Podcast Summary
Opposition to Biden's Reelection Bid: Despite being the oldest president, Biden faces opposition from Americans due to voter dissatisfaction, political polarization, and age concerns. However, historical precedent suggests incumbents can still win reelection despite low approval ratings.
President Joe Biden faces significant opposition from Americans, including many Democrats, who do not want him to run for reelection in 2024. Reasons for this include general voter dissatisfaction with incumbents, increased political polarization, and specific concerns about Biden's age. With Biden being the oldest president in US history, over two-thirds of Americans believe he is too old to run for another term. The potential for a health incident or other unforeseen event could crystallize these fears and make them difficult for his campaign to address. However, it's important to note that historical precedent shows that incumbents, even those with lower approval ratings at this stage in their terms, have gone on to win reelection.
Concerns over President Biden's age and fitness for the job: Some voters and Democrats worry about Biden's age and ability to handle the rigors of the presidency, potentially impacting his effectiveness.
The public perception of President Joe Biden's age and fitness for the job is a concern for some voters and Democrats. It's not just about the potential for embarrassing moments or memes, but rather the deeper fear that the rigors of the presidency might be too much for him, making him less effective. A focus group of Biden voters revealed that none believed he'd be up to the job at 86, which would be the end of a second term. The White House argues that Biden's busy schedule and energy levels prove he's up to the task, but some Democrats feel forced into supporting him despite their concerns. The episode of Biden spending an hour with the speaker's family in the White House showcased his kindness, graciousness, and sharp memory, but also his tendency for long stories, which have been a part of him throughout his career. The age issue is not new, and it's a genuine concern for some, even if it's not the only factor in the political landscape.
Challenges in portraying Biden's mental acuity: Effectively communicating Biden's mental sharpness to voters is tough due to limited public engagements and narratives about his age and past issues. Allowing him to be more off the cuff could lead to memorable moments, good or bad.
Despite Joe Biden's age and past political issues, his mental acuity remains sharp. However, effectively communicating this to the electorate is a challenge due to his limited public engagements. Biden's lack of dominant public persona leaves room for narratives about him, and his avoidance of major interviews fuels suspicion. However, during moments like the State of the Union address, Biden's ability to mix it up and show energy surpasses expectations, allowing him to continuously clear the low bar set for him. The risks of occasional gaffes or stumbles must be weighed against the risks of not letting him engage publicly, as the narrative about him could take hold. Ultimately, allowing Biden to be more off the cuff and show his personality could lead to memorable moments, both positive and negative, but it's a risk worth taking to show the authentic Joe Biden to the public.
Vice President Harris' Role in Biden's Campaign: A Delicate Balance: Despite challenges, Harris aims to make a higher profile for herself in Biden's campaign by drawing contrasts and being a 'fighter' against the opposing ticket.
Vice President Kamala Harris' role in President Joe Biden's campaign is a complex one. Her unpopularity compared to Biden and the challenges she faced during her tenure as vice president have raised concerns among Democrats about her ability to appeal to voters if something were to happen to Biden. However, Harris' lack of perceived political strength also serves to alleviate pressure on Biden to step down or face a primary challenge. As the campaign gears up for 2024, Harris is expected to focus on drawing contrasts with the opposing ticket and establishing a clear message that sets her apart as an individual. Despite the obstacles she cannot control, such as being the first black woman to serve as vice president and dealing with sexism and racism, Harris will aim to make a higher profile for herself by being a "fighter" against the Republican nominee. Ultimately, Harris' role in the campaign is a delicate balance between addressing concerns about her ability to lead and leveraging her unique experiences and strengths to appeal to voters.
Challenges for Presidents in Their Third Year: Presidents often face low approval ratings in their third year, and to overcome this, they must make the election a choice rather than a referendum, and have a clear message that resonates with voters, especially on economic issues.
Historically, the third year of a presidency can be a challenging time for approval ratings. During this period, the vice president may not be allowed to outshine the president to avoid raising questions about the president's future plans. For instance, Joe Biden's approval rating is currently at mid-40s, which is not great but not unusual for this stage of a presidency. Presidents like Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, and even Biden himself in 2011 experienced similar dips in approval ratings during their third years. The solution for incumbents, as seen in Obama's re-election campaign, is to make the election a choice rather than a referendum, and to have a clear message that resonates with voters. In Biden's case, the lack of trust in his handling of the economy could be a major concern, as voters currently trust Donald Trump more on economic issues. This issue may not be solely due to inflation but also the overall cost of living, which has been a concern for voters for some time. The incumbent's approval rating can be negatively affected by these concerns, regardless of who holds the office.
2024 Presidential Race: Economy vs Identity and Cultural Values: The 2024 presidential race will be influenced by voters' perceptions of economic conditions before and after COVID, with Biden focusing on identity and cultural values. Democrats' midterm success despite Biden's low approval ratings and economic concerns shows voters prioritize issues beyond the economy.
The 2024 presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will likely be shaped by voters' perceptions of economic conditions before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. While Trump may argue that the economy was thriving before COVID, Biden is expected to focus on issues related to identity and cultural values, which resonate strongly with voters. Despite Biden's low approval ratings and concerns about his handling of the economy, Democrats performed well in the 2022 midterm elections. Voters' priorities extend beyond economic issues, and the stark differences between the parties on social and cultural issues are a significant factor in their voting decisions. Biden's campaign team believes historical trends may not apply to him, as the midterm results showed. Inflation was a concern for voters, but they did not necessarily blame Biden for it. Abortion and other social issues, however, highlighted the contrasting positions of the parties, making these issues critical in the 2024 race.
Impact of candidate performance on elections: Democrats outperformed expectations in 2022 elections due to moderate candidates, while extreme Republican candidates faced a penalty at the polls. Biden's bipartisan deals could be an advantage in 2024 by appealing to voters tired of political extremism.
The performance of candidates in elections, particularly in competitive races, can have a significant impact on voter turnout and election outcomes. According to a report by Catalyst, Democrats outperformed expectations in competitive races during the 2022 elections, while Republicans tended to nominate more extreme candidates. This overperformance of Democrats can be attributed to their selection of mainstream Democratic candidates, who were perceived as more moderate than their Republican counterparts. Conversely, Republican candidates who embraced extreme positions, such as denying election results, faced a penalty at the polls. Looking ahead to the 2024 elections, President Biden's ability to negotiate bipartisan deals and his reputation for being willing to work across the aisle could be a significant advantage for him. The success of these bipartisan efforts could help Biden appeal to voters who are tired of political extremism and want to see compromise in Washington.
Democrats need a diverse coalition to win elections: Democrats should frame accomplishments as proof points of their fight for the American people, contrasting it with the opposition's agenda.
The Democratic Party, due to the electoral college and the structure of the Senate, needs a diverse and inclusive coalition to win elections. In contrast, the Republican Party can rely on a more conservative base. During the 2012 Democratic Convention, efforts were made to highlight the accomplishments of President Obama through key messengers like Bill Clinton. However, focusing solely on accomplishments may not resonate with voters who are struggling economically. Instead, accomplishments should be framed as proof points that the Democrats are fighting for them and will continue to do so. Biden's recent address on the debt ceiling deal provides an example of this approach, emphasizing the protection of essential rights and services while highlighting the opposition's agenda. In summary, the Democratic Party's message should focus on the ongoing fight for the American people and contrast it with the opposition's agenda.
Fear of Republicans drives young voters to Democrats: Young voters are motivated to vote for Democrats due to their opposition to Republican policies and candidates, even if they're not particularly fond of Biden.
Despite some voters' reservations about President Joe Biden's performance, there is a strong fear and opposition towards the Republican Party and its candidates. This fear, particularly among young voters, has led them to vote for Democrats in significant numbers, even if they don't particularly like Biden. Biden's relatively low approval ratings might not be a disadvantage in this context, as he doesn't take up much political space and allows the focus to be on opposing the Republicans. This dynamic was evident in the 2022 elections, where young voters turned out in large numbers to prevent Republican candidates from gaining power. The fear of what the Republicans represent and their policies, such as Dobbs and election denial, has become a powerful motivator for these voters to support the Democrats.
Biden lets Republicans take the spotlight, Trump reverts to outsider role: Biden's approach allows Republicans to lead attacks, Trump can regain outsider status, but Biden has advantage due to negative opinions and voter loyalty
President Biden's approach to politics allows Republicans to take the spotlight and motivate Democrats against them, leaving a large middle ground for Biden to appeal to a broad coalition of voters. Trump, as a former incumbent, can revert to his role as an outsider and challenge the establishment in a potential rematch. However, Biden's advantage lies in the fact that most people have formed a negative opinion of Trump, and he continues to lose support among independent voters and those dissatisfied with both candidates. Biden won the last race, and it's unclear how many voters who supported him in 2020 would switch back to Trump.
Biden vs DeSantis: Democrats' Concerns Over DeSantis' Extremism: Democrats worry that DeSantis' perceived extremism and Trump's base could make him a tough opponent in a general election, but his ability to govern effectively in Florida may mitigate some concerns. A weak Democratic candidate in 2022 helped DeSantis, but alternative Republican candidates like Tim Scott or Nikki Haley could also emerge as viable options.
The matchup between Biden and DeSantis is becoming a concern for Democrats due to DeSantis' perceived extremism and his ability to mobilize Trump's base if Trump is not the nominee. The speaker notes that DeSantis' actions and media coverage have shifted the perception of him as an extreme Republican, which may not serve him well in a general election. Additionally, if Trump loses the primary, there's a risk that he could try to burn down the party, making it more difficult for DeSantis to secure the nomination. The speaker also mentions that the Democratic Party had a weak candidate in Florida during the 2022 midterms and that DeSantis was able to govern in a way that didn't make him seem as extreme to Florida voters. However, the speaker also acknowledges that this scenario is less likely but not impossible. In a more off-chance scenario, a more strategically positioned Republican candidate, such as Tim Scott or Nikki Haley, could emerge as a viable alternative to both Trump and DeSantis.
The Republican primary electorate in 2023 is distinctly different from past primaries: Republican voters in 2023 prioritize MAGA ideology over electability, making it challenging for non-MAGA candidates like Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie to gain significant support.
The Republican primary electorate in 2023 is vastly different from the electorate of previous Republican primaries, and the current candidates, such as Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, and Chris Christie, do not seem capable of appealing to the MAGA-leaning base. The Republican Party has embraced populism and economic and cultural populism, and candidates who are perceived as not being MAGA enough, like Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, are unlikely to gain significant support. Additionally, candidates who criticize Trump or DeSantis, like Chris Christie, face strong opposition from a large segment of the Republican electorate. The lack of concern for electability and a strategic approach among the majority of Republican voters sets the party apart from the Democrats, who are more focused on winning the general election.
Preparing Biden for the debates and countering negative messaging: Biden's team should get him out and about during the primary, engaging with crowds, showing energy and compassion, using humor, attending ribbon-cutting events, and highlighting accomplishments to effectively counteract negative rhetoric and maintain voter connection.
Joe Biden's team needs to get him out and about during the Democratic primary to prepare him for the debates and to counteract the constant negative messaging coming from Republican candidates. Biden's experience as president gives him unique advantages, such as the ability to pass legislation and shape narratives, but these accomplishments need to be effectively communicated to voters. To do this, Biden should engage with crowds, show energy and compassion, and use humor to diffuse potential age-related concerns. Additionally, Biden's team should focus on attending ribbon-cutting events and other public appearances to highlight his accomplishments and continue pushing forward his agenda. Overall, it's crucial for Biden to be an active and visible presence during the primary season to effectively counteract the negative rhetoric and maintain his connection with voters.
Understanding the Consequences of Different Election Outcomes: Former Obama advisor Jon Favreau urges people to consider the potential harm of the opposing side in the upcoming election and suggests reading books like 'How to Break Up with Your Phone', 'A Visit from the Goon Squad', and 'No One is Talking About This' for insights on reducing screen addiction, storytelling, and Internet culture.
During the upcoming election, there are two distinct visions and paths for the future, and it's crucial for people to understand the potential consequences of each choice. Former Obama advisor Jon Favreau emphasized the importance of reminding people of the potential harm that could come from the opposing side if they are not returned to power. Additionally, Favreau shared his current reading list, which includes "How to Break Up with Your Phone" by Catherine Price, "A Visit from the Goon Squad" by Jennifer Egan, and "No One is Talking About This" by Patricia Lockwood. These books offer insights on reducing screen addiction, storytelling, and the Internet culture, respectively.
