Podcast Summary
Metacrisis: Our Collective Inability to Solve Complex Problems: The metacrisis, a term used to describe our collective inability to effectively solve complex problems, is a root cause of many pressing issues such as addiction, disinformation, polarization, and climate change. Reframing these issues as problems with our problem-solving capabilities could be a key leverage point for intervention.
Many of the world's pressing issues, such as addiction, disinformation, polarization, and climate change, may be symptoms of a larger, underlying problem, which some call the metacrisis. This metacrisis is rooted in our collective inability to effectively solve complex problems. As inventor and engineer Charles Kettering famously said, "a problem well stated is a problem half solved." Therefore, reframing these issues as problems with our problem-solving capabilities could be a key leverage point for intervention. Daniel Schmachtenberger, a problem-solving expert and my dear friend, joins us on this episode to explore this idea further. In the coming weeks, we will be releasing two versions of the episode and hosting a podcast club where Daniel and I will engage in a live dialogue with our audience about this topic. Stay tuned for details in the show notes.
Unintended Consequences of Well-Intended Solutions: Well-intended solutions can have unintended negative consequences. It's crucial to consider long-term effects and strive for solutions that minimize harm and promote positive outcomes.
Well-intended solutions to problems can unintendedly create new and sometimes even worse issues. This was evident in the example given about trying to protect elephants from poaching in Africa, which led poachers to target other endangered animals instead. Similarly, efforts to solve hunger through unsustainable commercial agriculture can harm the environment and even worsen the long-term issue. In the digital world, the goal of organizing information and making it accessible through search engines has led to unintended consequences, such as breaking social solidarity and epistemic capacity necessary for democracy. These examples illustrate the importance of considering the potential long-term effects of our actions and striving for solutions that minimize harm and promote positive outcomes.
Three primary sources of existential risk: Rival risk dynamics, environmental degradation, and exponential technology pose significant risks to human civilization's long-term survival and require proactive management
Existential risks to human civilization stem from three primary sources: rival risk dynamics, the subsuming of our substrate, and exponential technology. Rival risk dynamics, such as arms races and the tragedy of the commons, create a race for power and resources that can lead to self-destruction. The subsuming of our substrate, or the environments that support human civilization, is eroded by rivalrous dynamics, leading to degradation of resources like the environment, attention, and social trust. Exponential technology, which grows and improves at an exponential rate, creates increasingly greater risks as the power and capabilities of technology outpace our ability to manage them. These three generator functions of existential risk have contributed to the current level of unmanaged global existential risk, despite the fact that catastrophic risks were not a significant concern for most people before World War II. Understanding these underlying drivers is crucial for addressing and mitigating existential risks to ensure the long-term survival and flourishing of human civilization.
From local to global catastrophic risk: The technological advancements after World War 2 led to a shift from local to global catastrophic risk, necessitating the creation of a globalized world system to prevent another major war.
The world before and after World War 2 was fundamentally different due to the shift from local to global catastrophic risk. Before World War 2, individual kingdoms faced existential risks, but these were limited to specific regions. However, with the technological advancements during and after World War 2, the potential for catastrophic risk became a global concern for the first time. This led to the creation of a globalized world system, including mutual assured destruction, globalization, and economic interdependence, to prevent another major war. However, the post-World War 2 solutions have limitations, as the exponential growth of the economy and the availability of new, difficult-to-monitor catastrophe weapons have created new challenges. The old solutions have ended, and new ones must be found to address the current and emerging catastrophic risks.
A new cultural enlightenment for managing global risks: Daniel proposes a new societal model to manage global risks caused by exponential technologies, focusing on individual rights and responsibilities, increased access to education, and civic engagement through technology.
According to Daniel, the current global institutions, including the Bretton Woods agreements and the United Nations, are no longer sufficient to manage existential risks caused by exponential technologies. Instead, we are heading towards two undesirable outcomes: oppression or chaos. To avoid these, Daniel proposes a new cultural enlightenment where individuals have both rights and responsibilities. This can be achieved by increasing access to education and incentivizing civic engagement through technology. The goal is to create a society where individuals are maximally informed and engaged in their own governance. This new attractor would enable us to effectively manage global risks without succumbing to oppression or chaos.
Embracing logic, science, and rationality with exponential technologies: Personalize education, increase media literacy, foster intrinsic motivation, reimagine economics and education, and develop creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence in a post-AI world.
As we move from a culture rooted in superstition and irrationality to one that embraces logic, science, and rationality, we must harness exponential technologies to build new systems of collective intelligence and social technology. This includes using attention tech to personalize education, increase media literacy, and foster intrinsic motivation. With the impending automation of jobs, we must reimagine economics and education, shifting from a labor-focused economy to one where people don't need jobs. The role of humans in a post-AI, robotic automation world lies in fostering creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence – skills that machines cannot replicate.
Embracing technology while maintaining transparency and accountability: Using uncorruptible ledgers like blockchain for government spending and contracts can increase transparency, reduce corruption, and lead to more efficient use of resources.
As technology continues to evolve, it's essential to reimagine education, work, and social systems within this new context. Daniel's perspective emphasizes the need to answer existential questions about meaningful human life and a good civilization that maximizes opportunities for all. While China is addressing these questions for a closed society, Daniel encourages a digital open society solution. However, we must approach these challenges with humility and recognize that we don't have all the answers. To mitigate risks, we need humane technology that supports cultural wisdom in managing exponential tech. Daniel proposes using uncorruptible ledgers like blockchain for government spending and contracts to increase transparency and reduce corruption. This could lead to more efficient use of resources, better national security, and less taxes. Additionally, uncorruptible ledgers can provide provenance on supply chains, making them closed loop and internalizing externalities. Overall, embracing technology while maintaining transparency and accountability is crucial for creating a good civilization in this rapidly changing world.
Harnessing Technology for a More Equitable and Transparent World: Blockchain prevents corruption, open data ensures transparency, AI generates deep fakes and propositions, Consilience Project inspires innovation and solves global problems, use technology responsibly for a more open, efficient, and equitable society
Emerging technologies, while they have the potential to create significant risks and challenges, can also be harnessed to address complex issues and build a more equitable and transparent world. The use of blockchain technology to prevent corruption, for instance, can lead to real justice and historical accuracy. In the realm of science, an open data platform ensures transparency and accountability, enabling automatic correction of errors. Artificial intelligence, on the other hand, can generate deep fakes and undermine the epistemic commons, but it can also be used to analyze sentiment and generate propositions based on shared values. The Consilience Project, with its focus on interconnectivity and underlying drivers, exemplifies the potential for technology to inspire innovation and tackle global problems. Ultimately, the key is to recognize the potential of these technologies and use them responsibly to create a more open, efficient, and equitable society.
Understanding the causes of societal issues: Examining the core drivers behind societal challenges can lead to progress and innovative solutions. Examples include using transparent technology and collective voting systems.
Understanding the underlying causes of complex societal issues is essential for finding solutions. The current state of the world can seem overwhelming with numerous problems, but by examining the core drivers behind them, we can make progress. The breakdown in sense-making and control of human behavior, as highlighted by the documentary "The Social Dilemma," is a significant contributor to many of the challenges we face. By increasing our cultural understanding of these issues, we can begin to innovate and employ technology in a conscious and inspiring way. The goal is not to create a small group of people to build the future, but to establish design constraints and engage in meaningful conversations. Examples of progress include the use of transparent blockchain technology and collective voting systems. As Charles Kettering famously said, "A problem well understood is half solved."
A call to cultural enlightenment to address technological dangers: Embrace the challenges of technological dangers and reorient your life for a better future
The current technological landscape requires a cultural shift towards understanding the potential dangers and reorienting our lives to create a better future. Daniel Schmachtenberger, a founding member of the Consilience Project, encourages listeners to view this process as a form of cultural enlightenment. His personal experience with the core drivers of these issues led him to dedicate his life to preventing them. Schmachtenberger urges the audience to gain the strength to face these challenges head-on and orient their lives accordingly if they take the risks seriously. Your Undivided Attention, produced by the Center For Humane Technology, is a podcast that aims to inspire listeners to do just that. The team behind the podcast includes Stephanie Lep as the executive producer, Natalie Jones and Noor Al Samrahi as senior and associate producers, Dan Ketme as editor at large, and original music and sound design by Ryan Hayes Holiday and David Sestoy. The podcast is supported by various foundations and individuals, and Tristan Harris, the host, expresses gratitude to the listeners for their undivided attention.
