Podcast Summary
The Perfect Storm for Trump's Election: The Republican Party's shift, media's role, and electorate's disillusionment created the perfect conditions for an unconventional president's rise.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically in recent years, leading to the election of an unconventional president like Donald Trump. According to authors EJ Dion, Thomas Mann, and Norm Ornstein, the Republican Party's evolution and contempt for governance, combined with the media's role in amplifying divisive rhetoric, and the electorate's growing disillusionment, created the perfect storm for Trump's rise. In their book "One Nation After Trump," they explore how these trends came together and what comes next. They argue that effective resistance and a democratic agenda that counters Trump's agenda are crucial for the future of American democracy. Wise, a financial service, offers a solution for managing money in different currencies, making international transactions easier and hassle-free, while Viator provides travel experiences and tours, enhancing the overall travel planning process.
The Unique Circumstances of the 2016 Election: Despite the founders' intentions, the 2016 election saw an unconventional and divisive figure rise to the presidency due to a political climate marked by eroded guardrails and the rise of populism.
The unique circumstances of the 2016 election allowed an unconventional and divisive figure like Donald Trump to rise to the presidency. The founders intended American democracy to have a thoughtful and deliberative process for selecting leaders, but the current political climate, including the erosion of traditional guardrails and the rise of populism, contributed to Trump's election. The authors of "Democracy for Realists" argue that these conditions made it difficult to imagine Trump emerging in a different time or under different circumstances. The book also discusses the need to address the underlying issues that Trump exploited and to strengthen the democratic institutions that have weakened over time.
The Republican establishment's weak response to Trump during primaries: Trump's radical themes went unchecked due to the weakened informal safety guards within the GOP, exacerbated by long-term radicalization and contingent events.
The Republican establishment's failure to challenge Donald Trump during the primaries, coupled with the assumption that he wouldn't win, created a perfect storm for his presidency. Trump's radical themes, including his immigration policies and racist attacks, went unchecked due to the weakened informal safety guards within the Republican Party. These issues were exacerbated by the long-term radicalization of the party and the economic and cultural adjustments that left a market for explicit racial and xenophobic appeals. However, it's important to note that both structural factors and contingent events played a role in Trump's rise to power. For instance, Trump lost the Iowa caucuses and almost the New Hampshire primary, and if things had gone differently in these races, we might not be dealing with a Trump presidency today. Additionally, Chris Christie's devastating attack on Marco Rubio in a debate significantly weakened Rubio's campaign and cleared the path for Trump.
Trump's win and Wise's success built on tapping into core aspects: Trump effectively tapped into white identity politics, while Wise offers an authentic solution for currency transfers with no hidden fees
Donald Trump's win in the 2016 presidential election was not a landslide victory, but rather a result of him effectively tapping into the white identity politics that had become a core aspect of the Republican Party base. Trump, who is authentically a member of this base, recognized this and did not shy away from expressing these views publicly, which resonated with many voters. This helped him consolidate the Republican vote despite initial reservations from some within the party. In the world of business, Wise offers a similar authentic solution for managing money in different currencies with ease, transparency, and no hidden fees. Wise processed over $100 billion in transfers in 2023, with half of these reaching their destination faster than the length of this ad. Whether you're a business owner or an individual, Wise can help you navigate the complexities of international currency transactions.
2016 Election: Beyond Race: Trump's victory was influenced by negative partisanship, dislike for Clintons, and elites supporting him despite controversial behavior. The primary process had become an entry point for demagogues, and Trump won over core Republican voters and college-educated white men with promises of tax cuts and deregulation.
The 2016 presidential election was influenced by complex factors beyond just race, including negative partisanship, dislike for the Clintons, and elites supporting Trump despite his controversial behavior. Trump's victory was not a surprise to some, as the Republican Party had been shifting towards more extreme positions for years. The primary process, which was once a gateway that demagogues couldn't get through, had become an entry point for such figures. Negative partisanship, or the intense dislike for the opposing party, played a significant role in Trump's support from both the base and elites. Despite his divisive rhetoric and controversial policies, Trump won over a solid core of Republican voters and college-educated white men with his promises of tax cuts and deregulation. The Clintons' unpopularity among the Republican base also contributed to Trump's victory. Overall, the 2016 election highlighted the weaknesses in American democracy and the potential for demagogues to exploit the primary process.
Republican Party's Shift in Values and Priorities: The Republican Party's response to Trump's presidency has shown a significant shift towards partisanship, ideology, and disregard for bipartisan governance and the public's interests.
The Republican Party's response to Donald Trump's presidency has revealed a significant shift in the party's values and priorities. The party, which once prided itself on moral values and bipartisan governance, has become increasingly partisan and ideological, denying the legitimacy of the opposing side and prioritizing elites and interest groups over the broader public. This trend has been decades in the making, and the 2011 poll data showing a dramatic shift in white evangelicals' beliefs about the ethical behavior of elected officials is just one example of this. The disturbing trend of politicians rationalizing their positions based on power rather than principles has made it difficult to identify solid ground in American politics. The lack of guilt and responsibility in the political process, as seen in the healthcare debates, is a concerning development that goes against the founders' intentions for checks and balances.
Political climate in US worsened during civil rights era, led by Gingrich, Hastert, and McConnell: Civil rights era marked start of divisive politics, with McConnell's disregard for legislative process worsening the situation, resulting in lack of consensus and fact-finding in US politics
The roots of the current political climate in the United States go back to the civil rights era and have been steadily worsening, with attacks on the media as neutral arbiters of fact and a breakdown in bipartisan cooperation. Three politicians, Newt Gingrich, Denny Hastert, and Mitch McConnell, have been identified as key figures in this process. McConnell, in particular, has been criticized for his use of the filibuster and disregard for the legislative process, resulting in a destructive political environment where consensus and fact-finding have been abandoned. Despite some signs of pushback, the situation remains dire, with few voices in the media or in Congress advocating for a return to normalcy. McConnell's 2014 "Restoring the Senate" speech, which emphasized the importance of bipartisan cooperation, now seems like a distant memory.
Republican Politics: Beyond the Headlines: Republican leaders in Congress disregard truth and norms, with McConnell leading the charge, creating a deeply troubling political system despite an appearance of normalcy
The current state of American politics, particularly within the Republican Party in Congress, is more dysfunctional and abnormal than many realize. While the antics of figures like Donald Trump may grab headlines, it is the actions of Republican leaders in Congress that are pushing the boundaries of normal political processes and truth-telling. Mitch McConnell, for instance, has been noted for his lack of truth content in his statements and his adjustment to the party's shifting ideology. This trend towards disregard for truth and norms has been developing for some time and cannot be viewed in isolation from Trump's presidency. The consequence of this trend is a political system that appears more normal on the surface but is, in fact, deeply troubling.
Political dysfunction and control despite lack of popular vote: Republicans control US government despite fewer votes, foreign interference goes unchecked, and political polarization hinders progress
The current political climate in the United States is marked by dysfunction, partisanship, and a lack of respect for government institutions. This has led to a situation where the Republican Party, which has historically been critical of government, now controls the White House, Senate, House, most state legislatures, and the Supreme Court, despite not having a majority of the popular vote. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party, which is more popular nationally, operates from a handicap in terms of representation in Congress. The discussion also highlighted the lack of action against foreign interference in elections and the apparent intimidation of politicians by media and funders. The trend of attacking government and questioning its legitimacy has made it difficult for politicians to come together and find solutions to pressing issues. This situation contributes to the sense of political dysfunction and the lack of progress on important issues.
Structural issues threatening US democracy: Voter ID laws, gerrymandering, and population concentration are making US elections less representative and democratic, disproportionately impacting the Democratic Party, and leading to a perception of illegitimacy if not addressed.
The current political system in the United States, as it stands, is becoming less representative and democratic due to various structural issues, including voter ID laws, gerrymandering, and the increasing concentration of population in metropolitan areas. These factors disproportionately impact the Democratic Party, making it harder for them to win elections despite having a larger popular vote. This trend, if not addressed, could lead to a perception of illegitimacy in elections and undermine the fundamental norm that a vote should have meaning. The system's non-majoritarian nature, as evidenced by the discrepancies between the popular vote and the electoral college, is a significant challenge to political stability. To mitigate these issues, reforms such as addressing gerrymandering, campaign finance, and voter suppression are necessary. However, the party that benefits from these non-majoritarian aspects of the system may resist change, making the situation even more complex.
The current political climate and potential solutions: Despite the challenges, efforts towards a more equitable political system, like campaign finance reform and a shift towards a popular vote system, offer hope for progress.
The current state of American politics, with a shrinking Republican party winning elections through the electoral college system, could lead to a combustible situation in the Democratic Party. Critics of the political system are often seen as sore losers or power grabbers, making it difficult to address the serious issues facing American democracy. However, the authors argue that Trump's presidency has jolted the system and mobilized people to take action. There are potential solutions, such as moving towards a popular vote system, addressing gerrymandering, and campaign finance reform. While these changes will be an uphill battle, there is still hope for progress and a third path towards a more equitable political system.
A crucial moment for political engagement in American history: The current political climate under Trump's presidency presents a crisis, making it important to engage politically. However, sustaining mobilization beyond a specific issue or election cycle is a challenge.
While there have been instances of successful popular mobilizations in American history leading to structural changes, they are unusual and tend to arise in response to a crisis. The current political climate under Donald Trump's presidency presents such a crisis, making it a crucial moment for political engagement. However, sustaining mobilization beyond a specific issue or election cycle is a challenge. The speaker expresses skepticism about the longevity of current movements, such as the Tea Party and the Resistance, in bringing about long-term structural changes. The speaker advocates for continued engagement and mobilization to address the current crisis, but acknowledges the difficulty in maintaining this momentum beyond the immediate political context. The speaker also highlights the importance of recognizing the historical precedents of successful mobilizations and the role they have played in shaping American politics.
Maintaining Political Mobilizations: A Challenge: To make a difference in the political landscape, it's crucial to understand the importance of political structures, the role of elites, organizations, and events in maintaining political mobilizations after achieving objectives, preventing demobilization, and addressing structural reforms.
Maintaining political mobilizations after achieving their objectives is a significant challenge. The energy and enthusiasm that fueled the opposition to offensive politicians often dissipates once they are out of power. Disappointment and disempowerment can lead to demobilization. Both parties need a unifying coalition of elites and mass mobilizations to address structural reforms and prevent the takeover of their parties by extremist elements. The Democratic Party, for instance, should be cautious about reforms that might weaken its ability to control its nominating process and ensure a mainstream candidate. At the same time, it's crucial to learn from successful mobilizations, like Bernie Sanders', and harness new energy and young voters. Ultimately, understanding the importance of political structures and the role of elites, organizations, and events is crucial to making a difference in the political landscape.
Understanding Populism's Role in Politics: The authors stress the importance of recognizing the complexities of populism and distinguishing between democratic and authoritarian strains. They also advocate for fact-based journalism and a return to truth as the foundation of reporting.
The political landscape has undergone significant changes, particularly within the Republican party, where race plays a pivotal role. The authors argue that it's crucial not to let this opportunity go to waste and instead prepare for future changes in politics. They also discuss their book-writing process, highlighting their agreement on the complexity of populism and the importance of distinguishing between democratic and authoritarian strains. Furthermore, they emphasize the need for fact-based journalism, whether it's opinion or news, and criticize the current media landscape for its lack of standards and the ease with which false information spreads. Ultimately, they call for a return to truth as the fundamental standard of journalism.
The Challenge of Maintaining Factual Accuracy in Media: There's a need for factual journalism, but right-wing media deliberately spread false information. Encouraging developments include explanatory journalism, but its impact remains to be seen.
There's a pressing need for factually based opinion in media, especially during times of political debate. The speaker emphasizes the importance of truth and fact in journalism, regardless of whether it's opinion or non-opinion. However, there's a significant asymmetry between the mainstream media and the tribal media on the right. While there's a desire to correct mistakes and report all sides in the mainstream media, right-wing media deliberately spread false information as propaganda. This poses a significant challenge to maintaining factual accuracy in media. The speaker also shares an example of Tucker Carlson, who once advocated for high-quality reporting on the right but ended up becoming a Trump-affiliated Fox News host known for bringing on people to embarrass and entertaining his audience. The speaker laments Carlson's failure to live up to his earlier ideals and views it as a symptom of a larger problem in the conservative media landscape. Despite these challenges, there have been encouraging developments, such as the rise of explanatory journalism, which aims to provide context and explanation to complex issues. However, it remains to be seen whether this approach has scaled up and influenced larger news organizations.
Impact of Explanatory Journalism on Media Landscape: Explanatory journalism's influence led to more policy reporting, response from mainstream media, criticisms regarding campaign reporting and class bias, importance of high-quality journalistic institutions, and the need for more conservative media institutions.
The influence of explanatory journalism, as exemplified by Vox, has significantly impacted the media landscape, leading to an increase in policy reporting and a response from mainstream media outlets like The New York Times and The Washington Post. The speaker believes that the media is in a strong position in terms of governance reporting, but acknowledges criticisms regarding campaign reporting and a perceived class bias. He also emphasizes the importance of having high-quality journalistic institutions that do not share the biases of the mainstream media, but notes that the conservative media has consciously distanced itself from these values. The speaker is encouraged by the success of business models that support in-depth journalism and hopes for the rise of more conservative media institutions that adhere to journalistic standards.
The far right media can distort information and incite riots: Conservatives primarily consuming conservative media can be manipulated, and mainstream media's competitive nature can spread distortions. Future elections may require cautious reporting to prevent manipulation.
The far right media, including books and movies, can be filled with distortions and propaganda, and their success can encourage the worst kind of behavior and potentially even incitement to riot. This is problematic because a significant number of conservatives only consume conservative media, and some of the tropes developed by the far right media have found their way into mainstream media. The 2016 election showed that the Russians exploited this situation by manipulating the election process through leaked emails and gossip. The media's competitive nature made it difficult for outlets not to cover the leaked information, even if it was not important or newsworthy. A potential solution is for a new generation of conservatives to challenge this trend and for mainstream media to plan ahead for future elections and be more cautious in their reporting.
Media's role in reporting on leaks and disinformation: Journalists need to work with tech companies and governments to establish new standards and hold sources accountable for providing accurate information to combat disinformation campaigns.
The issue of leaks and disinformation in the media, particularly during political campaigns, is a complex problem that requires careful consideration. While the Russian disinformation campaign during the 2016 US election was a significant concern, it's important to acknowledge that organized leaks from within the national security apparatus also pose a threat. The media's role in reporting on these leaks is crucial, but it's essential to ensure that the information is legitimate and not deliberately distorted or fake. The reliance on anonymous sources can be problematic, as there are currently no clear consequences for providing false or misleading information. To combat disinformation campaigns, journalists need to work together with tech companies and governments to establish new standards and hold sources accountable for providing accurate information. The media also needs to be more transparent about where their information comes from and be more mindful of how they report on sensitive information to avoid contributing to the abnormalization of political figures.
Media's focus on flaws during 2016 campaign distorted candidates' images: Media must strive for fairness and balance in reporting, avoiding negative distortion of candidates' images, and promoting understanding of historical context and political responsibility.
During the 2016 presidential campaign, the media's focus on Hillary Clinton's flaws and Donald Trump's scandals created a distorted picture of the candidates, contributing to the negative partisanship that drove the election. E.J. Dionne, Tom Mann, and Norm Ornstein discussed this imbalance in their book "One Nation After Trump," and emphasized the importance of fairness and balance in journalism. They noted that both political parties have used negative tactics to demonize opponents, but the media must be vigilant in avoiding this distortion. Each of the guests recommended influential books: E.J. suggested "Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal" by William Leuchtenberg, Tom recommended "Strength to Love" by Martin Luther King Jr., and Norm suggested "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. The discussion also touched on the importance of understanding the historical context of the Second Amendment and the role of responsibility in politics.
When Santa Fe Institute Professor Mirta Galesic was a teenager, her country fell apart.