Podcast Summary
Involvement Divide: The involvement divide in American politics is larger and harder to bridge than the left-right divide, with unengaged voters having different media habits and political thinking from the deeply engaged. Trump is currently winning them over.
There's a significant divide in American politics between those who are deeply engaged and follow politics closely, and those who have a negative interest or avoid it altogether. This divide, known as the involvement divide, is larger and harder to bridge than the left-right political divide. The unengaged voters, who make up a substantial portion of the electorate, have different media habits and political thinking from the deeply engaged. They do vote, and Trump is currently winning them over. To reach and understand these voters, it's essential to recognize that their lack of interest in politics doesn't necessarily mean they don't care or don't vote. The challenge for politicians and media is to find ways to engage and communicate with this group effectively.
Media consumption and political engagement: Individuals who consume news from sources other than traditional digital news websites are more likely to vote for Donald Trump due to distrust of mainstream news or preference for anti-establishment views, potentially shifting the political landscape
There are varying levels of political engagement among individuals, with some completely disengaged and unlikely to vote, while others, though not avid followers of politics, still participate in elections. A significant finding from recent data suggests that those who get their news from sources other than traditional digital news websites, such as social media, YouTube, and Google, are more likely to vote for Donald Trump. This trend may be due to a distrust of mainstream news or a preference for anti-establishment views. Historically, less politically engaged voters have leaned Democratic, but this dynamic may be shifting due to a fragmented media landscape and changing reasons for disengagement. The implications of these trends for the 2024 election and beyond are complex and multifaceted.
News consumption patterns and political engagement: The way people consume news and engage with politics has changed, resulting in a divide between hyper news consumers and those who avoid it. Understanding priorities and levels of engagement is crucial for political campaigns and policymakers.
The way people consume news and engage with politics has changed significantly, leading to a divide between hyper news consumers and those who avoid it altogether. This shift in media consumption patterns is a result of the increased availability of news sources and the fragmentation of media. While some people are deeply engaged and follow the news constantly, others have other priorities and don't want to learn about politics. Furthermore, there are individuals whose political views may not align with the two major parties, leading them to feel unrepresented and disengaged from the political process. Research suggests that these less involved voters prioritize issues such as affordability and inflation over political events like attempts to subvert elections or criminal trials. Understanding these differences in priorities and levels of engagement is crucial for political campaigns and policymakers.
Income and Political Engagement: Higher income individuals are more politically engaged and have a broader understanding of issues due to access to news and information, while less engaged voters prioritize economic issues based on personal experiences and cost of living concerns. Current economic climate may impact voter behavior towards President Biden.
Income plays a significant role in political involvement and the issues that voters consider important. Those with higher incomes are more likely to be politically engaged and have a broader understanding of political issues, shaped by a steady diet of news and information. In contrast, less engaged voters may prioritize economic issues based on their personal experiences and the immediate cost of living concerns. This dynamic could explain why some voters are turning against President Biden in the current economic climate, marked by high inflation and affordability issues. The conviction of former President Trump on 34 felony counts has had limited impact on voter behavior, likely due to a lack of new information for some voters and cynicism towards the justice system for others.
Political cynicism and its impact on voters: Political cynicism is deeply ingrained and makes it challenging to present new information to voters, especially those who are politically disengaged. The Trump impeachment trial and conviction served as an opportunity for this form of cynicism, but its impact on voter behavior is uncertain.
The media environment allows for a culture of political cynicism, and people believe that expressing skepticism makes them appear politically knowledgeable. The Trump impeachment trial and conviction served as a ripe opportunity for this form of cynicism, particularly among politically disengaged voters, who were most likely to shift from Trump to Biden based on the news. However, it's uncertain if this shift will persist, as these voters may be easily influenced by other informational jolts throughout the campaign. The challenge for Democrats is deciding whether to focus on the Trump conviction in their advertising campaigns or not, as some voters, especially those who are politically disengaged and cynical, may view it as just another instance of political maneuvering. Cynicism around politics has become deeply ingrained, making it difficult to present new information that can move people. The longer a belief or idea is held, the harder it becomes to change it (pretreatment effect). Breaking through this cynicism and getting a picture into people's heads is a challenging task, especially for those who don't follow politics closely.
Disengaged audiences, unexpected sources: Reaching disengaged individuals requires understanding their information sources beyond traditional political news and engaging with influencers to build parasocial relationships
Reaching people who are disengaged from traditional political news sources is a significant challenge. These individuals may not be avoiding politics altogether, but they are getting their information from unexpected places, such as influencers who are not primarily focused on politics. This trend, fueled by the rise of social media and alternative media, can make it difficult for institutional figures like Joe Biden to connect with these audiences. The research suggests that parasocial relationships, where individuals feel a sense of closeness to influencers, can be powerful in shaping political beliefs. However, for politicians and institutions, navigating this complex media landscape and reaching these audiences effectively is a formidable task.
Trust and Political Engagement: Despite expressing distrust in mainstream news and skepticism towards politics, consistently high voter turnout and stable political engagement levels suggest a complex relationship. Engaging and addressing concerns and priorities is key to convincing people to care about politics and vote.
Trust in mainstream news and political engagement are complex issues. People may express distrust in mainstream news and pride themselves on skepticism, but actually turning out to vote is a separate challenge. Third-party candidates face significant hurdles in securing votes, and the level of engagement and interest in politics tends to be stable over time. The hope that less engaged voters will become more involved and support a particular candidate closer to an election is not a guaranteed outcome. Convincing people of what they should care about is important, but acknowledging and addressing their concerns and priorities is equally crucial. As for book recommendations, "What Goes Without Saying" by Taylor Carlson and Jamie Settle, "Through the Grapevine" by Taylor Carlson, and "Sorry I'm Late. I Didn't Wanna Come" by Jessica Pan offer insights into communication, information dissemination, and dealing with differences.
Show production team: A diverse team of talented individuals, including Roland Hu, Elias Isketh, Kristen Lynn, Isaac Jones, Christina Samilewski, Shannon Busta, Andrew Strausser, and Sonia Herrero, collaborate to create high-quality content, innovative strategies, and engaging music for the show.
The production team behind the show is a diverse and talented group of individuals. Roland Hu, Elias Isketh, and Kristen Lynn are part of the team, along with original music by Isaac Jones, audience strategy by Christina Samilewski and Shannon Busta. The executive producer of New York Times opinion audio is Andrew Strausser, and special thanks go out to Sonia Herrero. Each member brings unique skills and expertise to the table, ensuring the show's success. The team's collaboration results in high-quality content, innovative strategies, and engaging music. By working together, they create a dynamic and meaningful listening experience for audiences.