The MMA Unshow

It's hard to make Marvin Vettori the likable guy in a matchup, but Paulo Costa has done it. This card is really, really good. Maybe not all the biggest names in the world, but plenty of sick bouts. Tune in.

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135 - Jamey Simmons (+210) - Johnny Munoz (-265)

-both coming off debut losses

-Simmons is just not a UFC caliber fighter

-BET - Munoz by decision +225 – (6/10) – Simmons clinch work will stretch the fight out

125 - Melissa Gatto (-110) - Victoria Leonardo (-110)

-debut for Gatto

-Leonardo is very durable (took a ton of damage before stopped by Manon Fiorot)

-BET -  over 1.5 rounds (-210) – (7/10) – maybe add to a parlay

135 - Miles Johns (-210) - Anderson Dos Santos (+170)

-Miles Johns much younger (27 to 36) - important moment for him

-Miles Johns comes from terrific boxing camp (Fortis) and wrestles very well

-Johns did incredibly well with high pressure, Kevin Natividad – carries power late (3rd round TKO)

-Dos Santos can survive in fights he can wrestle - he won’t have advantage here

-BET - Miles Johns inside distance (+235) – (7/10)

125 - Manel Kape (-210) - Ode Osbourne (+170)

-huge fight for both guys

-Kape came into promotion as RIZIN champ, has somewhat overwhelmed but overstated IMO

-Ode Osbourne has fought at 135

-interesting note that he is a teacher and is on summer break

-Kape 80% takedown defense

-difficult fight to call

-BET - Ode Osbourne (+170) – (4/10)

115 - Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-130) - Jessica Penne (+110)

-huge fight for KK coming off 4 losses

-possible Penne can win by sub (7 wins by sub), but KK only submitted once

-Penne decent striking defense (48%) but still absorbs 4.45/min – KK lands at 5.65/min

-BET - KK by decision (+110) - (6/10)

205 - Alonzo Menifield (-250) - Ed Herman (+200)

-Menifield has 8 KO of 10 win - Herman KO’d 3 times

-both fighters 3-2 in last 5 UFC fights

-Herman 3 fight win streak (2 stoppage)

-both land and absorb at the same rate (around 3.5 each)

-Menifield has 85% takedown defense

-BET - Menifield by KO/TKO (-145) - (5/10)

135 - Vince Morales (-105) - Drako Rodriguez (-115)

-both coming off stoppage losses

-common opponent is Aiemann Zahabi (Vince W by dec; Rodriguez L by KO)

-Morales takedown defense only 55%, Rodriguez averages 2.75/15 min

-BET - Rodriguez (-115) - (3/10)

155 - Rafael Fiziev (-300) - Bobby Green (+235)

-Fiziev 3 straight W capped off by Moicano KO

-Green won 3 out of 4 - most recently lost to Thiago Moises (unanimous decision)

-Fiziev has 100% takedown defense

-Bobby Green has great striking defense percentage (63%)

-fight is Fiziev’s to win - do you go decision (+120) or KO/TKO (+165)

-BET - Fiziev by decision (+120) - 5/10

135 - Song Yadong (-105) - Casey Kenney (-115)

-both coming off losses to great fighters - Cruz (Kenney) and Kyler Phillips (Song)

-really similar approaches – mix it up well but both want to strike

-Song Yadong has more power, but Kenney has good striking defense (59%)

-winner will be whoever controls clinch/grappling

-BET - Casey Kenney by decision (+160) - 5/10

115 - Tecia Torres (-140) - Angela Hill (+115)

-Tecia Torres impossible to stop

-Torres back to back wins

-Hill 4-2 last six - could be 6-0

-Hill slightly more active in striking (5.66 landed/4.98 absorbed) - Torres (4.3 landed/3.37 absorbed)

-Hill 76% takedown defense

-BET - Hill (+115) - not enough extra value for decision (+130) - 3/10

170 - Michael Chiesa (EVEN) - Vicente Luque (-120)

-quintessential striker v grappler

-both won 4/5

-both pressure in their own way

-Luque WAY more active on feet (5.74/5.78) to (1.89/1.71)

-both have average striking defense (54% to 52%)

-3.6 takedowns/15 for Chiesa - 65% takedown defense for Luque

-fight could look kind of like Luque v Randy Brown

-when Luque loses, its to someone like Chiesa - Leon Edwards took him down 3 times, Michael Graves took him down 7 times

-Chiesa last 2 losses by sub and Luque has 7 wins by sub, won last fight by sub over Woodley

-BET - Luque by submission (+700) - 4/10 (VALUE) - could just go Luque by stoppage (+160) and/or hedge with Chiesa decision (+235)

135 - Jose Aldo (-115) - Pedro Munhoz (-105)

-Aldo coming off Vera decision win; Munhoz coming off Jimmie Rivera decision win

-both guys really only lose to elite

-both guys aging (34), important fight

-Munhoz keeps higher pace in striking (5.6/5.87) to (3.45/3.52) - similar defense (around 60%)

-unlikely either wrestles

-Munhoz never stopped in 5 losses; Aldo stopped only by Holloway, McGregor, Yan

-BET - Fight to go distance (-170) - 8/10

265 - Ciryl Gane (-360) - Derrick Lewis (+270)

-Derrick Lewis seems more focused than ever - 4 straight wins including Blaydes

-Gane undefeated, somewhat unchallenged

-Contrary to popular belief, Gane keeps amazing pace striking (5.13/2.6) - Lewis (2.59/2.16)

-Wrestling unlikely but not impossible

-both guys generally patient, especially in 5 round fight

-BET - Gane by KO/TKO (+125) - 8/10 - maybe hedge with Lewis by KO/TKO (+300)