omi

The capital had been utterly destroyed by the Onin War and when the conflict ended, it was time to rebuild. The Bakufu needed to rebuild its image and Shogun Ashikaga Yoshihisa saw an opportunity in neighboring Omi Province, where a Daimyo of the Rokkaku had been seizing lands without permission.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news the rise in both American personal income and personal spending topped forecasts in June, but bond markets have ignored this strength.

But first in China, they said they had an inflow of foreign investment in June of +US24.5 bln in the month. That was their best monthly result in more than a year.

But this comes after Beijing meetings on their economic slowdown and how they are responding. Missing are any mentions of the 5½% 2022 growth target. Replaced are calls for measures to "expand demand", work on "preventing decline" and "stabilising the current situation".

And over the weekend, their official PMIs were released for July. After having popped up to a rare expansion in June, the July manufacturing PMI contracted again, as it had done in each of the March to May months. So that is four of the past five months contracting. Both new orders and especially new export orders, fell. It wasn't a contraction analysts were expecting. Their services PMI was still expanding at a good pace July, but less so than in June, and their claim seems an odd result when only three of the ten sub-indexes actually expanded. New orders contracted in the 12 of the past 13 months.

However, the easing Chinese lockdowns, as tentative and uncertain as they have been, supercharged Japanese industrial production. After taking a heavy hit in May, this June rebound more than made up for the earlier shortfall and was way better than expected. It was the first rise in industrial output since March and the steepest pace on record. But Japanese retail sales growth slowed in June.

In the US the widely watched PCE inflation gauge rose +1.0% in June from May, more than expected and up +6.8% in a year. But these inflation levels are far lower than the US CPI measure of inflation (+9.1%).

For a fourth consecutive week, American petrol prices have fallen. So some heat is coming out of this source of inflation. 

Perhaps more importantly, the PCE data set shows both incomes and spending growing faster than expected. Personal incomes are up +7.2% in a year, a rate that has been stable for many months. Personal spending growth was up more, but this is a more volatile series and is up at the rate of +7.6%. These shifts show on average most households are not quite keeping up with inflation. The slippage however is being assumed as more than it really is, which is why sentiment surveys are quite negative.

All of these indicators keep pressure on the Fed.

The widely watched University of Michigan sentiment survey bounced off its lows in July, but remains deeply pessimistic. In fact it is still basically at its all-time low in a record that does back 44 years, six recessions and some of those were long and deep. Yet, the US has record low unemployment and is not in recession presently, and yet these types of sentiment surveys record lowest-ever mood depths. But company earnings remain very strong. It is not easy to reconcile. They may be talking themselves into a recession.

Expanding at a moderate pace, even if less so, is the heartland Chicago PMI. But of note in this survey is the sharpish shrinkage of new orders. Inventories are rising.

On the heels of the advance US Q2 GDP release on Friday, there were a slew of countries releasing Q2 economic activity reports over the weekend. Canada's was flat from May but up +1.1% in the year. Taiwan's was up +3.1% for the year. Mexico says it was up +2.1% for them. And the overall EU rate was +4.0% and a better than expected result. It was lower than the +5.4% in Q1, but well above the expected +3.4%. These come after a set of national releases that included France who said it grew +4.2% over the past year. Germany reported a +1.1% expansion rate. New Zealand won't report its Q2 GDP result until September 15.

In Australia, producer prices rose +5.6% over the past year to June, slightly faster than in the year to March, but lower than their CPI rise of 6.1%. The equivalent New Zealand data for the June quarter isn't due out until August 17, 2022.

Staying in Australia, the latest APRA data shows moderating growth in mortgage loans to owner-occupiers as rate hikes and the rising cost of living taps the brakes for household borrowing, but loans to investors are picking up sharply - in anticipation of more migration. Overall, private sector lending was up more than +9% year-on-year.

The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.66% where it ended in New York last week. 

The price of gold opens today at US$1767/oz in New York which is up +US$2 from this time Saturday.

And oil prices start the week marginally softer at just on US$97.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now at US$103.50/bbl. The number of North American oil rigs operating is now back to pre-pandemic levels.

The Kiwi dollar opened today marginally firmer from this time Saturday at 62.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are also marginally firmer at 90 AUc. Against the euro we are a tad softer at 61.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 71.2 and little-changed in a week.

The bitcoin price has moved sideways from this time Saturday, down a mere -0.8% to US$23,735. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/-2.2%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,

Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.

I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.

Today we lead with news that of the world's most significant economic blocks, only the US is still expanding strongly. Japan, China and the EU all seem to be falling away now.

Firstly in the US, the Chicago PMI, a widely-watched factory index in the US manufacturing heartland, surprised with a strong rise of an already strongly expanding result. A small fall was expected.

However the Dallas Fed factory survey did slip as expected. But new order levels held steady at a fast pace, and costs are still rising quickly.

Canadian producer prices were still rising at a very fast clip in December (+16% year-on-year) even if this is marginally lower than for November.

Both Japanese retail sales and Japanese industrial production data for December disappointed. Retail sales rose - just - from December but industrial production fell on that basis. Perhaps the recent 'green shoots' were premature.

In China, their private sector factory PMI contracted in January, a reading that was worse than the official factory PMI. Beijing might be focused on their Winter Olympic celebrations, and most people are on their Spring Festival break. But policy makers must be concerned about the very lackluster economic performance that is dragging on. 

Hong Kong retail sales rose +3.4% on a volume basis year-on-year in December but off quite a low base. They will be pleased they are getting some expansion now, but it is still -11% lower than pre-pandemic and -30% lower than before the democracy protests started.

In Germany, their inflation rate fell for the first time in seven months to 4.9% in January from a 1992-high of 5.3% in December.

And the steam is going out of the EU economy. Q4 results posted the slowest expansion since Q1 as Omicron took a rising toll. The German economy shrank (as we have reported earlier) offsetting expansions in France, Italy and Spain. For the full year, the EU GDP rise +5.2%, but only +0.3% in Q4 (or an annualised rate of about +1.2% in that final period).

All eyes are now on the Reserve Bank of Australia and its policy review which comes out at 4:30 pm (NZT) today. It has spent north of AU$300 bln on its money printing stimulus so far, and that program is expected to end today. In addition, there are also lots of other Australian economic data due today.

But we should highlight the NSW Government saying that their economy is expected to shrink -4% from the citizen's lockdown they have imposed on themselves. Politicians urged a free opening up to give the State a boost, but people recognised this as dangerous - and it is having a big economic impact.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.79% and up +1 bps. 

The price of gold starts today at US$1796/oz and up +US$7 from this time yesterday.

And oil prices start today little-changed from Saturday at just over US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl. 

The Kiwi dollar will open today at little firmer at 65.7 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are more than -½c lower at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 58.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today down at 70.6, unchanged but still a 14 month low.

The bitcoin price is up just +0.6% since this time yesterday and now at US$38,080. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.1%.

You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.

And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.

Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.

Kyberbrunssi herrasmieshakkereiden kanss
https://f-secure.videosync.fi/2021-09-24-kyberbrunssi

Katsaus Digi- ja Kybermaailmaan LIVE - Syyskuu 2021
https://youtu.be/bdwnbUoH9mM

Antin uusiliiketoiminta - NFT
https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/117968/kia-sedona-nft-sale-goes-belly-up-as-contractor-allegedly-runs-off-with-3-million
https://opensea.io/assets/0x2a9e4045185c8d778b85610ca96d79bd8ecdc720/1
https://cointelegraph.com/news/sushi-s-token-launchpad-miso-hacked-for-3m
https://protos.com/jay-pegs-auto-mart-crypto-larp-meets-nft-inside-2007-kia-sedona/

Revil-ransomwareen julkaistu purkutyökalu
https://www.bitdefender.com/blog/labs/bitdefender-offers-free-universal-decryptor-for-revil-sodinokibi-ransomware/

Microsoftilla on sittenkin ratkaisu siihen miten makromaltsu dokkareita voi avata turvallisesti
https://www.computerworld.com/article/3605034/microsoft-releases-application-guard-for-office-to-m365-customers.html
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/security/office-365-security/install-app-guard?view=o365-worldwide

 Microsoft Azuren OMI-haavoittuvuudet
https://www.theregister.com/2021/09/17/microsoft_manual_omigod_fixes/
https://www.wiz.io/blog/secret-agent-exposes-azure-customers-to-unauthorized-code-execution
https://www.kyberturvallisuuskeskus.fi/fi/haavoittuvuus_28
https://blog.malwarebytes.com/exploits-and-vulnerabilities/2021/09/patch-now-printnightmare-over-mshtml-fixed-a-new-horror-appears-omigod/

Iivari Heinäkuun kirjoitus Nvidia Geforce Now-striimauspalvelusta
https://ighor.medium.com/i-unlocked-nvidia-geforce-now-and-stumbled-upon-pirates-dc48a3f8ff7 

Apple päivittänyt nollapäiviänsä - päivitä iOS laitteesi viimeistään nyt!
https://www.vice.com/amp/en/article/3aq9q3/apple-patches-zero-click-imessage-hack-used-by-nso
https://citizenlab.ca/2021/09/forcedentry-nso-group-imessage-zero-click-exploit-captured-in-the-wild/

Lista tietomurtotutkinnan jälkitoimenpiteisiin - lista jakaa mielipiteitä Turvakäräjillä
https://www.pwndefend.com/2021/09/15/post-compromise-active-directory-checklist/