In this bonus episode adapted from National Journal’s webinar series “Cook Catch Up,” National Journal Editor in Chief Jeff Dufour and Cook Political Report with Amy Walter founder Charlie Cook discusses the Iowa caucuses, the upcoming New Hampshire primary, and the likelihood of a government shutdown. Episodes of National Journal Radio are also available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Podcast Summary
Trump projected to win Iowa caucuses, affecting DeSantis's strategy: Trump's strong showing in Iowa, particularly among evangelical voters, could make it challenging for DeSantis to replicate Obama's 2008 success and win in South Carolina due to Trump's improved ground game and larger voter base.
Former President Donald Trump is projected to win the Iowa caucuses for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, despite very few actual results being in. This outcome is significant for Trump, but especially for Ron DeSantis, who had built his campaign strategy around winning Iowa and pivoting to South Carolina with its large percentage of evangelical voters. DeSantis's strategy was to replicate Barack Obama's 2008 success in Iowa and then use that momentum to win in South Carolina. However, Trump's improved ground game and strong showing among evangelical voters in Iowa could make it difficult for DeSantis to recover. Additionally, Nikki Haley, who is also running for the nomination, may struggle in South Carolina due to the large percentage of evangelical voters and her weaker ground game compared to Trump and DeSantis.
Iowa Caucus Challenges Nikki Haley, DeSantis Builds Strong Ground Game: Nikki Haley faces challenges in Iowa due to late campaign efforts, while Ron DeSantis has a strong ground game. Haley holds an advantage in other states, but Trump's popularity with evangelical voters poses a significant obstacle.
The Iowa caucus is proving to be a significant challenge for Nikki Haley, as she faces competition from Ron DeSantis, who has built a strong ground game in the state. DeSantis' campaign has been heavily focused on winning in Iowa, while Haley's efforts were late in coming. Despite the possibility of coming in third place in Iowa, Haley still holds an advantage over DeSantis in other states like New Hampshire, where she is competitive with Trump. Additionally, the deeply religious evangelical voters in Iowa, who view Trump as God's chosen candidate, present an insurmountable roadblock for other candidates. The Republican Party's evangelical vote is a capacious category, with both regular churchgoers and those who have a hybrid spiritual and political identity. Trump has seen significant growth among this group. In Council Bluffs, a Haley representative spoke about wanting to be a proud Republican and a leader for the new, young, conservative generation. The next person on the list is for Trump.
Donald Trump leads in Iowa Caucus with over 70% votes in some counties: Trump leads in Iowa Caucus, Nikki Haley performs well in Democratic stronghold, DeSantis underperforms in evangelical areas, final outcome uncertain
Donald Trump is currently leading in the Iowa Republican Caucus with over 70% of the votes in some counties, significantly surpassing his performance in 2016. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley is making a strong showing in Johnson County, a Democratic stronghold with a high concentration of college degrees, which could be crucial for her campaign. The race for second place is heating up between DeSantis and Haley, but DeSantis is currently underperforming in counties where he had hoped to do well, such as those with a strong evangelical voter base. Trump is aiming to clear the all-time record of 41% vote share in Iowa, and the biggest margin before tonight was 12 points. The caucus results are still coming in, and the final outcome remains to be seen.
Iowa Caucus 2024: A Unique Challenge for Trump: Despite being projected to win, Trump faces a lower turnout and smaller margin than in 2016 due to perception games, political factors, and potential indictments, impacting other candidates like Haley and DeSantis.
The 2024 Iowa caucus is unlike any other before it for Donald Trump. He's projected to win, but with a significantly lower turnout than in 2016 and the lowest margin for a sitting president. The perception games and political factors at play this time around are vastly different, with Trump starting stronger but weaker than his previous run. Additionally, the looming indictments and potential conviction before the election add complexity to the situation. The lower-than-expected turnout could impact the outcome for other candidates like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Overall, the Iowa caucus of 2024 presents a unique challenge for Trump and the Republican Party.
Florida Governor DeSantis' Focus on Iowa Caucus: DeSantis prioritized Iowa caucus, but low polling and lower turnout may impact his chances
Former Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has poured all of his efforts into winning the Iowa Republican caucus, even neglecting his home state during hurricanes and controversially passing draconian immigration laws. Despite his ground game and strategy being focused on Iowa, his polling numbers are not impressive, and he may finish in the 15s or 20s. This comes after he made an ad appealing to evangelicals by claiming God created him as a fighter. The turnout for the Iowa caucus is projected to be lower than in 2016, with around 130,000 expected, compared to the record-breaking 186,000 in 2016. This lower turnout could be due to the dynamic nature of the race and the weather, but historical data shows that the turnout in 2016 was an anomaly, with the closest comparison being the 2000 caucus, where George W. Bush was expected to win with a significant margin.
2024 Iowa Caucuses echo 2000 dynamics with Trump leading, Haley and DeSantis vying for second: In the 2024 Iowa Caucuses, Trump leads, but Haley and DeSantis compete for second place. Haley performs well in college-educated, high-income areas, while DeSantis excels in religious, evangelical counties. Most caucus-goers believe Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election.
The dynamics of the 2000 Republican Iowa caucuses, where George W. Bush won despite having the lowest vote share at that point, bear some similarities to the ongoing 2024 race. Trump is currently projected to win the Iowa caucuses, but Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are vying for second place. Haley is performing well in college-educated, high-income areas, while DeSantis is doing well in heavily religious, evangelical counties like Sioux County, which was Trump's worst performing county in 2016. It's important to note that the overall vote share is still low, and the results are still coming in. The entrance polls show that among Republican caucus-goers, a majority (66%) believe that Biden did not legitimately win the 2020 election. The breakdown of their votes is Nikki Haley (53%), Ron DeSantis (26%), and Donald Trump (21%).
Iowa Republicans divided over Biden's election legitimacy: Two-thirds of Iowa Republicans believe Biden didn't win legitimately, influencing their opinion on Trump's fitness to be president if convicted. Despite this, Trump is still expected to win the Iowa caucuses and potentially the nomination.
Among Iowa Republican caucus goers, a stark divide exists regarding the legitimacy of President Joe Biden's win in the 2020 election. Two-thirds of them believe that Biden did not win it legitimately, with Trump receiving more than 50 points more support than his closest competitors. This belief, fueled by Trump's claims that the election was stolen from him, also influences their opinion on Trump's fitness to be president if he is convicted. While a third of caucus goers believe Trump is not fit to serve if convicted, he is still expected to win the Iowa caucuses and potentially the nomination. This shows the deep-rooted belief in Trump's false claims about the election, which could impact the Republican Party's future direction.
Republican primary electorate's anti-immigrant views pose a challenge for non-establishment candidates: Despite criminal charges, Trump's strong anti-immigrant stance resonates with the Republican base, making it difficult for alternative candidates to gain their support.
The Republican primary electorate's beliefs and attitudes towards certain issues, particularly immigration, make it a significant challenge for any candidate outside the current party establishment to gain their support. The entrance polls from the Iowa caucus indicate that a large percentage of Republican voters hold strong anti-immigrant views, and these voters may not be convertible to opposing a candidate like Donald Trump, despite his criminal charges. This dynamic was evident in Vivek Ramaswami's wife encountering resistance based on her religion and origin. The Republican base is deeply invested in their faith and support for Trump, making it a formidable obstacle for any alternative candidate. The Iowa caucus results, with Trump's strong showing, underscore this reality.
Divided American Electorate and the Threat to Democracy: Significant portion of American electorate supports extremist views, particularly in the Republican Party, posing a threat to democracy through authoritarianism and Christian nationalism, with no signs of reassessment or attempt to win back public support.
The American electorate is divided, with a significant portion supporting extremist views, particularly within the Republican Party. This trend towards authoritarianism and Christian nationalism, as evidenced by the continued support for figures like Donald Trump, poses a significant threat to American democracy. Despite losing elections and facing rejection of policies, there's no sign of reassessment or attempt to win back the public. Instead, this group believes they own the country and seek power, not popularity. It's essential to confront and address this shift towards extremism and the dangerous implications it holds for American democracy.
Trump's unwavering support from followers: Despite legal challenges and allegations, Trump's supporters remain committed to him, viewing any opposition as illegitimate.
The support for Donald Trump among his followers is deeply rooted and unwavering, even in the face of legal challenges and allegations. This was evident in the Iowa caucus results, where a significant portion of respondents indicated that they would still consider Trump fit to be president despite potential convictions. The authoritarian nature of some religious and political movements was also discussed, with the idea that faith in a leader can lead some to prioritize that leader's rule above democratic processes. Trump's upcoming court appearance in New York is just one example of the ongoing legal entanglements that have become a part of his campaign. Despite these challenges, Trump's supporters continue to view any efforts to stop him as illegitimate, and this dynamic is expected to continue to play out in the coming days.
Media environment for committed Trump supporters: Trump supporters' media consumption differs greatly from the broader public, impacting how they perceive election interference cases and Trump's potential convictions.
The media environment for committed Trump supporters is vastly different than that of the broader public. This was discussed in relation to the ongoing trials and the potential impact of various cases on Trump's presidential bid. Many Trump supporters are less familiar with the specifics of these cases and operate in a media ecosystem that presents them with different facts and coverage. As a result, determining which information could be disqualifying for these voters and how it would reach them is a complex issue. The divide in the media landscape and partisan landscape raises questions about how Trump's potential conviction on federal election interference or other crimes would impact his fitness to be president in the minds of these voters. Despite the polarized landscape, the division between those who believe Biden is not the legitimate president and those who think Trump cannot serve if convicted provides insight into the current state of the Republican party.
Public supports Trump investigations and accountability: Majority of Americans back Trump investigations, believe he should be held accountable, and reject the idea of removing presidents over false charges. Trump's legal issues haven't boosted his popularity, and election deniers have lost elections.
Despite the focus on Republican reactions to investigations and indictments against former President Trump, a majority of the American public supports these actions and believes Trump should be held accountable for his alleged crimes. The idea that such legal proceedings would hurt Republicans electorally is a debated open question. Republicans have historically used investigations and probes as political tools, but the country has rejected the idea of removing presidents over trumped-up charges. The Hunter Biden situation is an ancillary issue. Trump's indictments and potential disqualification from ballots under the 14th amendment have not boosted his popularity, and the election deniers have consistently lost elections in 2022. The American public's faith in Trump as a viable candidate is waning, and the good white hats, or those committed to defending democracy, have consistently turned out to vote. An exit poll question in New Hampshire regarding Hunter Biden's potential conviction and its impact on Biden's presidency would provide further insight into the public's stance on this issue.
Iowa Caucuses: Trump Takes Significant Lead, Haley and DeSantis Battle for Second: Trump leads in Iowa caucuses, Haley currently holds second place, and DeSantis' campaign may hinge on Iowa results.
The Iowa caucuses are showing Donald Trump with a significant lead, making him the projected winner. The race for second place is between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, with Haley currently holding an advantage due to her stronger polling in other states. This night could be do or die for DeSantis, who has focused most of his campaign efforts in Iowa. The vote count is still coming in, and we'll be watching closely for updates on the second place finisher and the final margin of victory for Trump. Iowa's caucuses have demonstrated the importance of excellent handwriting and the meticulous process of reporting results, which is ongoing.
Performances of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in Iowa caucuses crucial for their campaigns: Haley's strong showing in college-educated, suburban and urban areas could determine her second place finish, while DeSantis' underperformance in these areas could impact his campaign moving forward.
The performances of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses could be existential for their campaigns. Haley, who is performing well in college-educated, suburban and urban areas, is expected to do well in counties with high concentrations of these demographics, such as Black Hawk and Polk. DeSantis, who put most of his efforts into Iowa, is underperforming in these areas, which could be a concern for his campaign moving forward. The results from these counties, particularly the margin between Haley and DeSantis in Polk County, could be telling in determining the second place finisher behind Trump.
DeSantis' strong performance in Iowa's religious counties could boost his campaign: Ron DeSantis' success in Iowa's deeply religious areas could give him momentum for New Hampshire and attract more support.
Ron DeSantis' performance in the Iowa caucus, particularly in the Northwest part of the state, could significantly boost his campaign. DeSantis is currently ahead of or keeping it close with Nikki Haley in deeply religious, evangelical counties like Sioux County, which was Trump's worst performing area in 2016. If DeSantis can win or perform well in these counties, it could give him momentum heading into New Hampshire, where he currently lags behind in the polls. Additionally, DeSantis' ability to claim victory or strong showings in the caucus, despite low expectations, could help him gain support and attention. The outcome of the caucus could also impact how candidates, such as DeSantis and Haley, frame their messages moving forward.
Republican Party Shifts: Challenges for Candidates in New Primary Landscape: Traditional Republican voters have shifted towards comprehensive immigration reform and a more inclusive political stance, posing challenges for candidates like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in winning their support while also focusing on key states like New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The Republican Party landscape has shifted significantly due to Donald Trump's dominance. Many traditional Republican voters, particularly those who were once part of the business set, have been alienated and now lean towards comprehensive immigration reform and a more inclusive political stance. This presents challenges for candidates like Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who need to win over these voters while also focusing on key states like New Hampshire and South Carolina. The open primary system in New Hampshire allows for independence votes, which can be crucial for candidates like Haley. However, the resources required to compete in both New Hampshire and South Carolina pose a significant challenge. Ultimately, each campaign must make strategic decisions about where to allocate resources based on their performance in the primaries.
The 2024 Republican primary: A battle between Trump supporters and anti-Trump wing: The 2024 Republican primary is expected to be intense, with DeSantis and Haley challenging Trump. Iowa caucus results will determine the length and intensity. Haley faces challenges due to immigration and ethnicity. Trump's win in traditionally Republican areas could make it harder for alternatives to gain momentum.
The 2024 Republican primary race is shaping up to be a significant battle between Trump supporters and those looking for an alternative. The anti-Trump wing, which makes up over 50% of the party when all other votes are pooled, is eager to find a viable candidate to challenge Trump. The outcome of the Iowa caucus will play a crucial role in determining the length and intensity of the primary. If DeSantis performs poorly, the primary may be short-lived. However, if he does well or Haley performs strongly in New Hampshire, the primary could drag on longer, especially for Haley who faces challenges in winning over more conservative states. Additionally, the issue of immigration and Haley's ethnicity could pose significant obstacles for her in securing the nomination. The latest vote returns from Iowa show Trump leading in high-income, college-educated suburban areas, which were previously strongholds for Rubio. This win in Dallas County, a traditionally Republican area, is significant as it shows Trump's ability to perform well in hostile territory, potentially making it more challenging for alternative candidates to gain momentum.
Race for second place in Florida GOP primary between Haley and DeSantis is tight: The close race for second place between Haley and DeSantis in the Florida GOP primary could impact future campaigns or negotiations within the party.
The race for second place between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis in the Florida Republican primary is extremely close, with only a small margin separating them. Haley is currently leading in some counties, but DeSantis is making gains in others, particularly in rural areas. The importance of these counties lies in their potential to provide a significant "pad" for the second-place candidate, as these were historically strongholds for candidates like Huckabee, Santorum, and Cruz. The ultimate impact of this close race for second place may not significantly affect the overall outcome, as Donald Trump maintains a large lead. However, the winner of this closely contested race could potentially gain an edge in future campaigns or negotiations within the party.
Iowa Republican Caucus: Trump leads by over 30 points, but race for second place is tight: Trump's improvements in rural areas and counties give him a commanding lead in the Iowa Republican Caucus, while the race for second place remains close between various candidates.
The Iowa Republican Caucus is shaping up to be a close fight for second place between various candidates, with Donald Trump showing significant improvements from his 2016 and 2023 performance. Trump's gains are particularly noticeable in rural areas and counties where he was previously weak, such as Johnson County. These improvements come after polling in early 2023 suggested a single-digit lead for Trump nationally against candidates like DeSantis. The current margin between Trump and his closest competitors is substantial, with Trump leading by over 30 points, surpassing the previous record for the biggest margin in an Iowa Republican Caucus. The race for second place remains tight, and more votes need to be counted to determine the final outcome.