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    Will Saletan: The GOP Surrenders before First Vote

    en-usJanuary 15, 2024

    Podcast Summary

    • Unexpected joy in a Packers upsetUnexpected events, like sports upsets, can bring people together and provide a welcome distraction from daily challenges

      Despite the harsh winter conditions and unexpected power outages, the speaker found joy and connection in the unexpected upset of the Green Bay Packers over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL playoffs. The speaker, a Texan and Cowboys fan, expressed admiration for the Packers' efficiency and resilience, and found solace in the shared experience of watching the game with his wife. Despite the overwhelming amount of punditry and speculation surrounding the Iowa caucuses, the speaker chose to focus on this moment of joy and excitement, reminding us that unexpected events, no matter how small, can bring people together and provide a welcome distraction from the challenges of everyday life. The Packers' victory was a reminder that upsets do happen and that sometimes, the underdogs come out on top.

    • Republican Party's Shift in Allegiance to TrumpOnce critical of Trump, some Republicans like Mike Lee and Marco Rubio have endorsed him despite his past controversies, raising concerns about their principles and the future direction of the party.

      The Republican Party's allegiance to Donald Trump has shifted dramatically in a short period, with many politicians endorsing him before the primaries have even begun. This includes individuals like Mike Lee and Marco Rubio, who were once vocal critics of Trump. Their change of heart raises questions about the evolution or devolution of their principles, as Trump has been found liable for rape allegations and has made controversial statements throughout his presidency. Marco Rubio, in particular, had warned against Trump's authoritarian tendencies in 2016, but now endorses him despite his disregard for the rule of law. The speed and breadth of this shift highlights the current state of the Republican Party and the potential consequences for the future.

    • Republican leaders endorsing Trump despite past criticismsMany GOP leaders endorsed Trump before primaries, prioritizing political gain over moral principles

      Despite acknowledging the problematic conduct of former President Trump, many Republican leaders have endorsed him before the primary elections, even when there were other alternatives. This includes Marco Rubio and Mike Lee, who had criticized Trump in the past but have since endorsed him. Some argue that this is due to a desire to be remembered by Trump or a goal to secure a position in the Supreme Court. Regardless of the reason, this behavior demonstrates a lack of moral principles and a willingness to compromise values for political gain. The Iowa caucuses, which had not yet begun at the time of the discussion, served as evidence that the binary choice between Trump and the Democrats did not matter to the Republican Party, as a majority had already endorsed Trump before any votes were cast.

    • The Power and Fear of Donald Trump in the Republican PrimaryRepublican politicians fear and respect Trump, leading to endorsements to secure favors and avoid his wrath. Trump is expected to win the Iowa primary, with focus on 50% threshold and second place finisher. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis face an uphill battle. Iowa primary day is expected to be very cold.

      The ongoing political race in Iowa and South Carolina is a reflection of fear and respect among Republican politicians towards Donald Trump. Despite their reservations, many are endorsing him to secure favors and avoid his wrath. Marco Rubio's early endorsement of Trump before the Florida primary, despite his dislike for Ron DeSantis, is a prime example of this trend. The Iowa primary is expected to result in a Trump victory, with the focus on whether he will surpass the 50% threshold and who will finish second. Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, who are both in the race, face an uphill battle against Trump's significant lead. The temperature in Iowa on the day of the primary is also expected to be very cold, potentially keeping some voters at home. Overall, the Republican primary race is a testament to the power and fear that Trump holds over his party.

    • Impact of Iowa Caucus on Haley's CampaignThe Iowa caucus could impact Haley's campaign by potentially allowing DeSantis to overtake her due to less enthusiasm among her supporters. This matters because Haley is the only viable alternative to Trump in the primary.

      The Iowa caucus could significantly impact the Republican primary race, particularly for Nikki Haley. The data suggests that Haley has less enthusiastic and fewer Republican supporters compared to her competitors like Ron DeSantis. If a large number of her less enthusiastic supporters stay home due to the cold weather, DeSantis could potentially overtake Haley. This matters because Haley is the only remaining challenger who could potentially beat Donald Trump in the primary. Therefore, keeping her alive in the race for a few more weeks is crucial to keep the possibility of an alternative to Trump open. The enthusiasm gap between Haley and Trump's supporters, as shown in the Anne Seltzer poll, is significant, with only 39% of Haley's voters being extremely or very enthusiastic compared to 89% for Trump's voters. However, this gap may not be inconsistent with a candidate gaining momentum, as Haley's supporters are likely to be late deciders and uncommitted voters. Additionally, half of Haley's support in the Iowa poll comes from self-described independents or Democrats, which could pose a challenge in the later primaries. Chris Christie faced a similar issue and ultimately had to drop out of the race.

    • Republican primary electorate disconnected from truth and unwilling to hold Trump accountableThe Republican Party is facing a crisis of faith in key institutions due to a disconnected electorate unwilling to hold Trump accountable, questioning election results, courts, law enforcement, and juries, which could have long-term consequences for American democracy.

      The Republican primary electorate appears to be deeply disconnected from the truth and unwilling to hold former President Trump accountable for his actions, as shown in recent polls. This trend has led to a diseased electorate within the Republican primary, with many hardcore supporters refusing to vote against Trump even if presented with alternatives like Nikki Haley. This attitude extends beyond Trump, with some Republicans questioning the legitimacy of election results, courts, law enforcement, and even juries. The delegitimization of these institutions could have long-term consequences for American democracy. Iowa Senator Joni Ernst's comments on trusting the criminal justice system further illustrate this issue. In essence, the Republican Party is facing a crisis of faith in key institutions, and it could be a significant challenge for the future of American democracy.

    • Senator Ernst downplays January 6th Capitol insurrection and denies using 'insurrection' termRepublican Senator Joni Ernst dismisses January 6th Capitol attack's significance, raises doubts on party's commitment to accountability and checks and balances.

      During a discussion on a potential second presidency for Donald Trump and the possibility of pardoning those convicted in relation to the January 6th Capitol insurrection, Senator Joni Ernst downplayed the significance of the event and stated it was within the president's prerogative to grant pardons. She also denied using the term "insurrection" in an op-ed piece she wrote after the event. This raises concerns about the Republican Party's stance on holding accountable those who attacked the Capitol and questions the effectiveness of checks and balances within the party. The fact that top Republican senators have already endorsed Trump before any votes have been cast further highlights this issue.

    • Politicians' behavior towards Trump's actions raises concerns for democracyRepublican politicians' lack of condemnation and accountability for Trump's divisive actions and rhetoric is a dangerous trend for American democracy, potentially leading to further polarization and violence.

      The Republican politicians' behavior towards Donald Trump's actions, such as apologizing for the right thing and defending him despite his orders potentially leading to political violence, raises concerns about their commitment to upholding the law and protecting democracy. Trump's revival of the Muslim ban and attacks on political opponents, including Nikki Haley, are expected to be part of his 2024 campaign. The normalization of such behavior and rhetoric, including the use of divisive language and attacks on opponents based on their race or ethnicity, is a dangerous trend that could potentially lead to further political polarization and even violence. The lack of condemnation and accountability from Republican senators for Trump's actions and rhetoric is a worrying sign for the future of American democracy.

    • Politics of division and fascist tacticsTrump's divisive language and policies targeting specific groups, such as the Muslim ban, are concerning signs of fascist tactics. Many Republicans believe immigrants are 'poisoning the blood' of the country, and Trump continues to use such rhetoric, normalizing it in political discourse.

      The use of divisive language and policies targeting specific religious groups or ethnicities, as exemplified by Donald Trump's Muslim ban, is a concerning step towards fascist tactics. This issue is not a thing of the past, but a significant present-day concern, as evidenced by the high percentage of Republicans believing immigrants are "poisoning the blood" of the country. Trump's repetition of such rhetoric, including his recent attacks on Nikki Haley, underscores his commitment to these divisive views. The normalization of such language in the political discourse is a dangerous development, and it's crucial to acknowledge and address these issues to protect the future of the country.

    • Republican views on democracy and political violenceA majority of Republican primary voters prioritize a strong economy over democracy, support a candidate who backs January 6th Capitol rioters, and favor pardons for those charged.

      The latest polling data reveals a significant portion of the American population, particularly the Republican electorate, holds concerning views regarding democracy and political violence. Among Republicans, prioritizing a strong economy over a functioning democracy was a preference for 65% of respondents. Furthermore, a candidate who supports those involved in the January 6th Capitol riots was preferred by a majority of Republican primary voters (41%) over one who criticizes them. Additionally, 67% of Republican primary voters favored a nominee who would pardon those charged in the riot. These findings indicate a dangerous disregard for democratic norms within the Republican Party, which could hinder efforts to address pressing issues like border security and immigration reform.

    • Deep-rooted racial resentment remains a challenge in AmericaDespite progress, deep-rooted racial resentment persists, with some believing anti-discrimination policies have gone too far, leading to division and frustration, particularly in education and politics.

      While America has made institutional progress since Martin Luther King Junior's time, there is still a deep-rooted issue with racial resentment and fear that remains a significant challenge. The cultural shift towards acceptance of interracial marriage and dating is evident, but polls show that more people believe we've gone too far in implementing anti-discrimination policies. The Republican Party now holds a large concentration of this resentment, and politicians must decide whether to appeal to it or try to tame it. Education, particularly higher education, is an institution that has failed to address the racial achievement gap effectively, leading to frustration and resentment towards efforts to promote diversity and equality. Martin Luther King Junior would have seen education as the greatest instrument for racial advancement, but this goal remains unrealized. The pushback against DEI initiatives is a response to what some perceive as a rigid ideological agenda, leading to further division.

    • Political climate marked by bad faith actors exploiting divisive issuesBad faith actors manipulate divisive topics for political gain, hindering progress on complex issues.

      The current political climate is marked by bad faith actors exploiting divisive issues like education, critical race theory, and gender identity for political gain, rather than addressing complex problems in good faith. These actors inflame resentment and distract from real issues, making it difficult for progress to be made. The Republican Party, in particular, has been criticized for this approach, and it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue or if there will be a shift towards more productive dialogue. Additionally, international issues, such as military action against the Houthis in the Middle East, have become politicized, with the Republican Party criticizing the Biden administration for taking action, despite having supported similar actions under the previous administration. This raises questions about the future direction of the Republican Party and its approach to foreign policy.

    • 2024 Republican Primary and the Shift Towards IsolationismThe 2024 Republican Primary could see a significant shift towards isolationism in the party's platform, challenging the historical trend of internationalism and raising concerns about the future of the Republican Party.

      The 2024 Republican Primary could mark a significant shift towards isolationism in the party's platform, with candidates like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley representing contrasting views. This development is concerning because, historically, key elections in 1940 and 1952 saw the Republicans reject isolationism in favor of internationalism, leading to significant policy changes. However, the current political landscape appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with a majority of Republican voters expressing opposition to supporting Ukraine through USAID, according to a recent CBS poll. This trend raises questions about the future of the Republican Party and its ability to return to an internationalist stance. The historical context shows that Republican establishments in the past had the power to influence the party's direction. However, the current Republican Party is dominated by Trump and the MAGA movement, making a shift back to internationalism a challenging prospect.

    • Staying informed and engaged in current eventsBeing aware of pressing issues and understanding different perspectives is crucial for making informed decisions and participating in meaningful conversations. Resilience and perseverance are valuable traits for overcoming challenges and making a difference.

      Learning from today's Bullwork podcast is the importance of staying informed and engaged in current events. We heard from various guests discussing pressing issues, from politics to technology, and how they're impacting our lives. This podcast serves as a reminder that being aware of these topics and understanding different perspectives is crucial for making informed decisions and participating in meaningful conversations. Additionally, we learned about the value of resilience and perseverance, as our guests shared their experiences of overcoming challenges and continuing to make a difference. Lastly, the Bulwark contest, produced by Katie Cooper and engineered and edited by [name], is a platform for these discussions and a reminder that there's always more to learn and explore. Tune in tomorrow for another insightful episode.

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