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    Market Volatility and How Successful People See the World

    enMarch 06, 2020

    Podcast Summary

    • Learn Effective Communication Skills from Experts on Think Fast, Talk Smart PodcastThe Think Fast, Talk Smart podcast offers valuable insights from experts on improving communication skills, including making small talk, managing speaking anxiety, and being persuasive. Meanwhile, market volatility doesn't always signal market weakness, as some investors may view it as a buying opportunity.

      Effective communication skills are essential in business and life, and the Think Fast, Talk Smart podcast can help individuals hone these skills. The podcast, which has received nearly 43 million downloads and is the number one career podcast in over 95 countries, features experts discussing tips on making small talk, managing speaking anxiety, being persuasive, and more. Meanwhile, the stock market has been volatile, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 experiencing fluctuations this week. The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points spooked the markets initially but rebounded due to Super Tuesday election results. The uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus and its impact on both investors and citizens has contributed to the market volatility. Despite the perceived weakness in the market, volatility doesn't always indicate weakness, as some investors may see it as an opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices.

    • Focus on company fundamentals, not just market volatilityIn uncertain economic times, it's crucial to consider long-term industry and company impact before investing, even if stocks are undervalued.

      Even in uncertain economic times, it's important to focus on the fundamentals of companies and not just the volatility of the stock market. While there may be opportunities to buy stocks at discounted prices, it's crucial to consider the long-term impact of the economic situation on specific industries and companies. For instance, the travel industry, particularly cruise lines, may still be risky investments despite their low valuations due to the ongoing uncertainty and potential for prolonged economic downturn. It's essential to exercise caution and patience when making investment decisions. Additionally, the rapid market correction serves as a reminder that the stock market can be unpredictable, and it's important to stay informed and adaptable.

    • Investing in retail and casual dining industries amidst coronavirus challengesWhile some retail and dining companies struggle, Costco reports strong earnings and increased demand. Okta's revenue growth is another positive sign. Stay informed before investing.

      While the retail and casual dining industries are experiencing significant challenges due to the economic impact of the coronavirus, there are opportunities for investment in the future. However, it may not be the right time to buy in yet as both sectors are expected to face continued uncertainty and potential losses in the coming months. On the other hand, companies like Costco, which have reported strong earnings and have seen an increase in consumer demand due to the pandemic, could be good investment options. Costco's membership fees could also be raised again in the near future. Okta, a cloud-based software company, also reported strong revenue growth in its fourth quarter. Overall, it's important for investors to stay informed about market trends and company performance before making investment decisions.

    • Zoom's impressive revenue growth in Q4Zoom's revenue grew 78% in Q4, added 140 high-value customers, and boasts a net dollar expansion rate above 130% for 7 quarters. Despite stock volatility, their growth is fueled by remote work trend and expansion into new areas.

      Despite not yet turning a profit, Zoom's Q4 revenue grew an impressive 78% and they added over 140 new high-value customers. However, the stock experienced volatility after the earnings report due to weaker-than-expected profit guidance. The business continues to attract large clients, with over 640 contributing over $100,000 in revenue, and boasts a net dollar expansion rate above 130% for the 7th consecutive quarter. Zoom's growth is fueled by the increasing trend of remote work due to the coronavirus pandemic, and their expansion into new areas like phone services indicates further potential for growth. Overall, the well-run business and dedication of co-founder Eric Yuan make it a worthwhile investment for those looking for long-term growth opportunities.

    • Impact of External Events on Companies: Zoom's Surprise Success and JPMorgan's LeadershipCompanies face external challenges, some struggle while others thrive; effective communication and adaptability are crucial; strong leadership, like JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, is essential in uncertain times

      Companies, just like the weather, can be significantly impacted by external events like the coronavirus. While some may struggle to adapt, others, like Zoom Video, may unexpectedly thrive. It's crucial for companies to communicate effectively about these changes, focusing on the opportunities rather than the challenges. Another key takeaway is the importance of strong leadership, as exemplified by JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon. His recovery from heart surgery is a reminder of his resilience and the significant impact he has on both the business world and politics. In the meantime, his co-presidents Daniel Pinto and Gordon Smith will steer the company. Lastly, the merger of Taco Bell and Chipotle signifies a changing of the guard, with Steve Ells stepping down as Chipotle's chairman and Brian Niccol taking the helm. These events highlight the importance of adaptability, effective communication, and strong leadership in uncertain times.

    • Steve Ells stepping down as Chipotle CEO, Campbell Soup reports better-than-expected earningsCEO change at Chipotle seen positively, Campbell Soup reports strong Q2 earnings and progress on debt reduction

      Steve Ells stepping down as CEO of Chipotle Mexican Grill may be seen as a positive move for the company. Ells had been handing over control to Tidwell Bahm since 2019, and investors were concerned about potential interference from Ells. Campbell Soup Company also reported better-than-expected second-quarter profits and revenue, leading to a 15% increase in their stock price. The company has been making progress in reducing debt and implementing cost-saving measures. While some may attribute the stock's rise to the ongoing pandemic and hoarding of essential items like soup, the strong report and earnings were also significant factors. In her new book, "Clearer, Closer, Better: How Successful People See the World," professor Emily Balchettis explores the science of motivation and the surprising tactics that can help individuals overcome challenges and achieve their goals.

    • Learning from failure and new ideasEmbracing failure and being open to new ideas can lead to innovation and success. Companies like 3M set ambitious goals and accept that some approaches may not work, allowing them to pivot quickly. Individuals, like Charlie Munger, have also achieved success by being open to new ideas despite lacking formal education.

      Embracing failure and being open to new ideas, even if they seem odd or unconventional, can lead to innovation and success. The company 3M sets ambitious goals for new revenue sources and accepts that some approaches may not work, allowing them to pivot quickly. Charlie Munger, a successful investor and businessman, also emphasizes the importance of failure. He dropped out of college, switched majors multiple times, and went on to build his business in finance and economics without formal education in those fields. By focusing on failure and being open to new ideas, individuals and companies can foster a culture of innovation and adaptability.

    • Learning from various fields and recognizing biases for effective decision makingStudying principles from diverse fields and acknowledging potential biases can enhance decision making and productivity.

      Effective decision making is a result of continuous learning and understanding human behavior, as well as recognizing the potential biases and errors that can influence decisions. Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's vice chairman, emphasizes the importance of studying principles from various fields and applying them to business decision making. A notable example is Walmart's deliberate use of visual framing to increase sales by keeping shelves cluttered and catching customers' attention. Another important concept is the drawback of multitasking, which can negatively impact productivity and decision making. Despite this, many employers continue to prioritize multitasking as a desirable skill due to the demanding nature of modern work environments. Ultimately, being aware of these principles and biases can help individuals and organizations make better decisions and improve overall performance.

    • Multitasking: Effective or Ineffective?Maintaining focus is generally more productive, but multitasking can be beneficial in certain situations. However, there's a tipping point where multitasking becomes ineffective, leading to decreased performance and efficiency.

      Multitasking can be an effective tool when used wisely, but it can also lead to decreased performance and efficiency when the workload becomes too heavy. The science suggests that maintaining a single focus is generally more productive, but multitasking can be beneficial in situations where we have expertise or the task demands are not too great. However, there is a tipping point where multitasking becomes ineffective, leading to longer wait times, misdiagnoses, and decreased overall performance. The emergency room doctor study is an analogy for any situation where we have downtime or additional tasks. Utilizing that downtime creatively can help us become more effective, but there is a limit to how much multitasking we can handle before it negatively impacts our work. The tools discussed in the book were helpful for learning how to play the drums, but as a social psychologist, I have the science to back up these findings.

    • Stay focused on long-term goals during market volatilityAvoid reacting to short-term market blips, keep investment focus on long-term goals and consider the bigger picture

      Maintaining a long-term investment focus can be challenging during market volatility, but it's essential to avoid overreacting to short-term market blips. Narrowing the focus to specific goals and their future consequences can help keep investors grounded. For instance, 3M, a large diversified manufacturer, has seen increased attention due to its mask production for coronavirus protection, but this is only a small part of its business. Therefore, it's crucial not to base investment decisions solely on recent news or events. Instead, consider the bigger picture and the long-term trajectory of your investments.

    • Churchill Downs: Stability and Growth Potential in Racing and GamblingChurchill Downs, a dividend aristocrat, offers stability and growth opportunities through its operations of horse racing, casinos, racetracks, and online gambling sites. Insider ownership and recent recommendations add to its appeal, while concerns over coronavirus have caused a 10% stock decline.

      Despite underperforming lately, Churchill Downs, a dividend aristocrat with a 62-year record of increasing dividends, offers stability and growth potential. The company, known for the Kentucky Derby, also operates casinos, racetracks, and gambling sites, including the largest online horse betting system in the US. With regulations easing for sports betting, there's an opportunity for growth in that area. Insiders hold 13% of the company, and it was recently recommended in a new entertainment service. Despite concerns over coronavirus, the stock is down 10%, which some believe presents an opportunity for further gains. Another mention went to Luckin Coffee, a tech-focused company with over 4,000 locations in China and a market cap over $10 billion. The stock has dropped from a peak of 50 this year to 37, and the coronavirus crisis has added to concerns. However, some see potential for recovery and growth in this sector as well.

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