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    The Biggest Surprise of 2015

    enDecember 18, 2015

    Podcast Summary

    • Record-breaking M&A deals in 20152015 saw a surge in M&A activity, driven by cheap debt and investor pressure, resulting in $4.3 trillion worth of deals in various industries, including Pfizer-Allergan in pharmaceuticals, Dell-EMC in tech, and Amazon's market cap surpassing Walmart's

      The year 2015 was marked by record-breaking mergers and acquisitions, with a total value of around $4.3 trillion, surpassing the previous record set in 2007. This trend was driven by cheap debt and investor pressure in a relatively weak economy, leading companies to consolidate and grow through acquisition. Some of the largest deals included Pfizer's acquisition of Allergan in pharmaceuticals, and Dell's takeover of EMC in technology. Another significant business story was Amazon surpassing Walmart in market cap, marking a turning point in the age of e-commerce. Despite not making a profit, Amazon's strategic investments and leadership under Jeff Bezos have paid off, making it a major player in the industry. Additionally, the collapse of energy and commodity prices also made headlines in 2015.

    • Surprising Events in the Energy and Tech SectorsDespite economic benefits, the energy sector's struggles were unexpected. Tech surprises included Activision's acquisition of King Digital and Keurig's decision to go private, highlighting the importance of staying informed.

      The energy sector's struggles this year, despite the economic benefits of low gas prices and commodities, have been a significant surprise due to the sector's major role in US economic growth over the past few years. Another surprising event was Activision's acquisition of King Digital Entertainment for $5.9 billion, a deal that raised eyebrows due to the declining state of Candy Crush's business. Additionally, Keurig Green Mountain's sudden decision to go private was unexpected, especially considering the scrutiny the company has faced regarding the environmental impact of its single-use coffee pods. These surprises serve as reminders of the unpredictability of the business world and the importance of staying informed about industry trends and company performance.

    • Rise and fall of daily fantasy sports and underreported E. coli issues at Costco and StarbucksDespite major headlines, it's crucial to examine underreported stories like daily fantasy sports regulatory crackdown and E. coli issues at Costco and Starbucks, which can shape industries and public health respectively. Comcast's challenge to Disney in the movie business is also an emerging trend.

      While major stories often dominate the media landscape, there are other significant stories that may go under the radar. Two such stories discussed were the rise and fall of daily fantasy sports and the underreported E. coli issues at Costco and Starbucks. The meteoric rise of daily fantasy sports, with its massive advertising budgets and high-profile backers, was a big trend this year, but the sudden regulatory crackdown could shape the future of online gambling. Meanwhile, Costco and Starbucks dealt with E. coli issues similar to Chipotle's, but received far less attention. These stories highlight the importance of looking beyond the headlines and considering the broader context. Additionally, Comcast's challenge to Disney in the movie business is an emerging trend to watch.

    • Comcast and SiriusXM Shake Up the Entertainment IndustryComcast aims to compete with Disney through movie production, SiriusXM secures Howard Stern deal, industry faces saturation, Reed Hastings of Netflix disagrees, Mark Zuckerberg drives Facebook's growth

      The entertainment industry saw significant changes in 2015, with companies like Comcast and SiriusXM making major moves. Comcast is aiming to compete with Disney by producing blockbuster movies that lend themselves to consumer products and theme parks. SiriusXM secured a deal with Howard Stern, reportedly worth $90 million a year, and plans to launch a new app with audio and video streaming. The industry also faced the issue of too much TV, with over 400 scripted shows, leading some executives to question the saturation point. Despite this, Reed Hastings of Netflix argued there isn't enough content. Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook stood out as a top CEO, driving the company's growth with a 37% stock increase and a focus on charitable causes.

    • Exceptional years for Disney and Amazon, challenges for Volkswagen and Mattel, and a tough year for hedge fundsDisney and Amazon had exceptional years, with Disney's acquisitions transforming entertainment and Amazon continuing to dominate e-commerce. Volkswagen and Mattel faced challenges leading to CEO departures, while hedge funds underperformed but Bill Ackman showed resilience.

      Both Bob Iger of Disney and Jeff Bezos of Amazon had exceptional years for their respective companies, with Disney outperforming the market and Disney's acquisitions of Pixar, Lucasfilm, and Marvel changing the entertainment industry, while Amazon continued to dominate the e-commerce industry and showed no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the CEOs of Volkswagen and Mattel faced significant challenges, leading to their departures and potential turnarounds for their companies. Additionally, the hedge fund industry as a whole underperformed the S&P 500, but Bill Ackman at Pershing Square showed tenacity and vision despite a difficult year for his fund.

    • Underreported stories in business and investing in 2015The solar power surge and most M&A deals failing to deliver synergies were underreported stories. Volkswagen scandal and the Fed's rate hike were notable events. Long-term investing is crucial and ignoring media hype is important.

      Learning from the discussion on Motley Fool Money's year in review is that while some notable events in business and investing stood out in 2015, such as the Fed's rate hike, merger and acquisition activity, Volkswagen scandal, and Valeant Pharmaceuticals' ongoing saga, there were also significant stories that flew under the radar. Simon Erickson highlighted the surge in solar power as an underreported story of the year. Despite the low-interest rate environment leading to a surge in mergers and acquisitions, the panelists noted that most big deals fail to deliver the expected synergies. The Volkswagen scandal, which involved the company cheating emissions tests for years, was a major story that raised questions about the company's core competency and brand equity. The Fed's rate hike, the first in nine years, was a notable event that showed the economy was back on track. Overall, the panelists emphasized the importance of long-term investing and cautioned against being swayed by public opinion or media hype.

    • Solar energy's rapid growth and the importance of adapting to changing marketsSolar energy's growth is rapid and significant, accounting for 30% of new capacity last year. Companies that fail to adapt to changing markets can miss out on huge opportunities, as seen with Nintendo and traditional car manufacturers. Innovative strategies, like those of Valeant, can lead to growth but also raise concerns about long-term sustainability.

      While solar energy still makes up a small percentage of the overall electricity supply, its growth is rapid and significant. Solar electricity accounted for 30% of new capacity added last year, despite being a small player in the grand scheme of things. Meanwhile, companies that fail to adapt to changing markets can miss out on huge opportunities. Nintendo, for example, ignored the mobile gaming market for years, even as it grew into a $30 billion industry. The company's eventual entry into the market led to a stock price doubling. Similarly, traditional car manufacturers have struggled to adapt to the rise of ride-sharing services like Uber. It's a challenging business decision to disrupt yourself, but failure to do so can result in being left behind. In the case of Valeant, a large pharmaceutical company, its growth has come from both innovative mergers and acquisitions and questionable accounting practices. The company's strategies, while effective in the short term, have raised concerns and uncertainty about its long-term sustainability.

    • Valyant Stock: A Debated Investment, Elon Musk and Travis Kalanick: Recognized CEOsElon Musk and Travis Kalanick, leaders of Tesla, SolarCity, SpaceX, and Uber respectively, are recognized for their accomplishments. The sharing economy, led by Uber, is leading to fewer wasted assets and more efficient use of resources, benefiting individuals and the economy.

      The Valyant stock has been a subject of intense debate among successful investors, with some viewing it as a fraudulent company and others seeing it as a promising investment. Meanwhile, Elon Musk has been hailed as the CEO of the year for his impressive accomplishments in leading Tesla Motors, SolarCity, and SpaceX, despite concerns about spreading himself too thin. Uber's Travis Kalanick has also been recognized for his innovative solutions and the potential to disrupt industries like automotive and auto insurance through the sharing economy. The alignment of utility, efficiency, and growth in the sharing economy is leading to fewer wasted assets and more efficient use of resources, ultimately benefiting both individuals and the economy.

    • The Sharing Economy and CEO PerformanceThe sharing economy is revolutionizing industries, but some CEOs, like those of Stratasys and Yahoo, face criticism for their performance and large compensation packages. Holiday foods bring joy, but climate change could impact their popularity.

      The sharing economy, represented by companies like Uber, is leading to new and innovative solutions in various sectors. Meanwhile, some CEOs, such as David Rice of Stratasys and Marissa Mayer of Yahoo, have faced criticism for their performance and large compensation packages, despite challenges for their companies. During the discussion, the hosts expressed their excitement for holiday foods, sharing their personal favorites such as potato pancakes, winter beers, Glühwein, and desserts. However, they also pondered if climate change could impact the popularity of certain holiday foods, like hot wine, which is traditionally enjoyed during colder months. Regarding Stratasys, the hosts discussed the significant stock losses due to the poor performance of their MakerBot subsidiary, and the substantial write-downs that have occurred throughout the year. They criticized the management team for getting ahead of the game and overspending on the consumer 3D printing arm. As for Yahoo, the hosts expressed their belief that the company would benefit from new leadership, given Marissa Mayer's lack of traction in the core business and the substantial compensation she is set to receive. Despite her efforts, the company has failed to show significant growth. Overall, the conversation touched upon the potential of the sharing economy, the performance of certain CEOs, and the joy of holiday foods.

    • Motley Fool team shares stock picks for potential investorsConsider Hyster Yale in 2017, Ellie Mae benefits from regulation, Mercado Libre rides e-commerce trend, focus on fundamentals, diversify portfolio

      The Motley Fool team discussed their stock picks for potential investors, with Ron Gross suggesting Hyster Yale, a manufacturer of forklifts, which they recommend keeping unopened until 2017 due to the company's current struggles. Jason Moser recommended Ellie Mae, a company providing automated solutions for the mortgage industry, which could benefit from increasing regulation and high barriers to entry. Arturo Folk recommended Mercado Libre, the largest e-commerce player in Latin America, due to the region's growing e-commerce trend. The team emphasized the importance of considering a company's fundamentals rather than external factors like geographic location. Overall, they suggested a diverse portfolio with stocks from various industries.

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