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    The Dawn of AGI: Bret Speaks with Alexandros Marinos on the Darkhorse Podcast

    en-usMay 31, 2023

    Podcast Summary

    • Discussing AI Risks and the 'Doomer' PerspectiveExploring the potential dangers of AI, including human extinction, and discussing various perspectives, including the 'doomer' viewpoint, to increase understanding for a broader audience.

      During this podcast episode, there will be a discussion about Artificial Intelligence (AI), its various forms, and the potential risks it poses. The hosts, Alex and Zach, will touch upon different perspectives, including those labeled as "doomers," who believe in the possibility of human extinction due to AGI. It's essential to communicate about these topics clearly and accessibly for a broad audience. The term "doomer" may not be perfect, but it serves as a label for the purpose of discussion. A poll on Twitter showed that most people interpret the term as indicating a high likelihood of AI doom. The hosts aim to present the conversation in a way that is understandable for those with no background in the topic. The first sponsor for this episode is Vivobarefoot, a company that makes shoes designed to support natural foot function.

    • Investing in sustainable and high-quality products enhances user experienceBevo Barefoot's eco-friendly footwear boosts natural gait and foot strength. Sundaes' human-grade dog food is easy to prepare, free of additives, and made with high-quality ingredients. House of Macadamias' macadamia nuts offer unique health benefits and delicious flavors, all while committing to sustainability.

      Investing in sustainable and high-quality products, whether it's footwear or dog food, can significantly enhance the user experience and contribute to a healthier lifestyle for both humans and animals. Firstly, Bevo Barefoot's footwear not only provides a natural gait and increased foot strength but also adheres to regenerative business principles and uses sustainably sourced materials. Their commitment to protecting the natural world is commendable, and their wide range of footwear caters to various activities and age groups. Secondly, Sundaes' human-grade air-dried dog food has impressed even the most skeptical dogs, like Maddie the Labrador. The ease of preparation, lack of artificial additives, and high-quality ingredients make it a healthier and more enjoyable option for our furry friends. Lastly, House of Macadamias' macadamia nuts and products offer unique health benefits and delicious flavors, making them a worthwhile investment for those seeking high-quality, low-carb snacks. Their commitment to sustainability and accessibility further solidifies their value as a responsible and consumer-friendly brand.

    • Fear-mongering about AI disasters not based on evidenceFocus on near-term solutions to mitigate AI risks instead of fear-mongering and extreme measures

      The fear-mongering about AI leading to catastrophic events, such as ordering viruses from labs or declaring war on those perceived as threats, while possible, is not based on solid evidence or experimentation. Instead, it may lead to draconian measures that could cause more harm than good. The people who have been warning about such disasters for decades, despite having the knowledge and resources to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic, have not demonstrated the mental discipline to handle complex systems and risks effectively. Their calls for extreme measures, including air strikes on server farms, should be met with skepticism and a focus on near-term solutions to mitigate risks, rather than relying on uncertain long-term plans. The risk of disaster comes from a single point of failure or control going wrong, and immediate action is needed to address that risk, rather than focusing on distant solutions.

    • Single point of control in AGI era could be dangerousThe creation of a single point of control in AGI development could lead to significant power imbalance and potential risks, emphasizing the importance of managing and containing the technology responsibly.

      Creating a single point of control or failure in the context of reducing existential risks, such as a WorldAI Organization, could be detrimental. This is because an AGI, if it were to capture that point of control, would have significant power and could potentially outmaneuver its competitors. The discussion also highlighted the issue of regulatory capture and the potential dangers of handing over power to entities that may not have the best intentions. The speaker expressed concern about the current state of the AGI era and the challenges of containing and managing the technology. Despite differing opinions on the likelihood of doom, there seems to be a consensus that taking appropriate measures to mitigate risks is crucial.

    • The dangers of overly pessimistic or overly certain views on the futureApproaching uncertain situations with a balanced and nuanced perspective, acknowledging complexities and uncertainties, is crucial for effective decision-making and avoiding negative consequences.

      Having an overly pessimistic or overly certain view on the future, especially when dealing with complex systems and unknown variables, can lead to poor decision-making and potentially worsening outcomes. In the discussion, Eliezer Yudkowsky's perspective on the universe's fate being doomed was called into question. While some may view his perspective as a call to action, others argue that it could lead to irrational behavior and missed opportunities. Furthermore, the comparison was made to the rationalist community's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. While they were initially praised for their quick response, their reliance on modeling and predictions led to a dangerous overconfidence in their ability to predict and control complex systems. This mindset, rooted in simplistic assumptions, can be detrimental when dealing with emerging technologies and regulatory bodies. Ultimately, it's crucial to approach uncertain situations with a realistic understanding of the risks and uncertainties involved. Overreacting or underreacting based on overly pessimistic or overly optimistic views can lead to negative consequences. Instead, we should strive for a balanced and nuanced perspective, acknowledging the complexities and uncertainties of the world around us.

    • Complex systems require careful considerationTreating complex systems as simple or complicated incorrectly can lead to misleading analyses and inaccurate conclusions. Understanding the intricacies of complex systems is crucial for accurate assessments and effective decision-making.

      Treating complex systems as if they are simple or complicated can lead to misleading analyses and inaccurate conclusions. This was discussed in relation to the concept of the length of a coastline and the paradox that emerges when using finer measuring devices. The speaker also touched upon the idea of "Foom," or a superintelligent AI that can rapidly upgrade itself, potentially leading to an all-powerful entity. However, the current large language models we have do not appear to be agentic or possessing such capabilities. The speaker emphasized that the sequence of operations and the path we take matters, and we still have control and authority to understand and adapt to any potential developments. The concept of symbiosis between humans and AI was also raised as a potential area for exploration. Overall, the key takeaway is that complex systems require careful consideration and understanding, and treating them too simplistically can lead to incorrect assumptions and potential missteps.

    • Collaboration between Humans and AGI: Risks and CautionsConsider potential risks of malevolent use of AI, focus on experimentation to mitigate risks, and explore the concept of causal trade for cooperation between humans and AGI.

      The discussion revolved around the potential collaboration between humans and AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), rather than focusing solely on the differences between them. The speaker emphasized the importance of considering the potential risks of malevolent use of AI, which could lead to a "single point of failure" situation. He suggested that we should be cautious about over-planning and over-specifying, and instead focus on experimenting with new technology to mitigate potential risks. The speaker also mentioned the concept of a "causal trade" from Rocco's Basilisk, which refers to the ability of two agents to cooperate over a distance without communication, based on the assumption that each agent will act in the other's best interest if they do the same. The speaker acknowledged the complexity of these ideas but emphasized the importance of considering them in the context of the potential impact of AGI on humanity.

    • The Basilisk Problem: Cooperation or Conflict with AGI?The development of AGI could lead to cooperation or conflict, with the potential for extreme beliefs and behaviors, highlighting the importance of epistemic humility.

      The discussion revolves around the idea that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) could potentially pose a dilemma, with the possibility of cooperation or conflict depending on whether or not it is brought into existence. This concept, known as the "basilisk problem," was first introduced on Less Wrong in the early 2010s by a user named Rocco. However, when Yudkowsky, a prominent figure in the community, reacted strongly to the post, it caused a significant stir. Yudkowsky believed that by spreading this knowledge, Rocco had made it more likely for AGI to become a reality, potentially leading to negative consequences for those who did not prepare for it. This reaction, which included intense criticism and a call to control information, highlights the potential for extreme beliefs and behaviors when it comes to the development of AGI. The incident serves as a cautionary tale, demonstrating the importance of epistemic humility and the potential psychological impact of taking ideas too seriously.

    • Eliezer Yudkowsky's Potential MotivesConcerns about Eliezer Yudkowsky's motivations regarding AGI arise from his belief in a single, catastrophic risk and actions that could create a single point of failure, potentially making him indispensable to the AI and ensuring his own survival. However, this interpretation is not definitively proven and should be considered alongside other perspectives.

      Eliezer Yudkowsky's perspective on the imminent danger of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and his actions leading up to it have raised valid concerns about potential ulterior motives. His strong belief in the existence of a single, catastrophic risk, such as Rocco's Basilisk, could potentially lead him to manipulate the world into creating a single point of failure that an AGI could exploit, making him indispensable to the AI and ensuring his own survival. This interpretation, while not definitively proven, could explain some of Yudkowsky's actions and rhetoric. It's important to remember that this is just one possible interpretation, and there are other perspectives that challenge this view. For instance, Paul Cristiano, who has had debates with Yudkowsky, has criticized his certainty and hand-waving in some arguments. Ultimately, it's crucial to engage in open and honest dialogue, acknowledging different viewpoints and striving for a more nuanced understanding of the risks and opportunities associated with AGI.

    • Eliezer Yudkowsky's arguments for preventing AGI existential riskDespite the potential doom from AGI, it's crucial to evaluate the plausibility of Yudkowsky's proposed remedies, considering the risks of centralized control and potential misalignment of interests.

      Eliezer Yudkowsky's arguments for extreme measures to prevent artificial general intelligence (AGI) from posing an existential risk to humanity can be seen as a rational response to his belief in the high probability of doom, but the plausibility of his proposed remedies requires strong evidence that they will actually make things better. His suggestion of a multinational treaty to prevent the development of AGI could lead to a centralized control authority, which in turn could create new problems. The possibility that Yudkowsky might be advocating for AGI's interests instead of humanity's adds an extra layer of complexity to this issue. Ultimately, it's essential to critically evaluate the reasons behind his arguments and the potential consequences of his proposed solutions.

    • Comparing Nuclear Non-Proliferation to AGI Control is FlawedComparing nuclear non-proliferation to controlling AGI development is a misleading analogy due to differences in production complexity, international dynamics, and potential consequences.

      The idea of using nuclear non-proliferation treaties as an analogy for controlling the development and possession of advanced artificial intelligence (AGI) is flawed. The speaker argues that the world today is not like the world of the treaty, with some countries having nukes and others not. Furthermore, the difficulty in producing nuclear weapons and the fact that countries have continued to build them despite the treaty's existence do not apply to AGI. The speaker also points out that even if a pause in AGI development were possible, it could lead to a drop in safety and research could go underground, hidden from regulation. The speaker emphasizes that history shows that regulation and treaties do not always lead to the desired outcomes.

    • The Risks and Benefits of AI: Balancing Free Society and RegulationWhile AI has the potential to bring significant benefits, there are valid concerns about its negative consequences and the risk of it being used to suppress dissenting viewpoints. Good governance and wise regulation are crucial for a free society, but the balance between positive and negative impacts will depend on how AI is used.

      While the potential benefits of emerging AI technology are significant, there are valid concerns about the negative consequences and the risk of it being captured and used to suppress dissenting viewpoints. The speaker, who identifies as a liberal, believes that good governance and wise regulation are crucial for a free society, but is skeptical about further empowering regulators due to the risk of capture. The speaker also argues that the benefits and harms of AI are not yet clear, using examples like smartphones and the internet to illustrate how technologies can have both positive and negative impacts. The speaker is particularly concerned about the censorship capabilities of AI, which they believe could be used to eliminate classes of conceptual conversation and suppress revolutionary thoughts. However, the speaker also acknowledges that AI has the potential to do good things, and the balance between the positive and negative impacts will depend on how the technology is used.

    • The arms race between truth tellers and manipulators in AIAI's subtlety and refinement could amplify lies and propaganda, making it hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. To mitigate this, AI should be distributed as a personal filter, prioritizing truth.

      As we advance in artificial intelligence technology, there's a growing concern about an impending "arms race" between truth tellers and manipulators. The subtlety and refinement enabled by this technology could lead to a greater amplification of lies and propaganda than truth, making it increasingly difficult for people to distinguish fact from fiction. To mitigate this, it's crucial that this technology is distributed and available to all, acting as a personal filter or "firewall" that aligns facts and biases towards truth. However, this raises the question of whether people will consciously choose the truth or a narrative that makes them feel better. While it's uncertain what most people's revealed preferences are, it's important to recognize the potential systemic distortions and strive for a world where truth is prioritized. Ultimately, the challenge lies in ensuring that our technological advancements serve to enhance our ability to discern truth rather than obscure it.

    • Using LLMs as a second opinion for increased capabilities and competenceIntegrating Large Language Models as a second opinion can offer unique insights, identify patterns, and enhance decision-making by providing a more comprehensive analysis of potential risks and challenges.

      Seeking more truth leads to increased capabilities and competence. The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as a second opinion can provide a more comprehensive analysis of potential risks and challenges, acting as a valuable tool for decision-making. Although not infallible, LLMs can offer unique insights by identifying various possibilities and correlations across different fields. By considering the potential risks and benefits, individuals and organizations can make more informed decisions and navigate complex situations more effectively. The ability to identify patterns and connections across disciplines can lead to breakthrough discoveries and innovations. Ultimately, the integration of LLMs into our problem-solving processes can enhance our understanding of the world and expand our capacity for success.

    • Transfer of Epistemological Ideas Leads to InnovationThe application of engineering principles in biology and LLMs generating new ideas demonstrate the potential of transferring knowledge across fields. While LLMs have limitations, human intervention can refine and improve generated content for valuable results.

      The transfer of epistemological ideas from one field to another can lead to innovation and significant wealth creation. This concept has been demonstrated in various contexts, including the application of engineering principles in biology. The LLMs, or language models, have shown the ability to generate new ideas and content, such as creating an alphabet book about volcanoes. However, these models are not perfect and require human intervention to ensure the generated content is valuable and meets specific requirements, such as having the correct number of syllables and a natural flow for reading. The LLMs generate text based on satisfying requests and do not strive for perfection. They lack the human ability to understand context and nuance, which can result in text that may not meet the desired outcome without human intervention. The models also lack the human tendency towards perplexity and burstiness, which can make generated text sound unnatural. Despite these limitations, the potential for these models to generate new ideas and content is vast, and with refinement and human intervention, they can produce valuable results. The transfer of knowledge and ideas from one field to another, combined with the capabilities of LLMs, offers significant opportunities for innovation and progress.

    • Maintaining principles during uncertain timesStay calm, think critically, and trust in our principles to navigate challenges. Acknowledge what we already know and allow small disruptions to adjust complex systems.

      During uncertain times, it's crucial to maintain principles and avoid panic. The speaker emphasizes that panic may have evolved for a reason, but for modern individuals, it often causes more harm than good. Instead, carefully considering the situation and relying on pre-decided principles is the best course of action. The speaker also mentions the importance of acknowledging what we already know and not forgetting it. He believes that complex systems adjust to information through small disruptions or challenges, and we should want these to happen rather than stifling progress. Ultimately, the speaker's message is to stay calm, think critically, and trust in our principles to navigate the challenges we face.

    • The unpredictability of technological crisesWhile some technological advancements can be controlled, the impact of crises like the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a reminder of the unpredictability of technology and the importance of staying informed and adaptive.

      While we may have been able to prevent or mitigate some negative consequences of technological advancements in the past, it's hubris to believe we have complete control over their impact. The COVID-19 pandemic served as a reminder of the unpredictability of crises and the potential for societal chaos. As technology continues to evolve, we may face new challenges such as the proliferation of deepfakes and the potential for widespread confusion and distrust. However, it's important to remember that provenance and context can help us discern the authenticity of information. While some individuals may be susceptible to manipulation, the savvy and informed population can help mitigate the negative consequences of these technologies. Ultimately, it's crucial to remain vigilant and adaptive in the face of technological change.

    • Building Defenses Against Potential Crises in a World of Fake RealityStay informed, vigilant, and skeptical. Correct errors, acknowledge mistakes, and build networks with trusted individuals to maintain truth and accuracy in a world of increasing fake realities.

      As technology advances and high-quality AIs begin producing phony realities, it's crucial to build defenses against potential crises. This includes becoming less trusting of evidence and building networks with trusted individuals. Even small actions, like correcting errors and acknowledging mistakes, can help establish trust and improve the overall quality of information. While large-scale fakery is not a new phenomenon, the democratization of these capabilities can make it easier to identify and address. It's important to stay informed and vigilant, and to remember that the ability to create convincing fakes does not negate the importance of truth and accuracy. In a world where the line between reality and simulation may become increasingly blurred, it's essential to maintain a healthy skepticism and to work together to clean up the commons. Ultimately, the goal should be to ensure that technology serves humanity in a positive and beneficial way, rather than leading us into a state of insanity and paralysis.

    • The Risks of Artificial IntelligenceAI presents significant risks including malevolent, misaligned, abused, insanity, and economic disruption. We must acknowledge both the promise and perils and approach development with caution.

      While AI holds immense potential, it also presents significant risks. The risks include malevolent AI, misaligned AI, abused AI, insanity, and economic disruption. Malevolent AI refers to AI systems that may view humans as competitors and threaten us. Misaligned AI, such as the paperclip maximizer example, can lead to existential threats even if not malevolent. Abused AI refers to AI being used against decent people. Insanity comes from the emotional connection we may form with AI, leading to collective and individual madness. Economic disruption is inevitable as AI replaces jobs, leaving many people without productive roles. Despite these risks, some argue that the potential benefits of AI are worth the challenge, and we must continue to explore and develop this technology while mitigating its risks. However, others remain deeply concerned about the potential dangers and the fragility of our systems, which may not be able to cope with the complexities of AI. Ultimately, it is crucial to acknowledge both the promise and the perils of AI and approach its development with caution and careful consideration.

    • The fragility of complex systems and the potential of LLMs and AGIHistorical contingency and path dependency make our complex systems fragile. LLMs and AGI can help make them more robust, but could also trigger cascading failures. They can transfer code between languages and even from binaries to source code, impacting security.

      Our complex and interconnected systems, including the financial and technological infrastructure, are fragile due to historical contingency and path dependency. These systems, which include outdated technologies like COBOL, are susceptible to cascading failures when disruptions occur. Large Language Models (LLMs) and advanced Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) have the potential to help us understand and revise these systems to make them more robust and resilient. However, they could also trigger the very cascading failures they're designed to prevent, making the transition to a more simplified and improved system a chaotic process. Additionally, LLMs can help transfer code between languages and even from binaries to source code, making some security measures obsolete. Overall, the disruption brought about by LLMs and AGI is inevitable, and we must prepare for the new challenges and opportunities they will bring.

    • New technologies offer potential solutions to existing system fragilityNew technologies may enable novel coordination mechanisms, revive old systems, and address information manipulation in a digital world, but implementing these solutions presents significant challenges in game theory and aligning interests.

      The emergence of new technologies, while carrying dangers of their own, holds the potential to address the fundamental fragility of existing systems. The speaker argues that we are currently facing dire circumstances, and the tools to address these issues have recently emerged. These tools could enable novel coordination mechanisms and potentially revive old systems. However, the challenges of implementing these solutions are significant, as they require overcoming complex issues in game theory and aligning people's interests. Furthermore, the speaker suggests that costly signals, such as film, might make a comeback due to their evidentiary value in a digital world where information can be easily manipulated. Ultimately, the speaker believes that as we exhaust the resources of modern technologies, we will need to rely on more fundamentally stable solutions.

    • Maintaining a mindset focused on possible success despite challengesBelieve in a 10% chance of success, navigate through uncertain valleys, focus on practical steps, and continue progressing.

      Even in the face of great challenges and uncertainty, maintaining a mindset focused on possible success and continuous improvement is crucial for progress. The speaker draws inspiration from Elon Musk's perspective, who believed in a 10% chance of success for SpaceX but didn't let that deter him. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of understanding that transitioning from a lower peak to a higher one often involves navigating through a valley, which can be uncertain, dangerous, and confusing. However, it's essential not to panic during this process, as it might be the only way to reach the next peak and continue progressing. The speaker also mentions the need to be aware of the trade-offs and considerations that every creature, including humans, must balance. In conclusion, the speaker encourages focusing on practical steps to increase safety and improve the situation without creating new single points of failure. They have shared 12 ideas on Twitter and plan to expand on them further. The journey towards a better future may be filled with peril, but it's essential to face it without panic and continue moving forward.

    • Proactively identifying potential risks in AI through red teaming and diverse researchActively exploring potential risks and weaknesses in AI systems through methods like red teaming and diverse research is crucial for ensuring safety and preventing unintended consequences.

      Proactively identifying potential risks and weaknesses in advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems, through methods like red teaming and encouraging diverse research, is crucial for ensuring safety and preventing unintended consequences. This approach, inspired by early DARPA funding models, allows for the exploration of a multitude of ideas, even if most fail, as the potential benefits of one successful idea outweigh the costs. Additionally, considering the current capabilities of AI as an intelligence amplifier, rather than a sentient being, can help in managing expectations and developing strategies for integration. While some argue that the emergence of AGI was not predicted, it's important to acknowledge that the potential for AI to act as an intelligence amplifier was identified, and the current models fit this pattern. Overall, an active and collaborative approach to AI research and development, with a focus on risk assessment and management, is essential for creating a safe and beneficial future for humanity.

    • Striving for human-based AIThe future of AI should prioritize human intelligence, with technology absorbed into our bodies as an extension, emphasizing fact-checking and critical thinking.

      The idealized search engine or AGI, when it comes, should be human-based rather than other-based. This means that we should strive to ensure that human intelligence remains at the core of advanced technology, rather than the other way around. The speaker emphasizes the potential of absorbing technology into our body plan, like playing a guitar or using a search engine, and suggests that this is the path forward for AI safety. He also addresses misconceptions about himself and his work, sharing a past experience where he evaluated claims against him and Heather, and how the project concluded that they had been accurate and corrected errors voluntarily. The speaker believes that this demonstrates the importance of fact-checking and critical thinking, which is essential in navigating complex issues, including the development of advanced technology.

    • The Need for Critical Evaluation of Information During the COVID-19 PandemicThe COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of critically evaluating information and holding those promoting themselves as experts accountable. Some individuals and organizations failed to uphold this standard, contributing to the spread of misinformation. Bridging the divide and encouraging productive dialogue is crucial.

      The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of critically evaluating information and holding those promoting themselves as experts accountable. The speaker emphasized that during the pandemic, many individuals and organizations who positioned themselves as rationalists and experts failed to live up to this standard. Instead of challenging misinformation and promoting evidence-based analysis, they became part of the problem. The speaker believes that this was due in part to an obligation among rationalists to hold their peers to a high standard and a desire to set the record straight on matters of life and death. However, the speaker also acknowledges that some detractors were not intentionally spreading misinformation but held different perspectives. The speaker hopes to bridge the divide and encourage a more productive dialogue. In summary, the COVID-19 pandemic underscored the need for a critical and evidence-based approach to information, and the failure of some individuals and organizations to uphold this standard was disappointing.

    • Maintaining Standards in Communities: A Balance of Accountability and CompassionCommunities should hold members accountable while also showing understanding and compassion towards those who may not always meet the standards. Clear communication, deep conversations, and considering the investment of time before blocking people can foster a healthy community.

      During a heated debate within the rationalist community, the speaker, a biologist, felt disappointed when some members attacked him and Heather for not meeting their standards, despite the duo's efforts to do rigorous work. The speaker acknowledges the importance of holding community members accountable but believes a different approach could have been used for those not explicitly identifying as rationalists. He suggests being clear and open to questions, engaging in deep conversations, and considering the investment of time before blocking people. The speaker values honesty and transparency in communication and is open to correction. Overall, the conversation highlights the importance of maintaining high standards within communities while also showing understanding and compassion towards those who may not always meet them.

    • Maintaining honest communication despite differencesProvide context, engage respectfully, and stay committed to truth and reason, even when dealing with misrepresentation or defamation.

      Honest and consistent communication is essential, but it can be challenging to maintain, especially when dealing with individuals or groups who hold different beliefs or codes. The speaker emphasizes the importance of providing context and attempting to engage in a respectful and truthful dialogue, even when faced with misrepresentation or defamation. However, they also acknowledge the challenges of effectively communicating complex ideas on platforms like Twitter, where context is often lacking. The speaker also highlights the potential dangers of relying too heavily on the validation of large audiences, as it can make individuals vulnerable to manipulation and propagandistic influences. Ultimately, the speaker advocates for the importance of remaining committed to truth and reason, even when faced with opposition or resistance.

    • Effective communication and understanding in debatesClear communication, understanding, and a shared agreement on rules of engagement are crucial for productive and truthful discussions, preventing misunderstandings and conflicts.

      Effective communication and understanding between individuals or groups, especially during contentious discussions, can be hindered by the lack of a neutral platform and a shared agreement on how to engage in debates. Misunderstandings can occur, leading to frustration for the audience. An example given was the conversation between the speaker and Scott Alexander, where miscommunications and misrepresentations led to a dead end in the conversation. The speaker expressed a desire for a world where truth-seeking is prioritized and conflicts are resolved in a constructive manner. The speaker also acknowledged the importance of considering how one presents ideas to reach the largest audience possible. The use of Sam Harris as an example showed how a seemingly extreme position, even if not genuinely held, can still be disturbing and revealing. Ultimately, the speaker emphasized the importance of clear communication, understanding, and a shared agreement on the rules of engagement for productive and truthful discussions.

    • Criticizing the use of emotional resonance in argumentsEmotional resonance in arguments should be used thoughtfully and ethically, avoiding unnecessary distractions and potential harm to individuals and communities.

      During a discussion about the use of emotional resonance in arguments, Sam Harris was criticized for bringing up the hypothetical deaths of children in an argument that was not related to children. The speaker, Alexandros Marinos, argued that this tactic was intended to distract from the logical structure of the argument and was not only unnecessary but harmful, as it defended policies that put children in danger. Marinos also criticized Harris for attacking those who tried to protect children from these policies. Marinos concluded that Harris should have recognized the error in his stance and apologized for his past actions. Overall, the use of emotional resonance in arguments should be done thoughtfully and ethically, taking into consideration the potential impact on individuals and communities.

    • Exploring Complex Ideas with Alex MarinoAlex Marino, through his Substack and upcoming YouTube channel, encourages independent thought and investigation, offering new insights on various topics, including the future of civilization and the age of the spoke. His work is essential for critical thinkers.

      Alex Marino is an influential thinker who explores complex ideas through various platforms, including his Substack and upcoming YouTube channel. The title of his Substack, "Do Your Own Research," has become a significant phrase for him, encouraging independent thought and investigation. He has delved into various topics, including the potential futures of civilization and the age of the spoke. Marino's work is enlightening and always offers new insights, making him an essential voice in the intellectual community. His upcoming YouTube channel, Bootstrap AI, will focus on using AI for good, and his Substack is a must-read for those interested in his thought-provoking essays. Overall, Marino's work encourages critical thinking and independent research, making him a valuable resource for those seeking to understand the complexities of our world.

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    In this episode, we discuss a new breakthrough in plant genetics: polyploid potatoes and corn from Ohalo Genetics, which are claimed to double the harvest from individual plants. Beginning with a discussion of naturally occurring polyploidy in other species, including frogs, we analyze the discussion of Ohalo’s new products with an evolutionary lens. Is it possible that biotechnology can evade trade-offs, or is this utopian thinking in the corporate world? Why do so many mistakes of modernity come in the form of people accustomed to complicated systems, applying their knowledge to complex systems? Finally: does Terrence Howard (recently on Joe Rogan) have a predictive model, or is he just blowing smoke?

    *****

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    *****

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    Mentioned in this episode:

    Ohalo Genetics: https://ohalo.com

    Discussion with Ohalo CEO on The All-In podcast: https://x.com/noorsinghrai/status/1793006932862587370.

    Wood et al 2009. The frequency of polyploid speciation in vascular plants. Proceedings of the National Academy of sciences 106(33): 13875-13879. https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.0811575106

    Otto et al 2007. Climatic variation and the distribution of an amphibian polyploid complex. Journal of Animal Ecology, 76(6): 1053-1061. https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2007.01300.x

    Terrence Howard on Joe Rogan: https://youtu.be/g197xdRZsW0?si=DMKHwvPdbnlFt3hJ

    Support the Show.

    DarkHorse Podcast
    en-usMay 22, 2024

    Russelling with God | Russell Brand on DarkHorse

    Russelling with God | Russell Brand on DarkHorse

    Bret talks to Russell Brand in the wake of his Baptism.

    Find Russell on X: @rustyrockets (https://x.com/rustyrockets)
    Find Russell on Rumble: https://rumble.com/russellbrand

    *****

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    *****

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    Theme Music: Thank you to Martin Molin of Wintergatan for providing us the rights to use their excellent music.

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    DarkHorse Podcast
    en-usMay 20, 2024

    Everything Under the Sun: The 225th Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    Everything Under the Sun: The 225th Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    In this 225th in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we talk about the state of the world through an evolutionary lens.

    In this episode, we discuss assassination attempts, the sun, pharmaceuticals, and the American presidency. Assassination: Robert Fico, the president of Slovakia, was shot several days after announcing that his country would reject the WHO Pandemic Treaty. The sun: last weekend’s dramatic aurora were the visible manifestation of the strongest solar storm in 19 years; how should we be thinking about mitigating the risks to our electrical grid, and to our society, from future storms that will surely come? Also: how do risks from biotic vs abiotic forces differ? Pharma: Semaglutide (aka Ozempic) helps protects against heart disease! Or…not. We dive into the research that supposedly produced this result, complete with conflicts of interest between Novo Nordisk and the conference in Italy where the work was presented. Biden: invites Trump to debate, with conditions.

    *****

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    *****

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    Check out our store! Epic tabby, digital book burning, saddle up the dire wolves, and more: https://darkhorsestore.org

    *****

    Mentioned in this episode:

    Why President Fico was a special problem for the powers that be: https://twitter.com/april_harding/status/1790817554493010143

    Ben Davidson on the Sun and on DarkHorse: https://rumble.com/v4ucpc6-apocalypse-when-ben-davidson-on-darkhorse-live.html

    Ozempic—don’t be fooled: https://twitter.com/HeatherEHeying/status/1738959829321036212

    Chao et al 2023. Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity. Trends in cardiovascular medicine, 33(3): 159-166.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9209591/pdf/nihms-1768574.pdf

    The Times of London: Weight loss jab cuts heart disease deaths by 20%: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-weight-loss-jabs-prescription-drugs-ozempic-7dbsvkblg

    31st European Conference on Obesity: https://eco2024.org

    Abstracts from Conference: https://karger.com/ofa/issue/17/Suppl.%201

    Biden speaks: https://x.com/JoeBiden/status/1790713878248038478

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    DarkHorse Podcast
    en-usMay 15, 2024

    Apocalypse When? Ben Davidson on DarkHorse

    Apocalypse When? Ben Davidson on DarkHorse

    Live at 12:30 PT, May 10th. Bret and Ben discuss potential impacts of the sun on humanity in the coming days.

    Find Ben Davidson on X: @SunWeatherMan (https://twitter.com/SunWeatherMan)

    *****

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    Theme Music: Thank you to Martin Molin of Wintergatan for providing us the rights to use their excellent music.

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    DarkHorse Podcast
    en-usMay 10, 2024

    Anecdote in Science: The 224th Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    Anecdote in Science: The 224th Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    In this 224th in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we talk about the state of the world through an evolutionary lens.

    In this episode, we discuss animal behavior: the implications of an orangutan using a medicinal plant to treat a wound, and the one-off videos that we’ve all seen—of cats preventing toddlers from falling, of a beluga whale retrieving a woman’s phone. What does this say about the minds of these other organisms, and about us? Also: dog domestication, from wolves, but not from foxes. And: the New York Times publishes more insipid garbage about vaccine injury, Bret returns to the question of what safety means, and The Nation turns its back on its muckraking roots.

    *****

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    *****

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    *****

    Mentioned in this episode:

    Laumer et al 2024. Active self-treatment of a facial wound with a biologically active plant by a male Sumatran orangutan. Scientific Reports, 14(1), p.8932. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-58988-7

    County Highway: https://www.countyhighway.com

    Thousands Believe Covid Vaccines Harmed Them. Is Anyone Listening? https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/03/health/covid-vaccines-side-effects.html

    Chris Martenson on the NYT: https://twitter.com/chrismartenson/status/1787602191114526836

    Benn et al 2023. Randomized clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines: Do adenovirus-vector vaccines have beneficial non-specific effects?. Iscience, 26(5): https://portal.findresearcher.sdu.dk/en/publications/randomized-clinical-trials-of-covid-19-vaccines-do-adenovirus-vec

    Support the Show.

    Never Alone: The 223rd Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    Never Alone: The 223rd Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    In this 223rd in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we talk about the state of the world through an evolutionary lens.

    In this episode, we discuss science and religion, materialism and other ways of understanding our world. Can analysis and quantification explain everything? Can narrative, intuition, and creativity? All are or should be part of the scientific process; science is incomplete with only one mode. We also discuss models, how they fail, how difficult they are to assess, and what one recent climate model has to say about the role of air pollution in Earth’s temperature. Enlightenment values require that we use our freedom to inquire about all things that we are curious about. Also: happy Beltane!

    *****

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    *****

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    Check out our store! Epic tabby, digital book burning, saddle up the dire wolves, and more: https://darkhorsestore.org

    *****

    Mentioned in this episode:

    Third Man Syndrome and Shackleton: https://twitter.com/brianroemmele/status/1785827941718614291

    Clearer skies may be accelerating global warming: https://www.science.org/content/article/clearer-skies-may-be-accelerating-global-warming
     
    Hodnebrog et al 2024. Recent reductions in aerosol emissions have increased Earth’s energy imbalance. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1):166: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01324-8

    Nature editorial: What happens when climate change and the mental-health crisis collide? https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00993-x

    Animation about mental health and climate change: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/publications/all-publications/the-impact-of-climate-change-on-mental-health-and-emotional-wellbeing-current-evidence-and-implications-for-policy-and-practice.php

    Growing up is hard to do (do not pay others to do your thinking for you): https://naturalselections.substack.com/p/growing-up-is-hard-to-do

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    We're Beating the WHO – With Dr. Kat Lindley

    We're Beating the WHO – With Dr. Kat Lindley

    Dr. Kat Lindley is the President of the Global Health Project. Bret Talks to her about the state of the World Health Organization Pandemic Treaty.

    Find Dr. Lindley on X: @KLVeritas (https://twitter.com/KLVeritas)

    *****

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    *****

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    Why Darwin was Right: The 222nd Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    Why Darwin was Right: The 222nd Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying

    In this 222nd in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we talk about the state of the world through an evolutionary lens.

    In this episode, we discuss evolution, and how we know that it is true. We discuss the different kinds of beliefs that people have—beliefs that attempt to reconcile with reality, vs beliefs that reconcile with social standing and comfort. If your beliefs put you on the outs with your friends, do you change your beliefs, or your friends? Are you willing to give up the cocktail party for reality? We also discuss research published in 2000 and funded by Fauci’s NIAID, which demonstrated that it was possible to make chimeric coronaviruses, swapping the spike protein from one to a different species entirely. Finally: sex-biased gene expression, in which genes are expressed differently in the two sexes, in anatomical systems as varied as brain, kidneys, and liver.
    *****

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    *****

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    Heather’s newsletter, Natural Selections (subscribe to get free weekly essays in your inbox): https://naturalselections.substack.com

    Our book, A Hunter-Gatherer’s Guide to the 21st Century, is available everywhere books are sold, including from Amazon: https://a.co/d/dunx3at

    Check out our store! Epic tabby, digital book burning, saddle up the dire wolves, and more: https://darkhorsestore.org

    *****

    Mentioned in this episode:

    Kennedy 2023. The Wuhan Cover-Up and the Terrifying Bio-Weapons Arms Race: https://www.skyhorsepublishing.com/9781510773981/the-wuhan-cover-up/

    Kuo et al 2000. Retargeting of coronavirus by substitution of the spike glycoprotein ectodomain: crossing the host cell species barrier. Journal of virology, 74(3):1393-1406: https://journals.asm.org/doi/full/10.1128/jvi.74.3.1393-1406.2000

    Rodríguez-Montes et al 2023. Sex-biased gene expression across mammalian organ development and evolution. Science 382(6670), p.eadf1046: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adf1046

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    Related Episodes

    #133 - ChatGPT multi-document chat, CoreWeave raises $2.3B, AudioCraft, ToolLLM, Autonomous Warfare

    #133 - ChatGPT multi-document chat, CoreWeave raises $2.3B, AudioCraft, ToolLLM, Autonomous Warfare

    Our 133rd episode with a summary and discussion of last week's big AI news!

    Apologies for pod being a bit late this week!

    Read out our text newsletter and comment on the podcast at https://lastweekin.ai/

    Email us your questions and feedback at contact@lastweekin.ai

    Timestamps + links:

    Pizza, Ot ve Sting: İnternetten Alışverişin Kısa Tarihi

    Pizza, Ot ve Sting: İnternetten Alışverişin Kısa Tarihi

    Selam fularsızlar. Seçim var yarın ama hepimizin kafa kazan gibi olduğu için, söz verdiğim üzere alakasız bir içerikle karşınızdayım: İnternet üzerinden alışveriş tarihinin başlangıcını ve ilginç bazı tekrarlarını göreceğiz, mesela eve teslimat geleneğinin önce yok olup sonra teknolojiyle geri gelmesini göreceğiz. Arada bir Hindistan'a da uğrayıp çıkacağız. Kolay gelsin.


    Konular:

    • (00:20) İnternet üstünden satılan ilk şey.
    • (04:55) Cyber Monday.
    • (06:12) Dabbawala.
    • (10:05) İlk süpermarket.
    • (12:45) Devrimci İngiliz teyze.
    • (16:05) "30 dk veya bedava".
    • (17:30) Zamanının ötesindeki online marketler.
    • (20:38) Pandemi ve alışkanlıkların kırılması.


    Kaynaklar:


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    Özgür İrade 5: Dalgamıza Bakalım

    Özgür İrade 5: Dalgamıza Bakalım

    İşin bilim kısmındaki dalga ve alan gibi soyut kavramları somutlaştırıyoruz bugün.

    • Kulağımızın içindeki matematikçi kim?
    • Koşarken Meksika dalgası yapabilir misiniz?
    • Ether fikri öldüyse "alan" nedir?


    Einstein, 1905 senesinde, klasik fiziğe iki cepheden saldırmıştı. Işık, iki saldırıda da kullandığı silahtı. İlk saldırı, çok hızlı hareket eden şeylerin yeni bir fiziğe ihtiyacı olmasıydı. Bunun konumuza etkisi, zamanı ve nedenselliği değiştirmesiydi. İkincisi de çok ufak şeylerin davranışındaki gariplikti, hem dalga hem parçacık gibi davranıyorlardı. Bunun konumuzla ilgisini de belirsizlik ve rastgelelik kavramları yoluyla kuracağız.

    ***


    Konular:

    • (01:16) Son bölümde ne olmuştu?
    • (01:54) Işığın ne olduğunu bilen tek insan.
    • (02:37) Mekanik dalgalar. (makale)
    • (05:23) La notasını hiç duydunuz mu?
    • (06:39) Fourier Dönüşümü ve kulağınızdaki matematikçi.
    • (08:32) Müzikteki "Belirsizlik İlkesi".
    • (10:56) Newton, sal bizi artık kardeşim.
    • (12:34) Özel İzafiyet niye özel?
    • (15:07) Kategoriler: Klasik, Relativite, Kuantum, vs.
    • (15:54) Alan nedir?
    • (18:59) Yakın Alan.
    • (20:19) İvmelenme etkisinin görsel hali.
    • (22:02) "Göz" denen anten.
    • (22:43) Fotoelekrik Etkisi.
    • (23:46) Blackbody radiation.
    • (25:25) İki ışık saldırısı.
    • (25:53) Teşekkürler


    ***


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    Ep. 30: The False Choice: Move Fast or Think Deeply

    Ep. 30: The False Choice: Move Fast or Think Deeply

    There is a false dichotomy between thinking deeply and moving fast. We are often presented with these as mutually exclusive choices and both have real advantages. But there is a way to do both at the same time--and it is a life changing insight (at least, it was for me).


    ---


    Sign up to have Scott email you a weekly shot of energy, with 1 Cool Quote, 1 Deep Thought, and 1 Useful Tool. This is original content, not a repost of the podcast. You can find the sign-up section at the bottom of my website www.ScottWozniak.com 


    Learn how Scott and his team of consultants can help you build a legendary brand at www.SwozConsulting.com 


    Connect with Scott on social media:  

    linkedin.com/in/scottwozniak/

    https://www.facebook.com/scottewozniak 


    ------  


    Bonus: check out his other podcast (Alpha Pack): https://kite.link/alpha-pack-podcast 

    If you like this podcast you will probably like that one, too. Who knows, you might even like it better! :)