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    Who will pay for the next Covid vaccines?

    enSeptember 28, 2022

    Podcast Summary

    • Biden Administration Faces Challenges in Securing Funding for New COVID-19 Vaccines and TreatmentsThe Biden administration is seeking billions of dollars from Congress to continue their efforts in developing and acquiring new vaccines and treatments, as they face challenges in securing funding and experts warn about the potential consequences of not investing in new types of vaccines with broader immunity to COVID-19 and future respiratory pathogens.

      The Biden administration is facing significant challenges in securing funding for new COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, forcing an uncertain transition out of the pandemic. The administration has had to divert funds from other programs to purchase the new bivalent boosters from Pfizer and Moderna. However, they are currently seeking billions of dollars in additional funding from Congress to continue their efforts in developing and acquiring new vaccines and treatments. Experts, like Ashish Jha, are concerned about the potential consequences of not investing in new types of vaccines with broader immunity to COVID-19 and future respiratory pathogens. The lack of investment could leave Americans vulnerable and hinder the country's ability to effectively manage current and future pandemics.

    • Record-breaking development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccinesCOVID-19 vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer, and BioNTech set sales records, generating over $110 billion in 2021 and projected revenues of similar amounts in 2022, making them the fastest-selling medicines in history

      The development and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, particularly the mRNA vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer, and BioNTech, represent an unprecedented scientific achievement and financial success story. With governments worldwide investing unprecedented amounts of money and resources into Operation Warp Speed and similar initiatives, these vaccines were developed at record speed, with Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech leading the way. The success of these vaccines has been financially lucrative for the companies involved, with combined sales of over $110 billion in 2021 and projected revenues of a similar amount in 2022. This makes the COVID-19 vaccines the fastest-selling medicines of all time and a significant commercial success for the involved companies, scientists, and executives.

    • Declared end of pandemic causes drop in vaccine maker sharesThe end of the pandemic declaration led to a drop in vaccine maker shares due to investor fears of shrinking revenue growth, but companies plan to produce annual COVID boosters like influenza vaccines

      The end of the pandemic as declared by President Biden has caused significant concerns for vaccine manufacturers and their investors. The declaration, despite Biden also acknowledging that there is still work to be done, led to a significant drop in the share prices of major vaccine makers Pfizer, Moderna, and BioNTech. This drop is due to investors' fears that the end of the pandemic means the end of the COVID vaccine market's revenue growth. In response, pharma companies are preparing for a phase where they will produce annual boosters for COVID, similar to the market for influenza vaccines. However, the political environment created by Biden's comments may make it more difficult for the Biden administration to secure funding for COVID response efforts from Republican lawmakers.

    • COVID-19 vaccine market shifting towards private sectorCompanies may face lower sales due to logistical challenges, but could gain more control over pricing. Next-gen vaccines offer potential for increased revenue in the long run, but US influenza market revenue may not be replicated.

      The future of COVID-19 vaccines is shifting towards a private market, which could result in lower sales and revenues for pharmaceutical companies due to the logistical challenges of managing multiple buyers and the potential for lower bulk purchases. However, companies stand to gain more control over pricing, which could offset some of the revenue loss. Additionally, Pfizer, Moderna, and BioNTech are continuing their research and development efforts, focusing on creating next-generation COVID-19 vaccines that offer longer-lasting protection and immunity against a broader range of coronaviruses. These advancements could lead to increased revenue in the long run. The annual sales in the US influenza market, which currently generate over $5 billion in revenue from annual booster shots, may not be replicated in the COVID-19 vaccine market as it transitions to a private market. Overall, the vaccine industry is facing a significant shift, and companies must adapt to this new market landscape while continuing to innovate and develop new vaccines.

    • Next-generation vaccines needed to combat new variantsCurrent vaccines face challenges against new variants, nasal and oral vaccines offer hope, but funding for their development is lacking

      The current COVID-19 vaccines may not be effective against new variants, and developing new types of vaccines, specifically nasal and oral vaccines, could provide more protection and help end the pandemic more definitively. The interview with White House COVID coordinator Ashish Jha highlighted the importance of funding for new vaccine research. Current vaccines, which were initially 95% effective against infection, are now facing challenges due to the virus's ability to evade the immune system. Nasal and oral vaccines offer hope as they could boost immunity in the local area where the virus enters the body, potentially blocking infection. However, there's a concern that the US government has focused too much on existing shots and boosters, and a new generation of vaccines is needed to get ahead of the virus. Unfortunately, there's been little effort to prioritize and invest in the development of next-generation vaccines.

    • Exploring new ways to administer COVID-19 vaccines, like nasal sprays, approved in India and ChinaResearchers are investigating nasal spray vaccines, approved in India and China, but their effectiveness is uncertain. US invests in research, but lack of funding is a barrier. New COVID-19 variants may require another mobilization, but politicization could hinder a coordinated response.

      Researchers are exploring new ways to administer COVID-19 vaccines, such as nasal sprays, and have already gained regulatory approval for two such vaccines in India and China. However, the effectiveness of these vaccines is not yet fully understood. The US is also investing in nasal vaccine research, but lack of funding is a major hurdle. With the ongoing threat of new COVID-19 variants, there is a possibility of another mobilization like Operation Warp Speed, but the politicization of the pandemic in the US may hinder a coordinated response. The emergence of a new variant that is more infectious or able to evade the immune system could cause significant problems.

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