Podcast Summary
A cultural shift in values led to the rise of populist leaders: The rise of populist leaders is rooted in a shift in cultural values that began in the 1970s, prioritizing self-expression and individual freedom over material security, creating an opening for populist leaders to capitalize on feelings of cultural backlash and economic insecurity.
The rise of populist authoritarian leaders, like Donald Trump, is not unique to the United States. This phenomenon is happening in many countries around the world, including wealthy and poor ones, with high and low levels of immigration, and varying degrees of economic inequality. According to comparative political scientist Pippa Norris, this trend can be traced back to a "silent revolution" in cultural values that began in the 1970s. In the aftermath of World War II, people prioritized material security, but the younger generation that grew up in the 1960s and 1970s had different experiences and priorities. They took economic prosperity for granted and began to prioritize other values, such as self-expression and individual freedom. This shift in values created an opening for populist leaders to capitalize on feelings of cultural backlash and economic insecurity. It's important to understand this global trend and the underlying causes to effectively address the challenges posed by populist authoritarianism.
The Silent Revolution: A Cultural Shift in Society (1950s-1970s): During the Silent Revolution, new social movements led to the emergence of new values and priorities, replacing traditional values. This shift led to the rise of women's equality, the decline of religion, and the increasing acceptance of secular values, resulting in new political parties and leaders.
The late 1950s to 1970s saw a significant cultural shift in society, often referred to as the "Silent Revolution." This period was marked by the emergence of new social movements, including the environmental movement, protests against nuclear weapons, and the women's and LGBTQ rights movements. These movements led to new values and priorities, such as freedom, autonomy, and diversity, which gradually replaced traditional values like religion and nationalism. This shift in values led to the emergence of new political parties and the remaking of existing parties around these new issues. Three key pieces of evidence of this cultural shift include the rise of women's equality, the decline of religion, and the increasing acceptance of secular values. For example, after World War II, women were expected to return to traditional roles in the home, but by the 1960s and 1970s, women were demanding equal pay and opportunities in the workforce, leading to major legislative changes. Additionally, as security increased, religion became less important in people's lives, leading to a decline in church attendance and religious identifications. Finally, the acceptance of secular values became increasingly widespread, leading to a focus on quality of life and personal autonomy rather than traditional economic issues. Overall, the Silent Revolution represented a fundamental change in the basic level of society, which gradually produced new issues, new parties, and new party leaders.
Generational changes shape European values and attitudes: Younger generations prioritize social tolerance, trust, and a cosmopolitan identity, while older generations focus on security and stability. This shift in values has led to significant changes in European politics and society, including the decline of religious practices and the growing importance of environmental concerns.
Generational changes have significantly shaped European values and societal attitudes towards various issues, particularly religion and the environment, over the past few decades. This change is not due to a life cycle effect but rather the formative values and norms that individuals adopt during their childhood and adolescence. For instance, those growing up during times of economic uncertainty prioritize security and stability, while younger generations take these things for granted and focus on other values such as social tolerance, trust, and a cosmopolitan identity. This shift in values has led to significant changes in European politics and society, such as the decline of religious practices and the growing importance of environmental concerns. These changes have been driven by successive generations with distinct values and attitudes towards life, politics, and culture.
Generational shifts towards liberal values can be influenced by short-term events and older generations may react by supporting authoritarian populist parties: Generational shifts towards liberal values are not guaranteed and older generations may respond by supporting parties that push back against social liberalism, focusing on immigration and diversity as key issues
While generational changes towards more liberal values and attitudes have been occurring at an accelerated pace in many parts of the world, it's important to remember that these shifts are not deterministic and can be influenced by short-term events. The older generation, who may feel left behind by these trends, can react by supporting authoritarian populist parties that push back against social liberalism. These parties may not always be economically conservative and can even support public spending, but their main goal is to restore traditional values. Examples of such parties include the Sweden Democrats, the Brothers of Italy, and the National Front or National Rally in France. These parties often focus on immigration and diversity as key issues, but their agenda goes beyond that. The accelerated pace of generational change and the reaction of older generations creates a complex and dynamic societal landscape.
The rise of parties challenging reproductive, LGBTQ, globalization, and immigration issues: Older generations feel disoriented and powerless due to societal changes, turning to parties that promise to restore the past and tap into feelings of identity, status, and moral values
The political landscape in Europe and beyond is shifting due to the rise of parties that push back against issues related to reproductive rights, LGBTQ rights, globalization, and immigration. This psychological tendency can be described at two levels: the first is the easily observable polling data that shows attitudes towards these issues are predictive of political affiliations. The second is a deeper sense of power loss and disorientation, a feeling that the world is changing against them and they are losing control. This disorientation is particularly strong among older generations who feel they have few tethers to society and that their country is changing too rapidly. These parties offer a nostalgic promise to make things the way they were, appealing to people's sense of identity, status, and moral values. This is not just a psychological change, but a real change in people's lives, and the consequences of this trend can be seen in events like Brexit.
Understanding Populist Appeals: Materialist and Post-materialist Perspectives: Populist leaders use a mix of materialist (representing common people, jettisoning unpopular policies) and post-materialist (transgressive aesthetic, challenging authority) appeals to gain support.
The appeal of certain political figures and parties, such as those associated with Brexit, Trump, and other populist movements, can be understood through the lens of both materialist and post-materialist concerns. Materialist appeals involve jettisoning unpopular policies and promising to represent the interests of the common people. Post-materialist appeals, on the other hand, involve a transgressive aesthetic that challenges established authority and speaks to a sense of cultural backlash. This transgressive appeal can manifest in various ways, such as leaders who swear in public, challenge experts, or criticize civil servants. Populist leaders often position themselves as speaking for the "ordinary people," often code for white, native-born populations, and offer economic policies that appeal to a left-leaning, centrist audience. The materialist and post-materialist appeals are not mutually exclusive and can coexist in the same political movement.
Transgressive leaders defy institutions and experts, appealing to marginalized groups: Transgressive leaders connect with supporters by rejecting gatekeepers, using controversial language and actions, and standing up for tribal identity and traditional values.
The appeal of transgressive political leaders lies in their defiance against institutions and experts who some people feel have excluded and cowed them. This need for unapologetic leaders who reject the gatekeeping capacity of these institutions is particularly strong among groups who feel culturally marginalized and economically disadvantaged. Transgressive leaders often use controversial language and actions, which can include pushing back on democratic norms and human rights. While some of these leaders have faced corruption scandals and have been brought down, others have moderated their views to form coalitions and make gains on specific issues, such as immigration policies. The key factor is the emotional connection these leaders create with their supporters by standing up for their tribal identity and traditional values.
The rise of populist authoritarian parties around 2010: Long-term trends like weakening party loyalties and fragmented party systems, along with precipitating developments like the European immigration crisis and economic recession, created favorable circumstances for populist parties to gain more seats and eventually form coalitions or even become the largest parties in government.
The success of populist authoritarian parties, which have been around for decades but were previously marginalized, experienced a significant shift around 2010. This shift was due to a combination of long-term trends, such as the weakening of traditional party loyalties and the fragmentation of party systems, as well as precipitating developments like the European immigration crisis and the economic recession of 2008. These factors created favorable circumstances for populist parties, allowing them to gain more seats and eventually form coalitions or even become the largest parties in government. Populist parties have become more savvy at presenting a moderate image on many issues, abandoning extremist elements and appealing primarily on immigration and economic concerns. For example, parties like the Brothers of Italy in Italy and the National Rally in France have gained significant support by toning down their extremist image and becoming more respectable.
The Rise of Populist Leaders: A Response to Cultural and Demographic Tipping Points: Populist leaders tap into feelings of alienation, capitalizing on cultural shifts and societal changes that leave groups feeling their values and identities are no longer aligned with the dominant culture, fueled by media and technology that intensify confrontation with these changes.
The rise of minor parties and populist leaders in various parts of Europe and beyond is a response to profound demographic and cultural tipping points that have shifted the electorate's desires and identities. These politicians tap into the politics of resentment, capitalizing on groups feeling alienated from the cultural and societal changes taking place. The supply side, including parties' responses and regulations, plays a role, but the demand side, or what voters want, is often overlooked. The tipping point occurs when a group, previously the majority, feels their values and identities are no longer aligned with the culture, leading to a shift in power. Additionally, the role of media and technology in shaping people's perceptions and exposing them to charged identity-based stories cannot be underestimated. The 2010s saw the rise of smartphones and algorithmic media, leading to increased confrontation with feared societal changes and contributing to the rise of populist figures.
Social media's impact on democratic engagement and political communications: Social media expands access to info but also spreads misinformation, reinforces extremes, and creates media bubbles, changing the nature of campaigning and politics
Social media serves as a double-edged sword in democratic engagement and political communications. While it allows individuals to access a broader range of information and break free from local media bubbles, it also facilitates the spread of misinformation, reinforces conspiratorial theories, and creates media bubbles. Social media's impact on political systems is significant, as it enables candidates to bypass traditional gatekeepers and reach their supporters more directly. However, the role of education and intention in mitigating the negative effects of social media may be less relevant due to the influence of algorithms that serve up content based on users' interests, potentially pushing people towards extremes and creating a counterreaction among their opposition. Ultimately, social media has changed the nature of campaigning and politics, shrinking the distance and speed of information dissemination, but its impact on attitudes, values, norms, and political orientations remains a topic of ongoing debate.
Social media's impact on politics is overstated: Despite the Internet's expansion, TV remains the primary source of political info. Elites drive social media influence, and historical parallels exist, but populist leaders are a new element.
While social media and the Internet have amplified and expanded the reach of political information and discourse, they have not fundamentally changed the way politics functions or how people engage with it. Television remains the most common source of information for many people, and social media's influence comes more from the elites in media, politics, and technology who use it extensively, rather than from the general public. Additionally, the current political climate may not be as unusual as it seems, as there have been authoritarian figures and movements throughout history. However, there are also new elements, such as the number of leaders with populist orientations around the world, that set this period apart.
Populist authoritarian leaders rise due to cultural issues, not just economics: Despite economic power, populist leaders gain support due to age, ethnicity, and feelings of relative deprivation, not income or savings.
The rise of populist authoritarian leaders since 2010, despite their economic and coercive powers, is driven more by cultural issues than economic ones. This trend, which goes hand in hand with democratic backsliding, is not limited to poorer countries or areas with declining industries. Even affluent countries with strong welfare states have seen the rise of populist parties. Economic indicators such as income and savings do not predict support for these parties at the individual level. Instead, factors like age, ethnicity, and feelings of relative deprivation are more significant. For social democratic parties seeking to address this issue, focusing solely on economic solutions may not be enough. The cultural issues dividing these parties internally make it difficult for them to appeal to both their traditional working-class base and liberal constituencies. Adaptation by center-right parties seems to be easier in this context.
Balancing change and cultural reassurance for election success: Effective politicians strike a balance between promising change and addressing cultural anxieties for election success, especially in economic and foreign policy issues. Navigating cultural anxieties around immigration is more complex.
Effective politicians can strike a balance between promising change and addressing cultural anxieties. This was exemplified by former President Barack Obama, who paired his message of change with efforts to reassure those anxious about it. In contrast, some politicians focus solely on change, while others prioritize reassurance. The ability to do both is crucial for winning elections, especially when it comes to economic and foreign policy issues where deliverables can be promised. However, addressing cultural anxieties, particularly around issues like immigration, is more challenging. Politicians can promise to make their countries great again or reverse populist policies, but it's difficult to promise that these changes won't leave people out or create new anxieties. Effective politicians must navigate these complexities to build and maintain a coalition.
Rishi Sunak promises continuity and stability while acknowledging change: Sunak positions himself as a reassuring figure, promising continuity and economic stability, but cannot alter immigration policies due to political pressures. Anxiety about economic instability can manifest as both materialistic and cultural concerns, driving voters to prioritize competence and security.
During the recent prime minister's question time, Rishi Sunak positioned himself as a stable and reassuring figure, promising continuity and economic stability, while acknowledging some change is necessary. However, he cannot alter immigration policies due to fear of losing votes to populist parties like the one led by Nigel Farage. The economic and cultural issues are interconnected, as people's anxiety about inflation and economic instability can manifest as both materialistic and cultural concerns. This anxiety, driven by generational conflict and a sense of disorientation, can lead voters to prioritize competence and economic security over other concerns. As generations age out of the electorate, understanding these interconnected issues and addressing them effectively becomes increasingly important for political success.
The rise of strongman leaders amidst generational shifts and political upheaval: The tension between younger, liberal generations and older, conservative ones has led to a desire for strong leaders promising to restore traditional values. However, demographic shifts towards secular values may not be enough to overcome weakening democratic institutions.
We're currently experiencing a period of cultural and political upheaval as younger generations with liberal values become the demographic majority, but older generations with more conservative values still hold significant power. This tension has led to a yearning for strongman leaders who promise to restore traditional values and reempower those feeling resentful and silenced. However, the idea of demographic determinism is no longer a safe assumption in politics, and it's unclear how long this period of turbulence will last or what the new normal will look like. The generational shift towards more secular values is a long-term trend, but it may not be enough to overcome the political and institutional changes that are weakening democracy and public trust in norms. For a deeper understanding of this phenomenon, I recommend the following books: 1. "How Democracies Die" by Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt 2. "The Populist Radical Right: A Pathological Normalcy?" by Cas Mudde and Cristobal Rovira Kaltwasser 3. "What Is Populism?" by Jan-Werner Müller. These books provide valuable insights into the causes and consequences of populist movements and the challenges they pose to democratic institutions.
Rise of Strongman Leaders: Beyond Manipulation and Propaganda: New literature suggests leaders like Putin have risen due to public support for security and order, despite manipulation and propaganda. Understanding popular appeals of authoritarianism requires revisiting classic works and reconsidering assumptions about democratic backsliding.
The rise of authoritarian strongman leaders around the world may not be solely due to manipulation and propaganda, but also due to genuine public support for security and order. The new literature suggests that leaders like Putin in Russia and Central Eastern Europe have risen to power in times of deep political, economic, and security crises by promising efficient rule, some form of elections, and popular debate. However, this support may not be accurately reflected in opinion polls. Another key point is the changing face of tyranny in the 21st century, where electoral authoritarian regimes manipulate and fake democracy and control information to maintain popular support. It's important to revisit classic works like Hannah Arendt's "Origins of Totalitarianism" to gain insights into the contemporary regime and understand the popular appeals of authoritarianism. Theorists need to reconsider their assumptions about democratic backsliding and consider whether there is genuine popular support for authoritarian strongman leaders who promise stability and security.
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