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    Exclusive: Polling on IndyRef and party support

    enMay 09, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Companies prioritize customer needs and experiences, LinkedIn's effectiveness for hiring, and social missions in businessCompanies focus on ease of use, new options, durability, and fast shipping for customers. LinkedIn connects businesses with a large, professional user base. Social missions can enhance business success and customer loyalty.

      Companies like Burrows Furniture prioritize customer needs and experiences, from easy assembly and new color options to durable modular seating and fast free shipping. Meanwhile, LinkedIn is an effective tool for hiring professionals, reaching a large user base that often overlooks other job sites. Bombas provides comfortable clothing with a social mission, donating an item for every purchase to those in need. In the realm of politics, the ongoing debate on gender recognition reform has led to heated discussions and the need for safe spaces, with some individuals expressing concern over the intimidation preventing open dialogue. Jennifer's email highlights the importance of addressing these issues and normalizing discussions to create a more inclusive environment. Both Andy and Geoff acknowledge the complexity of the issue and the importance of considering various perspectives.

    • Scottish politics lacks nuance, making middle ground toughThe Scottish government's bill and freedom of speech debate highlights the need for compromise and open-minded discussion amidst complex issues and valid concerns on both sides.

      Nuance is a rare commodity in Scottish politics, making it difficult for individuals to take a middle ground position on contentious issues without facing backlash from both sides. The current debate surrounding the Scottish government's bill and freedom of speech is a prime example. While some believe that certain actions, such as Joanna Cherry's pursuit of legal action, are necessary to protect individual rights, others argue that it hinders productive dialogue. The issue is complex, with valid concerns on both sides. Regardless of the outcome of the legal action, compromise will be essential for any advancement on the policy. It's important to remember that the primary focus of the current debate is on freedom of speech, rather than the bill itself. The potential precedent-setting nature of the legal action adds another layer of complexity to the situation, making it a topic that requires careful consideration and open-minded discussion.

    • SNP's Support Ebbing Away in Scottish Parliament ElectionsThe Scottish Parliament elections may see a shift in power as the SNP's support decreases, potentially benefiting the Scottish Labour Party

      The Scottish Parliament may need to address the financial issues within the SNP party, which could potentially lead to compromise and bring various groups together. The Servation Poll, exclusively shared with Hollywood Sources, indicates that the SNP's support has been ebbing away since the start of the year, with the Scottish Parliament elections approaching. The poll also reveals that the Scottish Parliament currently holds 39% of the votes in the Holyrood constituency, a decrease from the last observation poll in April. The SNP had initially planned to make the upcoming general election a de facto referendum, but they are not close to the 50% mark that was their test for this strategy. The polling data suggests that things could get worse for the SNP before they get better, which could potentially benefit the Scottish Labour Party. The experts on the podcast, including Fergus Much from True North and Sir John Curtis from Strathclyde University, will further discuss the implications of these polling findings for Scottish political parties.

    • Scottish independence support steady despite SNP challengesDespite SNP setbacks, 48% of Scots support Scottish independence, leaving room for SNP to regain lost ground. New party Alba secures 3% of votes.

      The Scottish political landscape is undergoing significant shifts, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Scottish Greens holding steady in their support for Scottish independence, despite the SNP's recent challenges. The SNP, which has traditionally led the independence movement, has seen a gradual ebbing away of its vote in recent months. However, the latent support for independence remains strong at 48%, leaving room for the SNP to potentially regain lost ground if they can effectively mobilize this pro-independence vote. Another notable development is the emergence of Alba, a new political party, which has managed to secure 3% of the regional list votes in the latest polling. It remains to be seen how Alba will impact the political landscape moving forward. Overall, the numbers suggest that while the SNP's recent challenges are a concern, the end goal of Scottish independence remains a popular one among the Scottish population.

    • SNP faces challenges despite strong support for Scottish independenceSNP's internal issues are hindering its progress towards a referendum and majority support for Scottish independence, not waning support itself

      Despite the negative publicity surrounding the Scottish National Party (SNP) in recent months, including the arrest of a party member and leadership contest, support for Scottish independence remains strong. However, the SNP itself is facing significant difficulties in maintaining popularity as an institution. Professor John Curtis of the University of Strathclyde points out that while support for Scottish independence hasn't changed, the SNP's own standing has suffered. SNP voters are not particularly fond of their new leader, Humza Yousuf, and there's a disconnect between the views of the party's elected politicians and its membership. The SNP must focus on improving its popularity before it can make progress towards its ultimate goal of securing a referendum and a majority above the 50% mark. The party's challenges are not due to waning support for Scottish independence, but rather to its own internal issues.

    • SNP faces challenge in maintaining Scottish independence supportThe SNP is facing a challenge in maintaining support for Scottish independence as some voters shift towards Labour, indicating Labour might be regaining votes of soft nationalists. A viable centrist, pro-independence, pro-growth, pro-business party could emerge, and unionist side remains fragmented.

      The Scottish National Party (SNP) is facing a challenge in maintaining support for Scottish independence as some voters shift towards Labour. This trend is particularly noteworthy because it suggests that Labour might be regaining the votes of soft nationalists who are not yet fully committed to unionism. This development could be significant for Anas Sarwar, the Labour leader in Scotland, as it may indicate that he is starting to win back some voters who had previously leaned towards independence. Another intriguing aspect of this trend is the question of whether the Scottish National Party can actually deliver independence, given that a significant portion of the population that voted against independence in the past might be open to the idea but are not yet convinced by the economic case presented by the SNP or the Greens. This opens up the possibility of a centrist, pro-independence, pro-growth, pro-business party emerging as a viable addition to the independence movement. Furthermore, while the nationalist movement has historically had a strong political base, the unionist side remains fragmented, which raises doubts about their ability to mount an effective campaign in the event of a referendum. The dominance of the SNP's influence on the pro-independence vote is a key strength that has helped them in the past, and it remains to be seen how they will navigate this new political landscape.

    • SNP's electoral success in Scotland due to favorable electoral systemThe SNP's electoral success in Scotland is largely due to the electoral system favoring nationalist unity over unionist fragmentation. However, the debate on Scottish independence in a post-Brexit world is more complex, and the SNP's failure to address economics has weakened their position.

      The SNP's electoral success in Scotland, particularly in the Scottish Parliament and Westminster, is largely due to the electoral system favoring the unity of the nationalist vote over the fragmentation of the unionist votes. However, the debate about Scottish independence in a post-Brexit world is more complex than before, as the choice is no longer just about being inside or outside the UK, but also about being inside or outside the European Union. The SNP's failure to initiate a debate on the economics of independence in this new context has hindered their ability to make a compelling case to the electorate. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and internal political arguments have further weakened their position. Ultimately, the next general election will determine whether the SNP has leverage, but the rise of Labour and the Conservatives' decline in UK-wide polls have reduced their chances. The unionist parties have shown little interest in engaging in the independence debate, leaving it to the SNP to make a persuasive case to the electorate.

    • Making a Compelling Intellectual Case for Scottish IndependenceSNP must intellectually justify Scottish independence in post-Brexit era, engage Unionists in debate, and focus on economic arguments to win over voters

      The Scottish National Party (SNP) needs to make a compelling intellectual case for Scottish independence in the post-Brexit environment before a referendum can be a viable option. The Unionists, currently winning the public opinion battle, will be forced to engage in the debate if the support for independence consistently rises above 50%. The SNP's failure to make a strong economic case since 2014 and the recent local election results in England make the path to a referendum more challenging. However, Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, might be able to win over soft nationalists by offering a more solid devolution proposal. Despite Labour's recent polling success, their lack of advancement in the polls raises questions about their ability to capitalize on their momentum. The local election results in England, which confirmed Labour's stronger position south of the border, are difficult to compare directly with Scottish elections due to the different electoral systems. Ultimately, the SNP must focus on winning the intellectual debate and getting the Unionists engaged before worrying about the process of holding a referendum.

    • The role of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at Westminster after the UK general electionThe SNP's influence at Westminster could be significant if they can form a coalition or coalition-like relationship with Labour, but this depends on the Liberal Democrats' performance in the election.

      The outcome of the next UK general election and the role of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at Westminster are still uncertain. Labour might have come close to winning the last election, but whether they will secure an overall majority is still in question. The SNP's influence at Westminster could be significant if they can form a coalition or coalition-like relationship with the Labour Party. However, this depends on the performance of the Liberal Democrats. In the past, the SNP's primary goal at Westminster elections was simply to achieve relevance. In 2010, they had only six MPs. Now, SNP leader Stephen Flynn is trying to position his party as a force to be reckoned with and strike a hard bargain with Labour for their support. While some see risks in this strategy, others sympathize with Flynn's goal of making the SNP relevant to Scottish voters. Ultimately, the election outcome and the role of the SNP at Westminster will depend on a complex interplay of political dynamics and voter sentiment.

    • SNP's Role in Post-Election ScenarioDespite the SNP's influence being expected to be minimal in the next UK general election, Labour may consider negotiating with them over independence issues if they can't form a government with the Liberal Democrats. SNP leader Stephen Flynn should focus on defining his policy priorities and being relevant in the post-election scenario.

      The influence of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at Westminster after the next general election is expected to be minimal, even if Labour needs help to form a government. According to the discussion, Labour is expected to fall short of a majority, and Keir Starmer is more likely to turn to the Liberal Democrats for support. If Labour still can't form a government, they may face a choice between negotiating with the Liberal Democrats for proportional representation or with the SNP over independence issues. The pressure would come when a minority Labour administration is in trouble and cannot contemplate going to the country again. It's important to remember the historical context of the October 1974 parliament, where the Conservatives were not willing to bring down the government until they were confident of winning a general election. The consequences of losing a vote in Westminster are significant, and a Labour loss could lead to a toxic and hostile environment, making it difficult for them to regain public support. Stephen Flynn, the SNP Westminster leader, needs to focus on defining his policy priorities and indicating how he can be relevant in advance of the general election. The post-election strategy can be determined based on the numbers and moments where the SNP can effectively pounce.

    • Conservative Party facing challenges in latest poll resultsThe latest poll indicates a challenging situation for the Conservative Party, with low approval ratings and significant support loss. Opponents like the SNP and Labour may capitalize on their weaknesses.

      The latest poll results indicate a challenging situation for the Conservative Party, as they appear to have lost significant support and are now mainly relying on their core vote. The SNP and Labour parties could see this poll as neutral or slightly favorable, but the real concern lies with the Tories, who are facing internal strife and low approval ratings among key demographics like women and young voters. The chasm between the popularity of Anas Sarwar and Humza Yousaf as Holyrood leaders could also impact the outcome of future elections. Overall, the poll suggests that the Conservative Party may struggle to exert significant influence in the political landscape, and their opponents may have an opportunity to capitalize on their weaknesses.

    • Conservative Party's Poor Performance in ScotlandLabour Party gains ground, SNP holds significant presence, Tories stagnant, Liberal Democrats doing well, SMP faces skepticism, Westminster election may mask true impact, tactical voting a factor, Keir Starmer's Labour Party to define stance and policies

      The latest polling data indicates a poor performance for the Conservative Party in Scotland, with the Labour Party and SNP benefiting the most. The Tories' approval ratings remain stagnant or have even decreased, making them the only major party not gaining ground from the current political climate. The Labour Party, on the other hand, is looking strong as a second place contender, while the SNP faces a trend against them but still holds a significant presence. The Liberal Democrats are doing well, and the SMP is facing skepticism from a significant portion of their supporters regarding the green arrangement. The upcoming Westminster election, using the first-past-the-post system, could mask the true impact of the poll results, as the Tories are expected to hold onto their seats despite low vote shares. The potential for tactical voting in certain regions might add an interesting dynamic to the election outcomes. The attention is now on Keir Starmer and the Labour Party to define their stance and policies as they appear to be winning.

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