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    Earnings, Eggnog, and Year-End Financial Advice

    enDecember 20, 2019

    Podcast Summary

    • Effective communication skills and Nike's strong quarterNike had a strong quarter, but shares sold off due to widened gross margins and increased inventory levels. However, these issues may not be concerning as Nike invests in its direct-to-consumer business and builds a strong global market.

      Effective communication skills are essential in business and life, and the Think Fast, Talk Smart podcast can help individuals hone these skills. Nike had a strong quarter with higher-than-expected profits and revenue, and the Jordan brand achieved its first billion-dollar quarter. Despite these positive results, Nike's shares sold off, with potential reasons being widened gross margins and increased inventory levels. However, these issues may not be cause for concern, as Nike is investing in its direct-to-consumer business and building a strong global market. Overall, companies that can control the customer experience from beginning to end, such as Nike and Lululemon, are thriving in the new business model.

    • New CEO for Nike and IAC's acquisition of Care.comNike's marketing spend increases with new CEO, IAC acquires Care.com for growth, Nike and IAC have strong track records, and industry changes make it challenging to view FedEx as a bellwether.

      Nike's marketing spend is expected to increase in the coming year with a new CEO, John Donahoe, who was previously of eBay, and the business remains strong despite being priced at 32 times. IAC, a holding company, recently acquired Care.com for $15 a share, and they aim to grow and nurture the business before setting it free. IAC has a good track record in this regard, as seen with the upcoming spin-out of Match.com. However, the integration of TNT Express acquisition and the loss of Amazon as a customer have caused weak results for FedEx, leading to a profit forecast cut for the second time and several other factors contributing to the weak quarter. The industry and business dynamics are changing, making it difficult to view FedEx as a bellwether. Despite these challenges, both Nike and IAC have solid track records and are expected to continue growing their businesses.

    • Amazon's Impact on Retail and Shipping IndustriesAmazon's dominance in retail and shipping is disrupting traditional players like FedEx and Bed Bath and Beyond, forcing them to adapt or risk becoming obsolete. New CEO Mark Tritton is implementing changes at Bed Bath and Beyond to turn around its struggling business, while the market opportunity in home goods remains significant.

      The retail and shipping industries are facing significant disruption from companies like Amazon, which is changing the game by controlling the customer experience and building its own competitive shipping service. This puts traditional players like FedEx and Bed Bath and Beyond in a tough spot, requiring them to adapt or risk becoming obsolete. In the case of FedEx, its long-term viability is being questioned due to Amazon's growing dominance and anticompetitive practices. As for Bed Bath and Beyond, a new CEO, Mark Tritton, is implementing bold solutions to turn the struggling retailer around. Despite some challenges, including debt and underperforming stores, the market opportunity in home furnishings and goods is significant, and Tritton's success at Target bodes well for Bed Bath and Beyond's future. The stock price reflects the optimism surrounding Tritton's leadership, with a 70% increase since his appointment.

    • BlackBerry's shift from mobile phones to security softwareBlackBerry's acquisition of Cylance boosted revenue, but their IoT business declined. General Mills' pet food division, particularly Blue Buffalo, drove higher profits.

      BlackBerry is no longer just a mobile phone company. It has transformed into a security software and services business, with a focus on data security and the Internet of Things. The acquisition of Cylance significantly contributed to this quarter's revenue growth, but their Internet of Things business saw a decline. General Mills, on the other hand, had higher-than-expected profits, driven primarily by their pet food division, specifically the Blue Buffalo brand. Despite some concerns about share repurchases and a flat stock price, the success of Blue Buffalo has given the company some breathing room and a chance to explore new growth opportunities, such as healthier snacks.

    • General Mills and Winnebago's Growth StrategiesGeneral Mills could benefit from acquisitions to boost growth, while Winnebago's strong performance highlights the success of strategic growth through acquisitions.

      General Mills, despite having a flat 5-year chart, could see profitability growth in the next 5 years, especially in their pet food division, Blue Buffalo. However, organic growth might not be enough, and they may need to make another acquisition to expand. On the other hand, Winnebago had a strong Q1 report, with revenue up 19% and operating cash flow up 46%, thanks to strong sales in their towable segment. Despite the RV industry's rough patch in 2018, Winnebago's shares have seen a significant increase this year. While General Mills might need to consider acquisitions, Winnebago's strong performance shows that strategic growth through acquisitions can pay off. Additionally, the new tax law has made it easier for fewer people to itemize, making flexible spending accounts more important to use before the end of the year.

    • Maximizing Charitable Giving at Year-EndDonating appreciated stock and using donor-advised funds can provide tax benefits for year-end charitable giving. Retirement age is now 70, consider how to replace non-monetary aspects of work to avoid depression and social isolation.

      Year-end is an optimal time for charitable giving, especially for those itemizing deductions or close to the limit. Donating appreciated stock directly to charities can provide significant tax benefits, and donor-advised funds offer a way to bunch multiple years' worth of contributions together in one year, allowing you to direct the funds to charities of your choice. Additionally, retirement age is increasingly becoming 70 instead of 65 due to the financial, emotional, and physical challenges of retirement. It's essential to consider how to replace the non-monetary aspects of work when retiring, as retirees face a higher risk of depression and social isolation.

    • Preparing for Lower Market Returns and College ExpensesInvestors should aim for 5-6% returns in retirement, consider a conservative portfolio, and explore various methods for covering college expenses, including in-state schools and multiple savings strategies.

      Investors should prepare for lower market returns in retirement and consider a more conservative portfolio with expected returns of 5-6%, as the historic 10% annual return may not be sustainable. The market's unexpected 30% growth in 2019 and the subsequent drop in interest rates led to a strong year for bonds, making it a good time for investors overall. For those considering college expenses, having a multi-pronged approach, including 529 savings plans, employee stock, inheritances, and cash flow, can help cover costs. Additionally, encouraging children to attend in-state colleges can significantly reduce expenses. As for personal goals, seeking external accountability, such as putting money on the line, can help achieve New Year's resolutions.

    • The power of community in personal growthSurround yourself with loved ones and like-minded individuals to boost physical and financial well-being

      Accountability and encouragement from loved ones and like-minded individuals can significantly boost personal growth in both physical and financial aspects. The speaker shares how joining a gym with his wife and having a wellness-focused community at work have positively influenced his fitness journey. Additionally, he emphasizes the importance of surrounding oneself with individuals who prioritize well-being and financial responsibility. During the discussion, they also shared their opinions on various holiday-themed objects, with some expressing their dislike for eggnog. However, the overall message remains that having a supportive network can lead to positive changes in one's life.

    • Discussing Holiday Traditions in Die Hard and Real LifeThe group shared diverse opinions on holiday traditions in Die Hard and their own lives, including mistletoe, sweet potato latkes, and staying up on New Year's Eve.

      While some people consider Die Hard a Christmas movie due to its holiday setting, others argue it's not integral to the story and therefore not a Christmas film. The group also discussed their opinions on sweet potato latkes, mistletoe, and staying up until midnight on New Year's Eve. Ron and Jason were sellers for mistletoe, while Jason and Steve were buyers for latkes and staying up with their kids on New Year's Eve, respectively. Ron expressed his discomfort with the tradition of kissing under mistletoe, while Steve was unfamiliar with it. The group also acknowledged the age-dependent nature of staying up until midnight on New Year's Eve. Overall, the discussion showcased a range of opinions and perspectives on these holiday-related topics.

    • Investment opportunities in digital infrastructure and automotive technologyAmerican Tower (AMT) is a leading REIT in digital infrastructure, offering strong unit economics and competitive advantages. Serence (CRNC) builds cognitive assistance solutions for automotive industry, tapping into the growing AR/AI market.

      American Tower (AMT), a real estate investment trust and one of the largest owners of multi-tenant communications towers, is a strong investment opportunity due to its critical role in the country's digital infrastructure, strong unit economics, competitive advantages, and the upcoming 5G revolution. Additionally, small cap company Serence (CRNC), which builds automotive cognitive assistance solutions, is an intriguing investment in the growing market of augmented reality and artificial intelligence for the automobile industry. Despite the excitement around self-driving cars and the prediction of a decade-long wait for fully automated vehicles, no specific stock was mentioned for this trend. Overall, these companies represent solid investments in the digital infrastructure and automotive technology sectors.

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    🎙️ Enregistrement & Production : Nicolas Billières .

    🎵 Sound Design : Like Fire 

    🎨 Logo From Scratch : Ludovic Prigent