Podcast Summary
Meta Crisis: Outpacing Solutions to Catastrophic Risks: Technological advancements create larger jumps in power, leading to new risks and increasing catastrophic risks, which we're struggling to solve comprehensively despite progress in some areas.
We're facing a "meta crisis" of increasing catastrophic risks, which seem to be outpacing our ability to solve them. This is not just about climate change or social media, but an interconnected set of problems with underlying causes. The rapid advancement of technology is creating larger jumps in power, and new categories of tech bring new risks, from cyberattacks to weaponized drones to artificial intelligence. Despite progress in some areas, we're far from comprehensive solutions to major issues like nuclear disarmament, climate change, and the fragility of the globalized world. The question is not just about the number of separate issues, but why human behavior is increasing catastrophic risk as our technological capacity grows. We've failed to prevent arms races and major tragedy of the commons issues. Daniel Schmachtenberger, our guest, will delve deeper into this topic and discuss the inadequate frameworks we're using to address existential crises.
Interconnected global issues require holistic solutions: Addressing complex global issues requires considering their underlying causes and interconnections, rather than just their symptoms, to find sustainable and equitable solutions.
Many complex global issues, such as climate change, poverty, and geopolitical conflicts, are interconnected and cannot be effectively addressed in isolation. Tackling these problems at their root causes, rather than just their symptoms, is crucial for finding sustainable solutions. For instance, attempting to solve an environmental issue like elephant poaching without addressing poverty or people's mindset towards animals might lead to the problem simply shifting to another vulnerable species or area. Similarly, addressing hunger through unsustainable agricultural practices could lead to even worse long-term environmental consequences. Furthermore, opposing climate change solutions due to their potential economic impacts can create geopolitical tensions and conflicts. By recognizing the interconnected nature of these issues and working towards solutions that consider the broader context, we can make progress towards a more sustainable and equitable world. Ignoring the underlying drivers and focusing solely on symptoms is not only ineffective but can also create new problems.
Perverse incentives in macroeconomics lead to global issues: Understanding and addressing perverse incentives in macroeconomics is crucial for solving global issues, such as war, addiction, and overfishing. We need to fundamentally change incentives to align with individual and planetary well-being.
The underlying driver of many global issues lies in the perverse incentives built into macroeconomic structures. This includes situations where the value of dead resources or harmed individuals is greater than the value of living ones, leading to harmful activities. This perverse incentive can be seen in various areas, such as war, addiction, and overfishing. To address these issues, we need to fundamentally change the incentives at the level of macroeconomics so that they align with the well-being of individuals and the planet. This means solving the root causes of these issues rather than just treating the symptoms. For example, the attention harvesting economy, while initially intended to solve problems, has led to unintended consequences such as the breakdown of social solidarity and epistemic capacity necessary for democracy. To effectively solve these complex problems, we need to understand the interconnected nature of these issues and use problem-solving frameworks that address the root causes rather than just treating the symptoms.
The need for better stewardship of exponential power to avoid self-induced collapse: Civilizations have a finite lifespan and often collapse due to self-induced causes like resource depletion, conflicts, and institutional decay. With the advancement of technology, catastrophic risks have become a global possibility, requiring us to develop good decision-making processes and wisdom to be adequate stewards of exponential power.
The exponential growth of technology and power has led us to a critical juncture where we must become better stewards of this power before it causes existential harm. The history of civilizations shows that they have a finite lifespan and often collapse due to self-induced causes, such as overconsumption of resources, increasing conflicts, or institutional decay. Before World War 2, catastrophic risk was localized, but with the advancement of technology, it became a global possibility for the first time ever. The race to personalize content between tech giants like YouTube and TikTok is an example of an arms race, and the tragedy of the commons scenario is evident in the depletion of resources and the increase in environmental damage. To avoid self-terminating dynamics and catastrophic risks, we must develop the good decision-making processes and wisdom necessary to be adequate stewards of exponential power. Civilizations have died in the past due to self-induced causes, and we must learn from history to ensure a sustainable future.
From World War 2 to a Globalized System: Preventing Another Major War: Post-WW2, a globalized system aimed at preventing wars led to economic prosperity but also created high fragility. Amidst exponential growth, it's crucial to maintain interconnectivity while increasing system resilience to cascading failures, as the old concept of mutual assured destruction no longer applies.
The world before and after World War 2 was fundamentally different, leading to a new globalized system aimed at preventing another major war. This system, based on mutual assured destruction, economic interdependence, and globalization, allowed for unconventional wars and prosperity. However, the exponential growth of the materials economy has led to planetary boundaries issues, creating high fragility and potential for cascading failures. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a reminder of this fragility, with second and third order effects causing food insecurity, extreme poverty, and other challenges. Moving forward, it's crucial to maintain the benefits of interconnectivity while increasing antifragility in the system, as the mutual assured destruction concept no longer applies in a world with multiple catastrophic risks.
Managing the Impact of Exponential Technologies: The world's risk landscape has evolved, requiring new social systems to manage the impact of exponential technologies like nuclear power, computation, rockets, social media, and artificial intelligence.
The world's risk landscape has evolved significantly since the post-World War 2 era, with new and decentralized exponential technologies posing unprecedented challenges. Nuclear weapons, though a major concern, are no longer the only exponential technology shaping the global stage. Technologies like nuclear power, computation, and rockets were once a suite of new technologies that could be developed due to advances in physics and chemistry. These technologies represented a competition among social ideologies, with the ability to develop and implement them at scale determining the winner. The US, initially behind, caught up and eventually harnessed the power of nuclear technology, leading to a new social system aimed at stabilizing this exponential technology. However, this system has proven insufficient in managing the current landscape of multiple exponential technologies, including nuclear weapons, as well as decentralized technologies like social media and artificial intelligence. The central challenge now is to develop the capacity for global coordination to solve these complex, interconnected global problems. Some examples of exponential technologies include nuclear power, computation, rockets, social media, and artificial intelligence. These technologies have the potential to cause harm intentionally or unintentionally, requiring new social systems to manage their impact.
State investment drove major tech advancements: Despite common belief, state investment, not markets, primarily fueled significant tech advancements in the past, and its control will shape the future with exponential tech like AI, quantum computing, and advanced materials science.
The technological advancements during the post-World War 2 period, particularly in the areas of nuclear technology, rocketry, and computation, were primarily driven by state investment and control rather than market forces. This contradicts the common belief that markets are the primary drivers of innovation. The technological leap during this time was so significant that it fundamentally shifted the balance of power in the world. We are currently witnessing another technological shift, driven by exponential tech, which includes AI, quantum computing, and advanced materials science. Exponential tech is unique because it allows for the creation of better versions of itself, leading to a compounding effect. The control of this technology will determine the future direction of society, and those who can harness its power will have significant influence. Exponential tech is centered around computation, specifically AI, and its application to various fields, including hardware, sensors, and physical technology. Understanding the role of state investment in driving technological innovation is crucial for navigating the future.
The unpredictability of exponential technologies: Exponential technologies, like social media platforms, learn from data and improve recursively, leading to self-compounding loops that can manipulate behavior and create natural monopolies, challenging current laws, governance, and economic theories.
Our intuitions are unreliable when it comes to forecasting the impact of exponential technologies, such as social media platforms. These systems learn from data and improve recursively, leading to self-compounding loops that can hijack our nervous systems and manipulate behavior. The more users and data these platforms have, the better they become at predicting and providing content that keeps users engaged. This recursive process can lead to natural monopolies in tech industries, making it difficult for competitors to keep up. Our current laws, governance, and economic theories were developed to solve problems of a different kind and magnitude, and are now being obsoleted by these new technologies. It's crucial to understand the unique challenges and power dynamics of these self-reinforcing systems in order to navigate the complexities of the digital age.
The shift from old to new social systems in the face of technology: Old social systems may become obsolete with technological advancements, but new possibilities for improving upon them exist. Recognizing this and designing effective new systems is crucial for delivering human values like liberty, justice, and checks and balances.
As technology advances, old social systems and ways of organizing society may become obsolete and inadequate for addressing new problems. The example given is the shift from print media to the internet and social media, which has made it increasingly difficult to maintain an informed citizenry and effective democratic processes. The 4th estate, which was once essential for democracy, is now dead in its old form. However, new technologies also bring new possibilities for improving upon old systems and delivering human values like liberty, justice, and checks and balances. It's crucial to recognize this and strive to design new social systems that effectively utilize these technologies to serve these values. Throughout history, new technologies have led to the emergence of new social systems, providing hope that this can be feasible in the face of the current technological shift. Scholars like Marvin Harris have explored the relationship between technology, thought, culture, and social systems throughout history, providing valuable insights into this phenomenon.
Using technology to build stronger, healthier societies: Taiwan's civic technology ecosystem inspires building a digital democracy, while China and US show different paths for digital societies, requiring intentional and conscious use of technology for a stronger, healthier, open digital democracy.
Throughout history, advancements in technology have led to shifts in social systems, from tribal societies to empires, and more recently, from industrial societies to digital ones. While new technologies can be used to reinforce old systems, there is an opportunity to consciously use them to build stronger, healthier, open societies. An example of this is the work of Audrey Tang in Taiwan, where she has built a civic technology ecosystem that enables people to participate in the governance of their society. However, it's important to note that not all digital societies are created equal. Some, like China, are consciously using exponential technologies to build closed and authoritarian societies, while others, like the United States, have surrendered control to private technology multinational corporations. To build a new social system that leverages current technology and preserves the principles of democracy, we need to be intentional and conscious in our use of technology. We can look to examples like Taiwan for inspiration and work towards building a digital democracy that is stronger, healthier, and more open than ever before.
Taiwan's participatory approach to addressing civic issues: Taiwan's digital ministry under Audrey Tang's leadership exemplifies modern societies' shift towards participatory and technologically advanced civic solutions. However, handling exponential technologies' risks in larger, more complex societies requires a new system of coordination.
Modern societies are shifting towards more participatory and technologically advanced ways of addressing civic issues. This is best exemplified by Taiwan's approach under Audrey Tang's leadership in the digital ministry. However, it's important to note that this model may not directly apply to larger, more complex societies like the US. The exponential technologies shaping our world are more powerful than previous types, and their misapplication can lead to catastrophic risks, both intentional (conflict theory) and unintentional (mistake theory). It's crucial to develop a new system of coordination that can effectively handle these risks and make informed decisions considering the whole. Conflict theory, where one intentionally causes harm, and mistake theory, where harm is unintended, are both significant challenges we must address. Pretending that mistake theory is the sole cause of harm can provide plausible deniability for conflict theory, making it essential to have robust choice-making processes in our new system.
Individual actions have collective consequences: Recognizing the impact of individual actions on the collective and creating systems that encourage cooperation and responsible use of technology can prevent catastrophic risks.
Each individual's actions, no matter how small they seem, can have significant and even catastrophic consequences when cumulated over time. This is true for both long-term environmental destruction and short-term events like the use of technology for destructive purposes. As we continue to develop new technologies and increase our consumption, it becomes increasingly important to consider the collective impact of our actions and work towards creating systems that mitigate potential harm. For example, the extinction of the buffalo and deforestation in the past were the result of many individuals acting in their own self-interest, leading to irreversible damage. Similarly, the spread of misinformation on social media is a result of individuals seeking attention and influence, leading to a distortion of reality. To prevent such catastrophic risks, we need to develop social systems that encourage cooperation and responsible use of technology, rather than individualism and self-interest. This means considering the long-term consequences of our actions and working towards creating a world that is "antifragile" in the face of decentralized catastrophic capabilities.
The importance of context when interpreting facts: Be cautious when interpreting facts, as they can be misleading without proper context. Approach information with earnestness and rigor to overcome biases and understand the whole picture.
While facts are important, they can be misleading when taken out of context or cherry-picked. The quality of life has improved significantly over the centuries, but it's essential to consider the context and the whole picture rather than focusing on individual facts. Techno optimists and techno pessimists, as well as different political ideologies, can use statistics and facts to support their narratives, leading to statistical warfare. It's crucial to approach information with a higher level of earnestness and rigor to overcome biases and understand that things are getting better and worse simultaneously. We need to recognize the potential for deception and misinformation, even when facts have gone through rigorous fact-checking, and strive for a more nuanced understanding of complex issues.
Balancing Techno Optimism and Pessimism: To create a high-tech world that aligns with our values and preserves the natural world, we need a balanced approach considering potential risks and benefits, effective long-term planning, and governance.
Naive techno optimism and techno pessimism both have their drawbacks when it comes to shaping the future of technology. Naive techno optimism can lead to solutions that harm other areas, while techno pessimism can hinder progress. Instead, we should aim for a balanced approach, considering the potential risks and benefits of technological advancements, and working towards creating a high-tech world that aligns with our values and preserves the natural world. Moreover, effective long-term planning and governance are crucial for harnessing the power of technology in a positive way. Systems that encourage infighting and short-term gains, like the US political system, hinder progress and make it difficult to implement long-term solutions. On the other hand, countries like China are investing in centralized innovation and long-term planning, leading to advancements in areas like high-speed trains. Ultimately, we need to consider the role of technology in shaping our future and work towards creating a world where it enhances our lives, rather than causing harm. This requires a balanced approach, effective governance, and a commitment to using technology to advance our values and preserve the natural world.
Using tech for social good: AI for personalized education, attention-tech for epistemic commons, blockchain for transparency and preventing corruption
The exponential development and deployment of technology by authoritarian nation states pose a risk to preserving social values and creating desirable civilizations. However, there is an opportunity to utilize these technologies, including AI, attention-directing tech, and blockchain, to build new systems of collective intelligence and social technology that promote transparency, education, and the resolution of corruption. For instance, AI can be used to personalize education, attention-directing tech can help create a better epistemic commons, and blockchain can be used to ensure transparency and prevent corruption. It's crucial that we prioritize the development of these technologies for these purposes instead of focusing on market opportunities that may not align with our values. By doing so, we can create a stronger, healthier open society that consciously uses modern technologies to enhance our lives rather than contributing to dystopian attractors.
Using technology to understand and overcome human biases: Technology can help identify innate motivations and create customized educational programs to increase resilience against negative influences, while also ensuring a new economic system where commonwealth resources are accessible to all.
Technology can be used not only to manipulate and exploit human biases and emotions, but also to help individuals understand and overcome them. By identifying innate motivations and creating customized educational programs, we can appeal to the highest angels of people's nature and increase their resilience against negative influences. As technological automation continues to replace jobs, there's a need for a new economic system where people don't need jobs to survive. This could involve creating commonwealth resources, such as transportation, that are accessible to everyone regardless of possession. Ultimately, it's essential for those with power and wealth to use it responsibly and for the greater good, rather than exploiting vulnerabilities and manufacturing demands.
Automation and education shifting towards intrinsic motivation: Blockchain technology can decrease corruption and increase transparency, leading to efficient use of resources and better quality of life.
Technology automation and education have the potential to shift away from external incentives and towards intrinsic motivation, leading to a more equitable society where resources are shared and creativity is the primary source of status. Blockchain technology, specifically, could play a crucial role in decreasing corruption and increasing transparency in government and business transactions. By implementing uncorruptible ledgers for public spending and supply chains, we can make corruption much harder and force transparency on auditability. This could lead to more efficient use of resources, less bloat, and ultimately, a better quality of life for everyone. The future of education and the role of humans in a post-AI world should also be reevaluated, focusing on optimizing intrinsic motivation and creativity.
Revolutionizing Society with Blockchain: Blockchain can transform society by ensuring uncorruptible records, enhancing open data platforms, preventing deep fakes, and facilitating new decision-making processes, leading to a more pro-social world.
Blockchain technology has the potential to revolutionize various aspects of society, from ensuring uncorruptible records and true history in multiple timelines to enhancing open data and science platforms, solving oracle issues, and automatically flagging errors. This technology can also be applied to AI to prevent the creation of deep fakes and preserve the epistemic commons. Furthermore, it can facilitate new forms of decision-making processes in digital spaces, allowing for more inclusive and value-driven propositions and qualified, liquid democracy. Ultimately, blockchain can transform social technology and create a more pro-social world, but the challenge lies in the transition from our current systems to this new reality. The emergence and success of various projects will pave the way towards this inspiring vision of a more efficient, transparent, and people-centric digital society.
Building new institutions for a technological society: Develop democratic institutions to address new risks and challenges brought by technology, empowered by consent of governed, with focus on values of individual liberty and collective integrity.
As technology continues to advance at an exponential rate, it brings about new risks and challenges that require upgraded problem-solving processes and new institutions to address them. These institutions can be centralized or decentralized, but it's essential that they are developed democratically and empowered by the consent of the governed to prevent the potential for dystopian outcomes. Education and enlightenment of the population are crucial to ensure that they can effectively participate in the democratic process and hold power responsibly. The values of individual liberty and collective integrity must be held in dialectic balance, and the relationship between rights and responsibilities is essential for a healthy and just society. The US and Taiwan are examples of societies that have engaged their populations in different ways to build new systems, but it's important to remember that the focus should be on the values, not the specific forms of government.
Investing in education to address societal issues: Countries that prioritize education have seen reductions in accidents and violence. Societies must invest in accessible education, reform existing institutions, and create new ones to tackle pressing issues.
As technology continues to advance, it's essential for societies to consciously employ it to uphold original values and address current issues. Some countries' success in reducing car accidents and gun violence through education illustrates this. While individuals have responsibilities, societies must invest in making education accessible to all. Existing institutions, such as the Brookings Institution or The New York Times, could reform themselves, but new ones may be necessary if they're no longer fit for purpose. The perverse incentive for institutions to keep managing problems instead of solving them must be addressed. A Manhattan Project-level organization could be instrumental in instantiating the next model of civilization, focusing on the future of education, economics, law, and other areas that align with meaningful and antifragile values. Ultimately, it's crucial for individuals to demand and support these changes, using social media and other platforms to incentivize civic virtue and engagement.
Creating a healthier and more intelligent society: Focus on long-term social utility, share resources, prioritize innovation for global coordination, and explore the roles of education and governance in a tech-driven world
We need to focus on creating a healthier and more intelligent society as a whole, rather than just building a more powerful military. This includes sharing best practices and resources among countries, especially small ones, and encouraging tech companies to prioritize long-term social utility over short-term profits. The UN should recognize the need for innovation towards better methods of global coordination, and the Consilience Project aims to inspire and inform this innovation zeitgeist by exploring the interconnectivity and underlying drivers of various global problems, and envisioning the future of open societies in a world with emerging technology. The role of education and governance in this context is crucial, and the Consilience Project is conducting research and writing to help understand these roles and their disruptions by technology. The goal is to innovate in culture and social systems to effectively guide the power of exponential tech.
Understanding complex societal issues and their underlying causes: To effectively address societal issues, we need to increase cultural understanding, facilitate better conversations, and work towards viable solutions in innovation, media, law, and economics.
To address the complex issues we face in society today, we need to increase our cultural understanding of the underlying causes and work towards viable solutions with the fullness of our capacity. This includes addressing issues in innovation, the media (the 4th estate), law, and economics. By understanding the design constraints for the future, we can facilitate better conversations and sense-making, leading to emergent order and good choice-making. The recent documentary "The Social Dilemma" brought attention to the critical issue of a breakdown in sense-making and human behavior patterns, which can worsen other problems. By understanding the core drivers of these issues, we can feel more empowered and inspired to work towards solutions. As Charles Kettering once said, "A problem not fully understood is unsolvable, and a problem that is fully understood is half solved."
Embracing Transparent Blockchain Technology for a Better World: Countries like Estonia and Taiwan are leading the way in implementing transparent blockchain technology, inspiring individuals to join the movement for a more equitable and transparent world.
The implementation of a transparent blockchain technology on a global scale is not only an upgrade but a cultural enlightenment necessary to address the challenges we face as a society. Countries like Estonia and Taiwan are already moving in this direction, and it's essential that we recognize the core functions we need to address to create a better world. Many individuals have been inspired by this vision and have redirected their lives and work to be part of the solution. The realization that there are many others doing the same can be inspiring and help us face these challenges head-on. Daniel's work has touched and inspired many lives, and it's an honor to have this conversation. Let's all work together to create a more transparent and equitable world.
