Bibi in Washington - with Amit Segal

enJuly 19, 2024

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

What are the main concerns of the Israeli public?

How is Netanyahu attempting to regain public support?

What failure occurred regarding the intelligence before the October attack?

How do Israel's political leaders view the security establishment?

What has been identified as the broader responsibility for the crisis?

What are the main concerns of the Israeli public?

How is Netanyahu attempting to regain public support?

What failure occurred regarding the intelligence before the October attack?

How do Israel's political leaders view the security establishment?

What has been identified as the broader responsibility for the crisis?

Podcast Summary

Israeli politics: Despite right-wing ideology, PM Netanyahu is weakened, focusing on Palestinian state vs anti-Palestinian state issues, while opposition grows over hostage ceasefire deal, and right-wing transformation ongoing
Despite the strong right-wing ideology in Israel, its flag bearer, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is weaker than ever. The Israeli public wants both right-wing policies and change. Netanyahu aims to regain support by focusing on Palestinian state versus anti-Palestinian state issues. Meanwhile, there's intense opposition to the current Israeli government, including from the right, regarding the hostage ceasefire deal. Israelis want to bring the hostages back home as soon as possible but are concerned about the cost and potential threats from Gaza. The government is interpreting growing support for the deal as a perception of Hamas as weakened but recognizes the need for improvement. The political right in Israel is undergoing transformation, and Amit Segu, as a chief political analyst, provides valuable insights into these complex issues.
Hostage deals and Hamas strategy: Hamas uses hostages as a strategic tool, leading to past deals strengthening their position, and ongoing military pressure aims to end the conflict but concerns arise over potential new lifelines for Hamas
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is complex and multifaceted, with both sides unwilling to back down completely. Hamas has used the issue of hostages as a strategic tool, turning a tactical problem into a larger conflict. The release of terrorists in past hostage deals, such as the Shalit deal, has only strengthened Hamas. Siwau, the Hamas leader, believes that military pressure on Hamas can lead to better deals and an end to the war. However, the recent deal being discussed raises concerns, particularly regarding the evacuation of the Philadelphia corridor between Gaza and Egypt, which could provide Hamas with a new lifeline. The deal's support is contingent on its ability to end the war and dismantle Hamas, with 64% of Israelis currently in favor. The unresolved issues include the Israeli presence in the Philadelphia corridor, the Netzareem corridor, and the number of hostages to be released. Military pressure on Hamas is ongoing, and the situation remains volatile.
Peaceful resolution, Rafah crossing: The Rafah crossing in Gaza, a significant source of funding for Hamas, could have potentially prevented conflict if Israel had vacated it during winter, but international and Israeli political obstacles hindered this action.
The opportunity for a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Israel and Hamas may have been missed earlier this year due to a decrease in military pressure on Hamas and international political obstacles. The tragedy, according to the speaker, is that Israel could have potentially vacated the Gaza Strip's Rafah crossing during the winter months, cutting off a significant source of funding for Hamas and potentially averting conflict. However, international pressure, including from the Biden administration, and Israeli political considerations hindered this action. Now, with a three-month political window for Netanyahu's government, there may be renewed opportunities for a deal, but it remains to be seen if Netanyahu will make concessions to appease his right-wing coalition. The speaker also emphasized the importance of the Rafah crossing as a major supply line for Hamas, making it a crucial military and economic asset.
Politics vs Security in Israel: Political leaders and security establishment in Israel clash over prioritizing politics versus security, resulting in prolonged conflict with Hamas, with each side blaming the other and acknowledging shared responsibility
The current tension between Israeli political leaders and the security establishment stems from differing beliefs about prioritizing politics versus security. Netanyahu, as a political leader, is accused by the security establishment of prioritizing politics over decisive military action, while the security establishment is viewed as weak and hesitant by Netanyahu. Each side holds the other responsible for the prolonged conflict with Hamas. However, both sides acknowledge that the responsibility for the situation lies with the broader community, including the media and the public, as well as the political and military leadership. Ultimately, the failure to address Hamas as an existential threat has led to the current crisis.
Israeli military intelligence failure: Despite multiple warnings, Israeli military and intelligence failed to provide adequate warning to PM Netanyahu during the October 2023 Israel-Gaza conflict, leading to strategic failure and potential deflection of blame through leaked information
During the October 2023 Israel-Gaza conflict, the Israeli military and intelligence failed to provide adequate warning to Prime Minister Netanyahu about the imminent attack, despite multiple warnings in the months leading up to it. This failure, combined with Netanyahu's distraction due to the judicial reform and perceived coup attempts, led to a strategic failure to prevent the attack. The military was in a minimally operative stance during the Jewish High Holidays, and the intelligence community did not effectively communicate the risks to the Prime Minister. The security establishment is now leaking information to prepare for an upcoming investigation, potentially to deflect blame.
Israeli political shifts: The Israeli political landscape is undergoing significant shifts following the recent conflict with Hamas, with calls for change and right-wing policies creating an opportunity for a new center-right party, but potential risks and debates over a two-state solution remain.
The Israeli political landscape is undergoing significant shifts following the recent conflict with Hamas. Netanyahu's leadership is under scrutiny, with a large percentage of the public wanting him to resign. However, his right-wing ideology remains strong, as evidenced by the Knesset's vote against a Palestinian state. This creates an opportunity for a new center-right-wing party that can offer both change and right-wing policies. The downside of this vision is the potential demographic and security risks associated with maintaining Israeli control in the West Bank. Netanyahu's critics argue that he has failed to connect the dots and prevent conflicts, but his supporters maintain that his hardline stance on security is necessary for Israel's survival. The debate over a two-state solution is no longer the dominant discourse in Israeli politics, and the implications for Israeli policy towards the Palestinians are yet to be seen.
Israeli-Palestinian conflict complexities: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is intricate, with Hamas's presence in Gaza making it difficult for a Palestinian state, and the Palestinian Authority's support of terrorism further complicating the issue. Israelis and Palestinians have disparate rights and voting privileges, and international advocacy for a Palestinian state must consider these complexities and Palestinian choices.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is complex and the involvement of various political entities, such as Hamas in Gaza, complicates the situation further. Netanyahu, according to the discussion, did not support Hamas but acknowledged their presence in Gaza as it prevented a unified Palestinian voice, making it difficult for the international community to argue for a Palestinian state. Hamas took control of Gaza through violent means, and Israel's withdrawal from Gaza convinced Palestinians that terror works against Israel. The lack of Palestinian elections and the terrorist support from the Palestinian Authority further complicates the issue. Israelis and Palestinians have different rights and voting privileges, with Israelis having the ability to vote for a real government in an independent sovereign state, while Palestinians do not. The international community must acknowledge the complexities and responsibilities of the choices made by the Palestinians, such as electing Hamas, before fully advocating for a Palestinian state.
Israel's diplomacy and politics: Prime Minister Netanyahu aims to strengthen Israel's position on the world stage by addressing Congress, seek support for military operations, and potentially attack Iran's nuclear facilities with US involvement. Domestic elections in Israel are upcoming, with Gantz facing challenges due to his centrist stance.
Prime Minister Netanyahu's upcoming address before Congress is an opportunity for him to strengthen Israel's position on the world stage and make the Israeli case bipartisan in the US. He aims to finish unfinished business in Gaza, seek support for military operations in Lebanon, and potentially attack Iran's nuclear facilities with US involvement. Despite potential protests or chaos, Netanyahu believes the speech will have a greater impact on both Israelis and Americans. In Israel, elections are expected to occur between February 2025 and February 2026, with Benny Gantz being a prominent figure but facing challenges due to his centrist stance. Gantz's departure from the war cabinet was a difficult decision, but essential to maintain his voter base and political survival. Overall, Netanyahu's address to Congress represents a crucial moment for Israel's diplomacy and domestic politics.
Israeli political landscape: Bennett faces challenges uniting voter base, avoiding 'political killing zone' while Galant may have peaked due to anti-Netanyahu stance, political landscape remains uncertain
Israeli politics continues to be complex and influenced by political considerations, even within war cabinets. Bennett, currently leading in polls, faces challenges in uniting his voter base and avoiding the "political killing zone" by joining forces with another center-right party. Galant, a trusted politician, may have reached the peak of his career due to his anti-Netanyahu stance, and may not be a viable candidate for prime minister from the center-left or right-wing parties. The ongoing disagreement between Bennett and Lieberman about the prime minister candidacy is a significant obstacle for both. Galant, despite his popularity, may not have a long-term political future due to his opposition to Netanyahu. The Israeli political landscape remains fluid and uncertain as key players navigate their paths towards power.

Recent Episodes from Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

The execution of six hostages - with Haviv Rettig Gur & Wendy Singer

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/39yxftr6 *** Over the past 24 hours we learned the devastating news about Hamas’s slaughtering of 6 hostages. The families of two of these hostages – Hersh Goldberg-Polin and Carmel Gat had been guests on this podcast over the past few months. The news of these executions followed news in Israel last Thursday of a heated debate within the security cabinet over a clause that the prime minister had introduced – to be voted on – into the negotiations over any final deal. Some critics are arguing that the introduction of that clause was part of a pattern that doomed the negotiations. Last night, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest – among other things – these moves by Israel’s Government. Others inside Israel are arguing that the principles that the Prime Minister is establishing in these negotiations are necessary conditions for Israel to defeat Hamas and prevent another October 7th-like war being launched (at least from Gaza). This is the debate happening inside Israel right now. To better understand each of these positions we had a conversation on Sunday morning with Haviv Rettig Gur from the Time of Israel from Jersuaelm. But before we listen to the conversation with Haviv, we want to play for you a conversation I had late at night Israel time on Sunday night, with Wendy Singer, a Jersusalemite who is part of the Goldberg-Polins' community in Baka, their neighborhood in Jerusalem. In the days ahead, we’ll hear from others connected to those six hostages murdered. Wendy Singer is an advisor to several Israeli high-tech start-ups, including Re-Milk — https://www.remilk.com/ Wendy was the executive director of Start-Up Nation Central since its founding in 2013 — https://startupnationcentral.org/ Previously, she was the director of AIPAC’s Israel office for 16 years and served in AIPAC’s Washington office before immigrating to Israel in 1994. Earlier in her career, Wendy was a foreign policy advisor in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. Haviv Rettig Gur is the political analyst at The Times of Israel. He was a long time reporter for the Times of Israel. Haviv was also a combat medic in the IDF where he served in the reserves.

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enSeptember 02, 2024

Rahm Emanuel

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/yc4a9uvh *** Our interests in the Indo-Pacific, Russia-Ukraine, and the Middle East are all interconnected. A regional war in one, could easily trip into a regional war in another — and in some cases actors in one region are already being supported by regional actors from another. Just follow the moves of Beijing, Moscow and Tehran. Rahm Emanuel has been an energetic diplomat in one of those regions — the Indo-Pacific. He is the U.S. ambassador to Japan. In addition to being a diplomatic and policy practitioner, he has also been an often astute — and sometimes provocative — analyst of the Chinese Government and its moves. Rahm also has deep roots in American Jewish life and with Israel. He has a lot to say about the lessons he took away from serving in the Clinton administration, where he was involved in President Clinton’s efforts at a two-state solution during the Oslo and Camp David processes. Rahm also served 4 terms in Congress, where he was a member of the House Democratic Leadership. He was President Obama’s chief of staff for the first two years of the Obama administration, before returning to Chicago to run for mayor, where he served for two terms. To read Rahm’s piece mentioned in the episode: https://japan-forward.com/lessons-from-israel-timely-for-japan/ Follow Rahm on X: https://x.com/USAmbJapan Register for Call me Back Live at the Streicker Center: https://streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 30, 2024

ISRAEL PREEMPTIVELY STRIKES HEZBOLLAH – with Nadav Eyal & Ronen Bergman

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/bdd5bvp8 *** Early this morning, after detecting preparations by Hezbollah to launch a large-scale attack, Israel launched a powerful preemptive strike on southern Lebanon. Hours after these events took place, I was joined by Nadav Eyal and Ronen Bergman to make sense of what has taken place, and to discuss possible scenarios moving forward. Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine and Senior Correspondent for Military and Intelligence Affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth, an Israeli daily. Ronen recently won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on this war and the pre-war intelligence failures. Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediot. He has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 25, 2024

A Deal on the Verge of Collapse – with Nadav Eyal

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/p5dfbxxw *** As Israelis continue to brace for a kinetic strike from Iran, or Hezbollah, or both, this long-anticipated attack may have been put on hold by Tehran while Israel and Hamas were negotiating the last details of a hostage and temporary ceasefire deal. Now, as we learn today from our guest Nadav Eyal, that deal appears to be slipping away. Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediot. He has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news. Register for Call me Back Live at the Streicker Center in New York: https://streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 23, 2024

A new (and bolder) approach to Iran? – with Mark Dubowitz

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/bdze4khv *** Mark Dubowitz reports from Tel Aviv after over a month in Israel discussing Israel’s emerging (and bolder) approach to Iran. Mark is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD). In his role, he has advised the Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden administrations and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, and he has testified more than twenty times before the U.S. Congress and foreign legislatures. A former venture capitalist and technology executive, Mark holds a master’s degree in international public policy from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. To read Mark’s recent piece in the Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/israels-approach-to-iran-may-be-getting-bolder-f4c2c5f2?st=26ve823zvaeilzf&reflink=article_copyURL_share FDD’s Iranian Protest Tracker Map: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/01/27/mapping-the-protests-in-iran-2/ Register for Call me Back Live at the Streicker Center in New York: https://streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 19, 2024

Holding Pattern(s) – with Jonathan Schanzer

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/4wzexubr *** Israelis are stuck in a tense holding pattern, each day waiting for a response from Iran, or Hezbollah, or both - an attack that was expected to occur last week, then later forecasted to occur over Tisha B’Av. And yet, each day… nothing. What is going on — in Tehran? In Jerusalem? And in Washington D.C.? At the same time, there is a similar pattern in the hostage negotiations. Today, senior officials from Israel, the U.S., Qatar and Egypt met in Doha to resume negotiations for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal - talks, as we are learning, that will continue into tomorrow. Israel seems to be on the brink of major developments - and yet, Israelis are left questioning: when will they occur? And against that backdrop: is Israel on offense, or is Israel on defense? To help us assess all of this from a broader strategic perspective, our guest is Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, who is senior vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Jon previously worked as a terrorism finance analyst at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, where he played an integral role in the designation of numerous terrorist financiers. Jon's latest book is "Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War". His other books include: "State of Failure: Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, and the Unmaking of the Palestinian State", and "Hamas vs. Fatah: The Struggle for Palestine". Jonathan has studied Middle East history in four countries. He earned his PhD from King’s College London, where he wrote his dissertation on the U.S. Congress and its efforts to combat terrorism in the 20th century. He speaks Arabic and Hebrew. To watch the FDD Morning Brief, hosted by Jon: https://www.fdd.org/fddmorningbrief/ Register for Call me Back Live at the Streicker Center in New York: https://streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 16, 2024

Hostage Deal? Iran Attack? And Tisha B’Av - with Haviv Rettig Gur & Nadav Eyal

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/2awmrwwr *** Against the backdrop of a possible Iran/Hezbollah attack, as well as international criticism of an IDF operation in Gaza City, there have been new developments in the hostage negotiations. This past Thursday, a multi-party statement was issued by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar, declaring that the framework of a hostage deal was nearly complete, and urging Israel and Hamas to finalize the deal without further delay. Soon after, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office issued a statement that Israel would send its team to the now scheduled August 15th negotiations. Hamas had indicated its intention to participate as well. Now, suddenly, Hamas is reversing its decision. Although, at least according to some sources, this reversal may be last minute posturing by Hamas. Either way, the sudden acceleration of the process does make this dynamic seem different from previous rounds. To discuss all of these issues, we are joined by Call me Back regulars: -Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediot. Eyal has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news. -Haviv Rettig Gur has been a regular presence on this podcast since October 8. He is a senior political analyst for the Times of Israel, and has been an important interpreter for Western audiences of how to understand this conflict in broader historical terms. To register for Call me Back Live featuring Amir Tibon at the Streicker Center: https://streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor To visit our website: https://arkmedia.org/

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 12, 2024

What's the Iran strategy? - with Nadav Eyal and Matt Levitt

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/56nzhy97 *** HOUSEKEEPING NOTE: I’m pleased to announce a major live recording of Call Me Back in New York City on September 24th. The event will be held at the Streicker Center, co-sponsored by UJA Federation of NY, and my guest will be Amir Tibon on the official launch date of his book The Gates of Gaza: A Story of Betrayal, Survival, and Hope in Israel's Borderlands. In his new book, Amir tells the gripping story of the Tibon family’s ordeal at Kibbutz Nahal Oz on October 7 and the heroic rescue by Amir’s father, retired General Noam Tibon. Woven throughout the book is Amir’s own expertise as a longtime journalist in Israel and in Washington, the history of Kibbutz Nahal Oz, and the conflict between Israel and Gaza. The story has previously been featured on 60 Minutes and it is also being developed in a feature film by Avi Issacharoff and Lior Raz. We are excited to bring this program – with our partners at The Streicker Center and UJA Federation of NY – to the Call Me Back audience. To register, please go to streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor TODAY’S EPISODE: Tensions have been high in Israel over the past week, as Israelis brace for a response from Iran and Hezbollah, following last week’s assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and Fuad Shukr in Lebanon. This attack was anticipated to have already taken place, and may happen at any moment. To help us understand the extent to which Israel and the U.S. have prepared for this new phase, we are joined by Nadav Eyal and Matt Levitt. Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediot. He has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news. Dr. Matthew Levitt is the director of the Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He served as deputy assistant secretary for intelligence and analysis at the U.S. Department of the Treasury. During his tenure at Treasury, he played a central role in efforts to protect the U.S. financial system from abuse and to deny terrorists, weapons proliferators, and other rogue actors the ability to finance threats to U.S. national security. He later served as a counterterrorism advisor to the special envoy for Middle East regional security. Previously, Matt was a counterterrorism intelligence analyst at the FBI, where he provided tactical and strategic analytical support for counterterrorism operations, focusing on fundraising and logistical support networks for Middle Eastern terrorist groups. He is the author of several books and monographs, including Hamas: Politics, Charity and Terrorism in the Service of Jihad (Yale University Press, 2006), and Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon's Party of God (Georgetown University Press, 2013). He is the host of the podcast series, Breaking Hezbollah's Golden Rule. Matt Levitt’s Books: Hezbollah: The Global Footprint of Lebanon’s Party of God - https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/hezbollah-matthew-levitt/1114960198?ean=9781626162013 Negotiating Under Fire: Preserving Peace Talks in the Face of Terror Attacks - https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/negotiating-under-fire-matthew-levitt/1100301395?ean=9780742551626

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 09, 2024

Israelis anticipate the response — with Haviv Rettig Gur

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/2twexkc9 *** Is the region ready for an Israel-Iran war? Is the U.S. ready? What is the state of readiness of the IDF for such a war? Is Israeli society ready for such a war? Could such a war be avoided? What would de-escalation look like? Most Israelis we have spoken to over the past few days have struck a balance between (tensely) trying to anticipate Iran’s next move and expressing confidence in Israel’s capacity for this new phase. One of those Israelis joins us for this episode. Haviv Rettig Gur of the the Times of Israel returns to the podcast.

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enAugust 05, 2024

HANIYEH DEAD - with Ronen Bergman & Nadav Eyal

*** Share episode on X: https://tinyurl.com/3x9wjkv9 *** Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, is dead. He was killed in Tehran yesterday, during a visit for the inauguration of Iran’s new president. To help us understand this major development, I am joined by Ronen Bergman and Nadav Eyal for a special emergency episode. Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine and Senior Correspondent for Military and Intelligence Affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth, an Israeli daily. Ronen recently won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on this war and the pre-war intelligence failures. Nadav Eyal is a columnist for Yediot. He has been covering Middle-Eastern and international politics for the last two decades for Israeli radio, print and television news.

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

enJuly 31, 2024

Ask this episode Anything

What are the main concerns of the Israeli public?

How is Netanyahu attempting to regain public support?

What failure occurred regarding the intelligence before the October attack?

How do Israel's political leaders view the security establishment?

What has been identified as the broader responsibility for the crisis?