines. This self-selection process results in a high-risk, high-reward situation for the recruits, who often have little to lose. Despite the potential dangers and uncertainty, many of these convicts felt a sense of respect for their commander, Yevgeny Prigoshin, and did not view themselves as victims. The exact relationship between the Wagner Group and the Russian government remains unclear, with conflicting statements from Russian officials, but it is apparent that the group represents a complex and difficult-to-understand entity that is both profit-driven and aligned with Russian state interests.

    • Wagner Group's Dual Capability: Working for Russian Government and IndependentlyThe Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, can operate under the Russian government's umbrella and independently, making it challenging to predict their actions and potentially risking reputational damage through conflicts with other nations.

      Wagner Group, a private military company with Russian origins, stands out in the industry due to its unique ability to operate both under the Russian government's umbrella and independently, offering its services to other governments. This dual capability makes it difficult to analyze and predict their actions, as they can receive state contracts while also seeking profit opportunities elsewhere. An example of this can be seen in their involvement in Syria, where they initially worked with the Russian military but later struck a deal with the Syrian government to protect oil fields in exchange for a percentage of the profits. However, an incident in 2018 involving a clash with American forces at a Kurdish base resulted in significant reputational risk for Wagner, demonstrating the potential consequences of their operations, regardless of who is in power.

    • Rivalries within Russian system may have caused Syria clash between Wagner and US militaryThe use of private military companies in conflicts by major powers can lead to complex situations, with potential for plausible deniability and significant consequences from public backlash and scrutiny.

      The clash between the Wagner Group and the US military in Syria may have been a result of internal tensions and rivalries within the Russian system, leading to plausible deniability and a deliberate trap for Wagner. The funding of Wagner is multifaceted, with reported state budget allocations and profits from mining concessions in Africa. The use of private military companies in Africa by major powers like Russia and the US is not new, but the public backlash and scrutiny over military casualties can lead to significant consequences. The incident in Syria highlights the weak command and control between Wagner and the Russian military, and the complex motivations behind their actions. Further investigation is needed to fully understand the events that transpired.

    • Complex alliances in conflict zones with PMCsRussian PMC Wagner aided Central African govt during civil war alongside UN peacekeepers and Rwandan forces, highlighting unusual partnerships in conflict zones and PMCs' growing role.

      The use of private military contractors (PMCs) like Wagner in conflict zones, such as the Central African Republic, presents complex and unusual alliances. Despite being Russian, Wagner was invited by the Central African government to aid in defending the capital during a civil war, alongside UN peacekeepers and Rwandan forces. The unusual partnership was necessary due to the weak local government and the inability of UN peacekeepers to effectively keep the peace. Wagner's military solutions were popular among some Central Africans, despite being at odds with the UN's peaceful approach. This trend is also seen in Mali, where the UN is pulling out and leaving a power vacuum. The presence of PMCs like Wagner, offering military solutions, next to UN peacekeeping forces is a potential reality for the future, regardless of their opposing methods. The Central African Republic is just one example of the complex alliances that can form in conflict zones, with PMCs playing an increasingly significant role.

    • People in conflict areas may prioritize survival over geopolitics or disinformationIn conflict areas, individuals may choose the seemingly less harmful option despite potential consequences, and historical power struggles can influence such decisions.

      In areas of conflict, people often face a choice between two unsavory options, and they may choose the one that seems less harmful at the moment, even if it comes with consequences. This was the argument made about the Wagner Group's influence in the Central African Republic, where people's priorities are focused on survival and day-to-day improvements, rather than geopolitics or disinformation. The coup in Russia, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner, was an unprecedented move in recent Russian history, as it involved a direct show of force to gain the attention of the leader and secure what one wants in a feudalistic system. These actions, though surprising, are remnants of historical power struggles.

    • Power struggle between Wagner and Putin in RussiaThe power dynamics within Russia's government are complex, with paramilitary group Wagner challenging Putin's authority, potentially impacting Russia's military operations and Ukraine's war effort.

      The power dynamics within the Russian government are more complex than what meets the eye. The paramilitary group Wagner, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has shown the ability to assert its own agency and challenge the authority of President Putin. This was evident when Prigozhin ordered Wagner's withdrawal from Ukraine, despite Putin's declarations of victory in Bakhmut. The consequences of this power struggle are significant for both Russia and Ukraine. For Russia, it may face challenges in financing and sourcing equipment for its military operations in Africa and elsewhere. For Ukraine, it presents an opportunity to capitalize on Russia's internal strife and potentially weaken its enemy. The incident also highlights the importance of understanding the intricacies of Russian politics and the role of key individuals like Prigozhin.

    • The importance of political legitimacy during times of warThe Wagner Group's attempted coup in Ukraine highlights the challenges of maintaining political legitimacy, even for powerful nations and armies, and the unexpected resistance from the Russian army added to the confusion.

      The complexity of the situation surrounding the Wagner Group's attempted coup in Ukraine highlights the importance of political legitimacy, especially during times of war. The Russian regime didn't want to be seen as corrupt or out of touch with their soldiers, and killing the group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, would have validated his argument. The lack of clear enemies and significant polarization made it difficult for a coup to take place, and the Russian army's unexpected resistance added to the confusion. While the events may have been disappointing for those expecting a more dramatic outcome, it's a reminder that even powerful nations and armies are made up of human beings who may not be as willing to use violence as expected. The situation also underscores the challenges of understanding and navigating the complexities of Russian politics.

    • Uncertainty for Wagner Group after Ukraine withdrawalDictator ousters often involve military coups, and Wagner Group's Prigozhin may need military support or face purges, potentially leading to a move to China or quiet acceptance.

      The Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, is facing uncertainty after their recent withdrawal from Ukraine. Prigozhin, who has survived despite his controversial actions during Putin's rule, may be considering new alliances or quiet acceptance by the West as his only lifeline. Coups, as Brian Klaas, a former show guest and expert in the field, explains, have been a major way dictators have been ousted since World War 2. The military's involvement is crucial in these regimes, and Prigozhin may have to find a way to secure their support or face potential purges. The Wagner Group's future organizationally remains unclear, with possibilities including a move to China or quiet acceptance of their current situation. Prigozhin may be mentally preparing himself for a nationalistic martyr role, but the challenges ahead are significant.

    • Coup plot by Wagner mercenaries against Russian governmentPerception and coordination, not just force, are crucial in coup plots. Despite lacking resources, Wagner tried to win through convincing others, but failed due to lack of support and timing.

      In a coup plot, strength and force don't necessarily guarantee success. Instead, it's all about perception and convincing others that the outcome is inevitable. This was demonstrated in the attempted coup by the Wagner mercenary group against the Russian government. Despite not having air assets and facing the entire Russian military, they were trying to win through a coordination game, attempting to convince others to join their side. This coup plot failed due to its inability to maintain itself for long enough and the unwillingness of key figures to make a decision. It seems that Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, may have misread the situation and overestimated his chances of success. Ultimately, the Russian military and population showed little interest in the coup, making it a comically failed attempt. The reason for the coup attempt remains unclear, but it may have been driven by delusion, ambition, or a misreading of Putin's response.

    • Putin's quick response and uncertainty of loyalty thwarted coup attemptDespite an attempted coup against him, Putin remained in power due to his ability to assert dominance, purge potential adversaries, and implement long-term coup-proofing measures.

      The recent attempted coup in Russia against President Putin was not successful due to Putin's ability to prepare and the uncertainty of loyalty within his regime and potential adversaries. The coup did not follow the typical pattern of a successful coup, which often involves a quick arrest of the dictator and a swift seizure of power. Instead, Putin was able to assert his dominance through visible shows of strength and purges. The attempted coup also revealed to Putin and other elites that challenges to his power exist, potentially leading to increased paranoia and purges to reassert control. Additionally, Putin has implemented long-term coup-proofing measures, such as creating structures to protect himself and playing various factions against each other. These measures, along with Putin's quick response, likely contributed to the failure of the coup.

    • Maintaining Control in Dictatorships: The Balance Between Coup Prevention and Civil War AvoidanceDictators employ various strategies to prevent coups, including delegating contingency plans, orchestrating movements, and suppressing internal power. However, these tactics can increase the risk of civil war.

      Speed and timing are crucial factors in successful coups, often taking place within a matter of hours. Dictators understand this risk and take extensive measures to prevent vulnerabilities, including delegating contingency plans during international travel and orchestrating movements to avoid being caught off guard. Putin, for instance, has employed various strategies to maintain control, such as creating infighting among factions, utilizing elite special forces, and even exiling popular figures to prevent potential coups. However, these tactics also increase the risk of civil war, as suppressing internal power can lead to outsider violence. Ultimately, the delicate balance between coup prevention and civil war avoidance is a constant challenge for dictatorships.

    • Maintaining Power: Dilemmas for DictatorsDictators face tough choices between strengthening military to quell opposition and appearing weak, with a moderate purge being the most effective approach to send a clear message without alienating the elite class.

      Dictators like Putin face constant trade-offs in maintaining power. While strengthening the military to quell opposition in Ukraine is crucial, doing so risks creating more power centers and potential threats to the regime. Conversely, appearing weak invites further challenges. The most effective approach, according to political science research, is a moderate purge that sends a clear message without alienating the elite class. Putin's response to the coup plot remains uncertain, but recent raids on Wagner officers' families suggest a cautious approach to maintain control while avoiding further instability.

    • Russian oligarch Evgeny Prigozhin faces potential danger to his life due to geopolitical tensionsGeopolitical tensions may lead to conflicts, significant drops in agricultural output, and the possible end of the European Union, posing challenges to the globalized way of life we've known for decades

      Evgeny Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch, is likely to face danger to his life in the coming years due to geopolitical tensions. Brian Klaas, a political scientist, predicts this on his podcast "Power Corrupts" and in his Substack newsletter, "The Garden of Forking Paths." Klaas also discusses the potential global food supply issues resulting from the disintegration of the European Union and the end of the German manufacturing model. He believes the next decade will bring significant challenges to the globalized way of life that we've known for the past 75 years. These issues include potential conflicts and competition, significant drops in agricultural output, and the possible end of the European Union. Overall, the geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly, and it's essential to be aware of these developments. For more insights, check out episode 781 of The Jordan Harbinger Show.

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    • As a cancer patient struggling with massive student loans and disability assistance denial, what legal help and guidance is available for navigating private loan regulations while fighting for survival?
    • You've invented a non-functional plastic object that brings laughter to all who behold its absurdity. You want to protect the IP so you can profit from this stroke of comedic novelty, but you can't ignore the potential environmental impact of manufacturing such an item en masse. What should you do?
    • Have any questions, comments, or stories you'd like to share with us? Drop us a line at friday@jordanharbinger.com!
    • Connect with Jordan on Twitter at @JordanHarbinger and Instagram at @jordanharbinger.
    • Connect with Gabriel on Twitter at @GabeMizrahi and Instagram @gabrielmizrahi.

    Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/985

    This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: jordanharbinger.com/deals

    Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course!

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    984: Susan Casey | Unraveling Mysteries in the Ocean's Darkest Depths

    984: Susan Casey | Unraveling Mysteries in the Ocean's Darkest Depths

    What challenges can the ocean help us meet, and what must we do to safeguard its treasures? The Underworld author Susan Casey dives deep for answers here!

    What We Discuss with Susan Casey:

    • The ocean plays a crucial role in regulating the Earth's climate and serves as the largest carbon sink on the planet, making its preservation essential for mitigating climate change.
    • The ocean is home to a fascinating array of creatures that have adapted to extreme conditions, such as iron-breathing microbes, glass sponges, and jellyfish that can reverse their life cycle.
    • Pollution, including plastics, chemical weapons, and nuclear waste, has severely impacted the ocean ecosystem, with some deep-sea creatures found to have plastic particles embedded in their organs.
    • There are an estimated three million shipwrecks on the ocean floor, preserving valuable historical artifacts and information — such as the Antikythera mechanism, an ancient Greek analog computer.
    • Exploring the ocean can lead to groundbreaking discoveries in medicine, Earth's history, and climate, providing valuable insights for addressing humanity's challenges — provided we safeguard this treasury of knowledge for current and future generations.
    • And much more...

    Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/984

    This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: jordanharbinger.com/deals

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    Sign up for Six-Minute Networking -- our free networking and relationship development mini course -- at jordanharbinger.com/course!

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    Sign up for Six-Minute Networking -- our free networking and relationship development mini course -- at jordanharbinger.com/course!

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    Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/705

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    • Gabe relays the tragic story of a paranoid schizophrenic neighbor that illustrates just how destabilizing unchecked mental illness can be for family members, friends, neighbors, and the patients themselves.
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    • Have any questions, comments, or stories you'd like to share with us? Drop us a line at friday@jordanharbinger.com!
    • Connect with Jordan on Twitter at @JordanHarbinger and Instagram at @jordanharbinger.
    • Connect with Gabriel on Twitter at @GabeMizrahi.

    Sign up for Six-Minute Networking -- our free networking and relationship development mini course -- at jordanharbinger.com/course!

    Like this show? Please leave us a review here -- even one sentence helps! Consider leaving your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!