Podcast Summary
Weakening democratic norms and its implications: Political scientist Yascha Mounk discusses the global trend of weakening democratic norms and its potential implications, including authoritarianism, incompetence, populism, and xenophobia.
The consensus around democratic governance and norms is weakening not just in America but elsewhere. This weakening of democratic norms is contributing to the unusual political outcomes we're seeing, according to Yascha Mounk, a political scientist, lecturer at Harvard, and fellow at the New America Foundation. Mounk's research suggests that this trend is not unexpected if we consider what people are saying about the political systems they want to live in and what they value. The conversation on The Ezra Klein Show delves into the potential implications of this trend, discussing whether it represents authoritarianism, incompetence, populism, or xenophobia. Mounk, who grew up in Germany and has written a book about his experiences called "Strange in My Own Country," offers valuable insights into the current political climate and what it may mean for our future. Listen to the full conversation for a thoughtful and enlightening discussion on the state of our political system.
The assumption that economic prosperity leads to democracy is being questioned: Younger generations value democracy less, and countries like China and Saudi Arabia have shown economic growth without becoming democratic
The consensus in social sciences that economic prosperity leads to the consolidation of democracy and that people value democracy more than ever before is no longer valid. According to the discussion, this assumption has been questioned in recent years as countries like China and Saudi Arabia have shown economic growth without moving towards democracy. Moreover, the importance of living in a democracy is declining among younger generations, with fewer millennials valuing it compared to older generations. Additionally, there's an increasing support for authoritarian alternatives, such as army rule, among young and affluent Americans. These findings are surprising and seem to contradict the common assumption that there's a deep-rooted support for democracy. However, it's important to note that these poll numbers might not reflect people's true intentions and could be influenced by various factors, including symbolic registrations of dissatisfaction or frustration with the system. Nonetheless, the trend suggests a shift in attitudes towards democracy, which has significant implications for the future of democratic governance.
Growing disillusionment with democracy doesn't equal authoritarian rule: Younger generations express disenchantment with democracy, but it doesn't necessarily mean they want authoritarian rule. Instead, they may lack faith in the current system and desire reforms for a more inclusive and equitable democracy.
While the numbers indicating a growing number of Americans expressing dissatisfaction with democracy and openness to alternative forms of government may be concerning, it's essential to consider these findings in context. These trends reflect a growing disillusionment with the current state of democracy, particularly regarding the perception that the system is biased towards the powerful and the elites. This disillusionment doesn't necessarily equate to a deep preference for authoritarian rule but rather a lack of faith in the existing democratic system. Moreover, it's important to remember that these sentiments don't represent a clear-cut desire for army rule, but rather a sign of a growing disenchantment with the political system. Additionally, it's worth noting that younger generations may lack the same instinctive understanding of the importance of defending the political system as older generations who experienced historical threats to democracy. Ultimately, these trends underscore the need for reforms that make democracy more inclusive and equitable for all.
The rise of radical politicians due to public discontent: Discontent and disillusionment with the democratic system can make people open to radical politicians, fueled by feelings of powerlessness and lack of representation. Historical context shows this was a factor in the rise of the Nazis, underscoring the importance of addressing root causes and ensuring representation.
The public's discontent and disillusionment with the democratic system, fueled by a sense of powerlessness and lack of representation, has made people more open to radical politicians who promise to shake things up. This discontent was discussed in relation to the Citizens United case and the election of Donald Trump. The historical context was provided by a book called "They Thought They Were Free," which explored the experiences of ordinary Germans during the rise of the Nazis. The book showed that many Germans felt voiceless and powerless, and were drawn to the Nazis for a sense of status and control. While it's important not to make direct comparisons between the Nazi party and contemporary politics, the parallels in terms of feelings of powerlessness and disillusionment are striking. Overall, the discussion underscores the importance of addressing the root causes of public discontent and ensuring that all voices are heard in the democratic process.
People's desire for power and recognition goes beyond formal structures: Understanding the drivers of democratic deconsolidation requires examining both formal structures and people's feelings of power and respect within a system
The desire for political power and recognition goes beyond formal democratic structures. Hitler's rise to power in Germany was driven by people's feelings of being dismissed and humiliated, which they believed the democratic system failed to address. They sought a strong leader who would listen to them and elevate their interests. This phenomenon is not unique to America or the 21st century. The rise of illiberal attitudes and democratic deconsolidation can be observed in various countries. It's crucial to recognize both the common drivers and the differences in the severity of these developments. While people may feel economically disenfranchised and worried about the future, it's essential not to overlook the unique historical contexts that contribute to these sentiments. The academic analysis of power and democracy should consider not only the formal structures but also the perceived power and respect people feel within a system.
Measuring the Threat to Democratic Norms: The absence of a strong consensus around liberal democracy is a serious warning sign, challenging our confidence in the political system's stability.
The current political climate has led to increased concerns about the state of democratic norms and institutions. Measuring the degree of threat can be done through public opinion polls and observing whether politicians respect democratic norms. However, interpreting these polls can be complex, as some respondents may express dissatisfaction with the current system without necessarily endorsing authoritarian alternatives. The absence of a strong consensus around liberal democracy is a serious warning sign, as it challenges the theoretical grounds for our confidence in the political system. Throughout history, many political systems have proven to be unstable, and it's essential to recognize that the United States' long history of democracy does not guarantee its stability in the present.
The future stability of liberal democracy is uncertain due to economic and social conditions: Economic growth and liberal democracy have been linked for the past 200 years, but economic stagnation and social tensions could threaten this relationship
The stability of liberal democracy may not be guaranteed in the future due to unique economic and social conditions. For most of human history, economic growth was minimal and living standards did not significantly change from one generation to the next. However, the last 200 years have seen unprecedented economic growth, which has coincided with the stability of liberal democracy. Some economists predict a period of secular stagnation, which could lead to decreased economic growth and potentially threaten the stability of liberal democracy. Additionally, the shift towards more multiethnic and equal democracies, particularly in the US, has created new challenges. Economic growth is no longer evenly shared, leading to tensions and divisions based on identity and perceived unfairness. The intersection of these economic and social trends is complex and requires further exploration.
The impact of cultural and ethnic homogeneity on democratic stability: Europe's post-war democratization success linked to homogeneity, but mass immigration introduces challenges, leading to debates on integration and equality, particularly in historically homogeneous countries, while multiethnic democracies like the US and Spain face new challenges in ensuring equality.
The stability and success of democracy in a nation can be influenced by the cultural and ethnic homogeneity of its population. Historically, democratic institutions took root in Europe after World War 2, when the continent became more ethnically homogeneous due to the war and its aftermath. However, mass immigration over the last 50 years from culturally different regions introduced new challenges. In some cases, immigrants were seen as temporary "guests," making it difficult for societies to fully integrate them. The contentious issue of how to treat these newcomers has led to debates about creating a caste or class society, or embracing them as true compatriots. This struggle is particularly evident in countries that have historically been more homogeneous, like Germany. In contrast, the United States and Spain have had multiethnic populations for longer, but now face the challenge of creating an equal multiethnic democracy. The rise of right-wing populism in various countries, including the United States, France, and England, is a complex issue that may be driven by both economic stagnation and rapidly changing demographics. Ultimately, understanding the interplay between these factors is crucial for addressing the challenges of creating and maintaining democratic institutions in an increasingly diverse world.
Complex reasons for political support: People's support for politicians like Trump is influenced by economic anxiety, identity politics, feelings of decline, historical voting patterns, demographic transitions, and a sense of loss of identity and collective belonging.
The reasons behind people's support for politicians like Donald Trump are more complex than just economic anxiety or identity politics. While both factors play a role, they are interconnected and influenced by other elements such as feelings of decline and resentment among the lower and middle classes, historical voting patterns, and demographic transitions. These issues can lead to a sense of loss of identity and collective belonging, which can contribute to racial and demographic resentment. It's important to recognize that these issues are interconnected and not to oversimplify the situation by focusing on one factor alone.
Perception of Zero-Sum Politics: The perception of zero-sum politics can undermine liberal democracy, fueled by economic inequality and societal power concentration. It's important to recognize that politics doesn't have to be a zero-sum game, but it may depend on certain conditions for people to see it that way.
The rapid demographic changes in America and the perception of limited resources have contributed to a growing sense of zero-sum politics. This perception, fueled by populist leaders like Trump, Brexit, and Le Pen, can undermine the healthy functioning of liberal democracy. Many people feel that politics is a zero-sum game, where one group's gain comes at the expense of another. This feeling is particularly strong when economic growth is slow or unequal, and when societal power is concentrated in the hands of the wealthy. These circumstances can activate tribal identities and exacerbate tensions. It's important to recognize that politics doesn't have to be a zero-sum game, but it may depend on certain conditions for people to see it that way. These conditions include relative international peace, stability, and huge increases in affluence. When the economic pie isn't growing for the majority of the population, as has been the case for many Americans over the last 30 years, the perception of zero-sum politics can become deeply ingrained.
Celebrating America's Immigrant Roots and Multi-Ethnic Democracy: The U.S. citizenship ceremony emphasizes America's history as an immigrant nation and the potential for true belonging in a multi-ethnic democracy, despite challenges during divisive times.
Becoming a U.S. citizen is a deeply meaningful experience that emphasizes the country's history as an immigrant nation. The ceremony at the JFK Presidential Library in Boston, where the speaker was an immigrant and Muslim, underscored this idea. The speaker acknowledged the challenges of achieving true multi-ethnic democracy in the U.S., especially during politically divisive times, but remained optimistic about the country's ability to integrate people of all backgrounds. The speaker shared their personal experience of growing up Jewish in Germany and feeling like an outsider despite being treated well, and contrasted it with the potential for true belonging in the U.S. The ceremony's emphasis on America's immigrant roots and the aspirations of a multi-ethnic democracy was a powerful reminder of the country's unique ability to integrate people and create a sense of belonging.
The promise of America: Defining oneself beyond racial or ethnic identities: The Trump era has raised concerns about democratic backsliding and illiberalism, with some seeing Trump's instincts as a danger to American institutions, while others view him as incompetent. It's important to remain vigilant and protect the promise of a just America where individuals can define themselves beyond their race or ethnicity.
The promise of America lies in its ability to allow individuals to define themselves beyond their racial or ethnic identities. However, this promise has yet to be fully realized as being black still defines one's identity to some extent. The Trump era in politics has raised questions about illiberalism and democratic backsliding, with concerns about Trump's authoritarian instincts and disregard for institutions. While some argue that Trump is incompetent and poses no threat to American institutions, others see his instinctual liberalism as a danger. Looking at countries like Poland and Hungary, where democratic institutions have come under threat, it's important to recognize the warning signs and not ignore them. Those who have taken power in these countries, like Kaczynski in Poland and Oban in Hungary, share similar characteristics, including the belief that politics is simple and that the establishment is corrupt and self-serving. It's crucial to remain vigilant and hold on to the promise of a truly just America where individuals have the freedom to define themselves beyond their racial or ethnic identities.
Instinctual vs Ideological Illiberalism: Trump's actions towards democratic institutions lack a clear strategy or principled view, instead driven by personal grievances and impulses, but still pose a threat to democratic norms.
While some leaders, like Orban and Kaczynski, have a clear ideological agenda to undermine democratic institutions, others, like Trump, may have instincts to do so but lack a well-thought-out plan. Trump's actions towards the media and the FBI can be seen as illiberal, but they don't seem to be driven by a principled view or a clear strategy to weaken these institutions. Instead, his actions appear to be impulsive and driven by personal grievances. Despite his threats to democratic norms, Trump has missed opportunities to significantly undermine these institutions and has faced a counter reaction to his actions. It's important to recognize the distinction between instinctual and ideological illiberalism when evaluating the actions of political leaders.
Donald Trump's presidency driven by instincts, not ideology: Trump's instincts can lead to illiberal actions, but his incompetence may actually preserve democratic norms, as public tolerates his rhetoric and Overton window shifts
Donald Trump's presidency may not be driven by a clear ideology or agenda, but rather by his instincts and reactions. These instincts can sometimes lead to illiberal actions, such as attacking the press or undermining democratic institutions. However, some of his incompetence may actually serve as a saving grace in terms of preserving democratic norms. The American public seems to tolerate his illiberal rhetoric, and a more effective politician could do significant damage with the base he has built. The Overton window has shifted dramatically, making politics feel less safe and predictable than it did before Trump's election.
Uncertainty Surrounds Trump's Presidency and the Future of American Democracy: The political climate in the US is unpredictable, with institutions like the courts effectively checking the president's power but concerns about further instability. The outcome of the situation remains uncertain, with potential for renewed commitment to democracy or disillusionment leading to more radical alternatives.
The current political climate in the United States, particularly regarding the presidency, is unpredictable and the outcome of the situation with President Trump is still uncertain. While some believe that the reaction to Trump's actions may rein him in, others fear that it could lead to even more radical figures emerging. The response of American institutions, particularly the courts, has been effective in checking the president's power, but there is still concern about the potential for further instability. The speaker expresses optimism that the experience of living through this period may lead to a renewed commitment to democracy, but also acknowledges the possibility that people may become disillusioned and seek out more radical alternatives. Ultimately, the range of possible outcomes is vast, and it remains to be seen how the situation will unfold.
The Challenges of Political Parties in the US: Despite their importance in American democracy, political parties face significant challenges. They've lost control over their nominating processes, leading to unqualified candidates and an unpredictable electoral outcome. Addressing this issue is crucial to maintaining the health of our democracy.
The current political climate in the United States is facing significant challenges due to the weakness of political parties and the power of partisanship. The historical context reveals that parties are an odd institution in American politics, necessary for making mass democracy work but not originally part of the political system. In the current context, parties have lost control over their nominating processes, leading to the rise of unqualified demagogic candidates. Once nominated, these candidates seem to start with a strong base of support due to partisanship, making it unpredictable who gets elected. This dynamic creates a gaping hole in democracy and could lead to persistent problems. The media and intelligence services have played crucial roles in exposing wrongdoings, but the ongoing conflict between the executive branch and these institutions could have detrimental consequences. It's essential to address the weakness of political parties and find a way to ensure that they regain control over their processes while preserving the essential role of partisanship in American politics.
Growing dissatisfaction with political parties leads to weakening structures and rise of independents: Despite deep partisanship, there's a growing trend of dissatisfaction with traditional party structures leading to the rise of independent candidates. This can be seen in both the US and Europe, with more self-described independents but also more consistent party loyalty and voting patterns.
Despite the deep partisanship in American politics, there is also a growing dissatisfaction with political parties. This dissatisfaction has led to a weakening of traditional party structures and the rise of independent candidates. This trend can be seen in various countries in Europe, where once-stable party systems have become polarized and new parties have emerged. In the United States, the Democratic and Republican parties have historically included a wide range of views, from liberal to conservative. Recent elections have seen unexpected victories by candidates who were once considered outsiders, such as Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. The American system allows for these changes to occur within the main two parties, but the weakening of party structures could lead to more rapid and significant shifts in political alignment. A recent study found that while there appears to be more consistent party loyalty and voting patterns than ever before, there are also more self-described independents. This paradox highlights the complex nature of political affiliation in the modern era.
The shift in party affiliation and negative partisanship: In recent elections, independents are more stable in their choices than strong partisans were decades ago due to increased polarization and perceived threats. Trump's election was partly due to this phenomenon, and it could make it easier for demagogues to lead parties in illiberal directions.
The dynamic between party affiliation and negative partisanship has shifted significantly over the decades. According to a study by Michael Schmidt, self-described independents in recent elections are more stable in their party choices than strong partisans were in the 1970s. This is due to the increasing polarization of parties, which has led to a significant increase in fear and perceived threat of the opposing party. Trump's election in 2016 can be explained in part by this phenomenon, as many voters chose to support him not because they particularly liked him or his party, but because they feared Clinton and the Democratic Party even more. Additionally, as parties have become more ideologically distinct, it has become harder for individuals to switch sides, even if they hold strong negative opinions towards their own party. This trend could have serious consequences, as it could make it easier for demagogues to take over a party and lead it in illiberal directions. The distinction between partisanship and negative partisanship is important, as it highlights the fact that individuals may not have a deep sense of loyalty to their party, but rather a strong aversion to the opposing party.
Exploring Relevant Works in Politics and Society: John Stuart Mill's works on individual freedom and equality, V.S. Naipaul's 'House of Mr. Biswas' on poverty's impact, and 'The Leopard' by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa's cautionary tale provide insights into politics, society, and human nature.
The future cannot be predicted with certainty in politics, as evidenced by the rise of third parties in Europe and the increasing volatility in American politics. John Stuart Mill's works, particularly "On Liberty" and "The Subjection of Women," offer insights into the importance of individual freedom and equality, which are relevant to the current political climate. V.S. Naipaul's "House of Mr. Biswas" provides a poignant exploration of poverty and its impact on human behavior, challenging romanticized notions of generosity and vulnerability. Lastly, "The Leopard" by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa offers a cautionary tale of the need for radical change to preserve the positive aspects of a system, even as it undergoes transformation. These books offer valuable perspectives on politics, society, and human nature that are worth exploring.
The importance of addressing the crisis of liberal democracy and the rise of populism: To protect the aspects of our system that we value, we must address the crisis of liberal democracy and the rise of populism. Follow Yascha Mounk's work for solutions.
Preserving valuable aspects of our system requires considering radical changes and making sacrifices. Yascha Mounk, a Harvard professor and author, discussed this during an insightful conversation on The Ezra Klein Show. He emphasized the importance of addressing the crisis of liberal democracy and the rise of populism. To keep up with his work, listeners can follow his weekly column "The Good Fight" on SLATE, listen to his podcast of the same name on Neuromacher, or read his upcoming book with Harvard University Press, which will provide solutions to these issues. Overall, the conversation underscored the urgency of addressing these challenges to protect the aspects of our system that we value.
