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    What Wagner did next - the rebranding of Putin’s secret weapon

    enMarch 15, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Stories of Our Times rebrands, LinkedIn's role in hiring, and Russia's political landscapeStories of Our Times is rebranding, LinkedIn is a valuable platform for hiring professionals, and Russia's Putin is expected to win another term despite controversy and potential coup concerns

      The name of a popular news platform, Stories of Our Times, is changing next week, but their commitment to providing in-depth journalism remains the same. Meanwhile, LinkedIn is home to a large pool of professionals, including those not actively seeking new jobs, making it an essential platform for hiring. On a different note, Russia's President Vladimir Putin is expected to win another term in office, despite his authoritarian regime and the arrests of those mourning opposition leader Alexei Navalny. A past event involving the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, raised concerns of a potential coup, but their current status remains unclear. In summary, keep an eye out for the new name of Stories of Our Times, harness the untapped potential of LinkedIn for hiring, and stay informed about the political landscape in Russia.

    • Power struggle within Wagner Group leads to leadership change and reorganizationThe Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organization, faced a power struggle resulting in the death of its leader and a reorganization under Russian intelligence agencies, with the GRU taking control of overseas and Ukrainian operations. The mercenaries showed loyalty to the Russian state despite leadership changes.

      The Wagner Group, a powerful mercenary organization deeply entwined with the Russian security state, faced a power struggle within the Kremlin when its leader, Progynyan, led a demonstration of force against the Russian military leadership. This event, which saw the attempted removal of Defense Minister Shoigu and General Staff Head Gerasimov, ultimately collapsed and resulted in Progynyan's death in a reported plane crash. In the aftermath, various Russian intelligence agencies took control of different aspects of Wagner's operations, with the GRU becoming directly responsible for overseeing the organization's overseas and Ukrainian operations. The deaths of Progynyan and other senior Wagner commanders, including Dmitry Orkin (call sign Wagner), were not just limited to the leader, indicating a strong sense of corporate identity and incompatibility with new leadership among the mercenaries. Despite this, the rest of Wagner appeared to accept the new leadership, suggesting a degree of loyalty to the Russian state despite the change in leadership.

    • The Wagner Group: Russia's Deniable Military ForceRussia's Wagner Group, a secretive military force of former soldiers, has been used to maintain deniability in foreign conflicts, like Syria, where they clashed with American forces. Despite efforts to hide its identity, it remains a significant component of Russia's military presence globally.

      The Russian government has deliberately tried to suppress the identity of the Wagner Group, an organization that emerged from Russian efforts to intervene in Eastern Ukraine and Syria, composed of former Russian service personnel. This group, which embodied nationalist, aggressive, and patriotic values, was used by the Russian government to maintain plausible deniability in military operations. In Syria, the Wagner Group had a confrontation with American forces, leading the US to believe Russian troops were involved. However, the Russian government denied this, highlighting the importance of the Wagner Group's mercenary status in maintaining deniability. Despite efforts to suppress its identity, the Wagner Group represents a significant community of former Russian military personnel continuing to work with the Russian military around the world.

    • US airstrikes on Russian forces in Syria: A game of implausible deniabilityThe US airstrikes on Russian forces in Syria resulted in a significant number of casualties, but both sides used ambiguity to downplay escalation risk and avoid acknowledging a direct military conflict. The Wagner Group's expansion in Africa raises questions about Putin's motivations and Russia's role in African conflicts.

      The US airstrikes on Russian forces in Syria in 2018 resulted in a significant number of casualties, but the Russian government was able to downplay the escalation risk by using implausible deniability. This ambiguity allowed both sides to avoid acknowledging that they were in a direct military conflict. The Russian forces involved were not just ordinary militia members, but included Russian military personnel, aircraft, tanks, weapon systems, and intelligence officers. Despite this, the Kremlin was able to claim that no Russian military personnel had been harmed. This mutual ambiguity was convenient for both sides, allowing them to avoid further escalation. Meanwhile, around the same time, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, was expanding its presence in Africa. Putin's motivation for keeping the Wagner Group in Africa is unclear, but some speculate it may be for resource extraction or geopolitical influence. In Africa, the Wagner Group has been involved in conflicts in Libya, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, among others. In summary, the US airstrikes on Russian forces in Syria led to a significant number of casualties, but both sides were able to use implausible deniability to avoid acknowledging the conflict. Meanwhile, the Wagner Group's expansion in Africa raises questions about Putin's motivations and Russia's role in African conflicts.

    • Russian private military company, Wagner Group, expanding influence in AfricaThe Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, is expanding its influence in Africa, offering security services and resources in exchange for access and goodwill, allowing Russia to assert influence in regions where it had limited presence.

      The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, has been expanding its influence in various countries, particularly in Africa, as part of Russia's efforts to build allies and partnerships outside of the Western sphere. This was driven by Russia's interest in expanding its sphere of influence and mitigating the impact of Western sanctions. The Wagner Group offers security services, often in areas where Western efforts have been ineffective, and provides this service in exchange for access to resources and goodwill. The group's activities have been observed in countries like the Central African Republic, where they have been accused of violating UN Security Council resolutions and exerting significant control over government policy. The Wagner Group's model of diplomatic deals, security provision, and resource acquisition has been successful for Russia, allowing it to assert influence in regions where it had previously been limited.

    • Russia's Military Protection and Propaganda Support for African LeadersRussia is increasing its influence in Africa through military protection and propaganda support to African leaders, offering mining concessions and cost offsetting, leading to the deployment of Wagner 2.0 troops in countries like Burkina Faso, raising concerns about security and long-term implications.

      Russia is offering military protection and propaganda support to African leaders in exchange for mining concessions and the removal of Western companies. This arrangement, which some leaders found attractive due to the perceived improvement in their relationship with Russia and the offsetting of costs, has led to an increase in Russian influence in Africa through Wagner 2.0. Wagner, a private military company, had a presence in various African countries before, including Mali, where they established a gold refinery. More recently, Russia has sent troops to Burkina Faso, with a focus on establishing a presidential protection force and integrating Wagner troops into military battalions. The number of troops fluctuates between 1,000 to 2,000. This arrangement has raised concerns about the potential threat to the security architecture built up around these leaders and the long-term implications of increased Russian influence in Africa.

    • Russian involvement in Mali with controversial methodsAfrican leaders see Russian approach as more effective despite human rights concerns, offering a sense of agency and control, while Western focus on their own interests and distractions leads African countries to seek Russian assistance.

      The Russian involvement in Mali, where they are actively engaging in offensive operations with the Malian military against jihadist groups, has been characterized by controversial methods that include human rights atrocities. These methods, reminiscent of Russia's past anti-partisan warfare tactics, have resulted in the kidnapping of children and demonstrative killings of civilians. Despite these human rights concerns, many African leaders see the Russians as offering a more effective approach compared to the West, who they perceive as freezing the situation and focusing on their own interests. The Russian support gives these leaders a sense of agency and control over their own situations. Additionally, the perception that the West has become distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza has led many African countries to lose faith in Western policy and turn to Russia for assistance. For Russia, the human rights violations make it harder for the West to continue engagement, which is a calculated move they are comfortable with.

    • Russia's economic expansion in Africa disguised as anti-colonialismRussia's involvement in Africa is economically driven, focusing on mining rights and critical resources, bypassing sanctions and generating capital. This ties African countries to Russia, making it unlikely for them to join sanctions regime.

      Russia's involvement in Africa, which they present as a means of distancing these countries from the West and challenging historic colonialism, is actually a form of colonialism itself. The primary motivation behind this expansion is economic, specifically the acquisition of mining rights and control over critical resources like gold, lithium, and uranium. This strategy allows Russia to bypass international sanctions and generate a large body of capital. Additionally, these economic relationships tie African countries to Russia, making it unlikely for them to join the sanctions regime. Russia's interest in strategic resources is a strategic play to undermine alternative sources of supply. Despite attempts to maintain control over Wagner mercenaries, Russia now faces the challenge of sustaining commitments in multiple countries, which could lead to overextension. Overall, Russia's aggressive expansion in Africa poses a serious problem for the West, as it highlights the ongoing global competition between Russia and the Western powers.

    • Understanding the Wagner Group's Geopolitical ImpactThe Wagner Group poses a significant challenge for both the Kremlin and the West, requiring greater attention and understanding to mitigate potential global security implications.

      Key takeaway from this episode of Stories of Our Times is that the geopolitical issue of Wagner Group, while problematic for the Kremlin, poses a significant challenge for the West as well. It's a topic that deserves more attention and shouldn't be overlooked. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, provided valuable insights into the group's activities and its potential implications for global security. On a different note, the podcast also featured some sponsor messages. One was about Osea, a brand offering a seaweed-powered skincare duo for those seeking a radiant and glowing complexion. Another was about Stamps.com, a service that streamlines mailing and shipping processes for businesses, making them more efficient and less busy. In essence, this episode highlighted the importance of being aware of geopolitical issues that can impact the West, while also introducing listeners to products and services designed to make everyday tasks easier.

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